I know a lot of folks believe that adding DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs would be incredible. I have been looking into that possibility to see if it is a good idea. Would it be best for the Chiefs offense to add Hopkins?
I first looked into his past performance to see what his output could be. I used the eight years prior to 2021 to develop average stats for his production. (2021 and 2022 were partial years, 2021 he was injured, 2022 he was suspended for PED use). Here is a rundown.
Receptions 747
Targets 1,211 (over 8 seasons averages 151 targets/season)
Total yards 10,009
Catch rate 61.7%
Yds/rec 13.4
Yds/target 8.27
Total YAC 2562
YAC/Target 2.12
One thing that jumps out is just how durable (2021 notwithstanding) he has been, only missing two games in eight years.
I know a lot of people are in awe of the 1,000+ yds season, and he has had a lot of them, topping that mark in six seasons. Interesting fact: Hopkins has had only one season when he had 1,000+ yds with fewer than 150 targets (2014 with 127 targets and 1,210 yds). Also, only one WR in the last 10 years of the NFL has topped 1,000 yds with fewer than 104 targets (Sammy Watkins with Buffalo).
In the last three seasons the Chiefs have averaged 627 targets per season (614 last year). Last year Juju had 101 targets and Hardman had 34. Since they are no longer with the team that means that their targets are available. 13+101+34 = 148 available targets (considering the 627 average targets, Juju’s 101, Hardman’s 34). So theoretically there would be enough targets for Hopkins to get to 1,000 yds.
However.
Moore had just 33 targets last year
Toney had just 17 targets last year
Rashee Rice had 0 targets last year
Richie James had 0 targets last year
If Hopkins were to be targeted 148 times then all of the above receivers would split 50 targets between them.
Here are some stats for WRs currently on the roster.
Skyy Moore 2022
22 receptions
33 targets
67% catch rate
250 total receiving yds
11.36 yds/catch
7.58 yds/target
148 total YAC
4.48 YAC/target
Kadarius Toney 2022
14 receptions
17 targets
82% catch rate
171 total receiving yds
12.21 yds/catch
10.06 yds/target
102 total YAC
6.0 YAC/target
Richie James 2022
Receptions…57
Targets……70
Total yds…569
Catch rate 81.4%
Yds/rec……10
Yds/target….8.13
Total YAC….176
YAC/reception…3.09
YAC/target……2.51
Juju
78 receptions
101 targets
77% catch rate
933 total receiving yds
12.0 yds/catch
9.24 yds/target
465 total YAC
4.6 YAC/target
MVS
42 receptions
81 targets
52% catch rate
687 total receiving yds
16.36 yds/catch
8.48 yds/target
149 total YAC
1.84 YAC/target
DeAndre Hopkins
Receptions 747
Targets 1,211 (over 8 seasons averages 151 targets/season)
Total yards 10,009
Catch rate 61.7%
Yds/rec 13.4
Yds/target 8.27
Total YAC 2562
YAC/Target 2.12
If you project Hopkins at 100 targets (like Juju had last year) and a 62% catch rate you get total yards of about 830 - fewer yards than Juju's 933.
MVS had 81 targets last season with a 52% catch rate, 687 yards, 8.48 yds/target. I have recently thought that a trade of MVS would free up some cap space and targets - meaning some combination of deep-threat WRs already on the team might be a better option than a full year of MVS. Moore, Toney, Rice, James, Justyn Ross?, John Ross?, etc. That probably won't happen but I might be okay with it if it did.
So. Is DeAndre Hopkins a good receiver? Yes. Could the Chiefs win a Super Bowl with him (healthy)? Yes. Is he replaceable given receivers the Chiefs have on the roster right now? I say yes, and at a much lower cost (do you think Hopkins would sign for less $ than MVS - probably not). I don't think there is any way he gets 150 targets in this offense. And Toney, Moore and James have already shown they are competent receivers. While I would be fine if the Chiefs did get him, I would rather get all the young talent enough targets to show what they can do - I think they have a higher upside.
One more random fact, in the last 19 years (38 rosters/teams) 8 WRs have been 30+yrs old at the time they played in a Super Bowl - none in the last 10 years.
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