I have seen several people speculating about the possibility of Mahomes throwing for 6,000+ yards and 60+ touchdowns and I decided to see what that would look like and whether it is possible and/or likely.
To do this I looked back at 10 years of data. I looked at the most yards/season, most touchdowns/season, most touchdowns/attempt and most yards/attempt in order to find an upper limit in those statistics to see, first, if a 6,000-yd/60TD season is possible/likely. I have adjusted all numbers to be 17-game equivalents (multiplying by 17/16 = 1.0625 as necessary).
The most pass attempts (sometimes I use the term 'targets' instead of attempts but I mean the same thing) in a season was a 17-game-adjusted 732 by Pittsburgh in 2018.
The most yards in a season was a 17-game-adjusted 5,784 by Denver in 2013.
The most touchdowns/target is 50/583 = .086 by Mahomes/KC in 2018 (this is a very large outlier BTW).
The most yards/target = 8.8 by Mahomes/KC in 2018 (this is also a very large outlier...)
If we use these figures we can build an ultimate season as an upper limit.
732 targets * 8.8 YDs/target = 6,442 yards
732 targets *.086 = 63 touchdowns
So, yes, the upper limit of all quarterback play over the last 10 years would make it possible and if you want to know the minimum of targets that would make it 6,000/60 possible it would be 695 attempts, 6,120 yards and 60 touchdowns.
However. Those figures use the 8.8 YDs/target and .086 touchdowns/target. Both of those figures are unicorn outliers compared with other years and other outstanding quarterbacks. As perspective, most of the years' best figures for YDs/target are in the 7.6 to 8.2 range, and the .086 ratio is very high also.
So, what about using Mahomes's averages to see what 6,000/60 would look like? His career TD/target = .0641 and his YDs/target is 8.1. Using these numbers he would need 936 pass attempts to reach 60 touchdowns (and have 7,582 total yards). Over the last three seasons, Mahomes has averaged 631 pass attempts.
Let's go back to the unicorn season where Mahomes would need 695 attempts. How would that look?
First, here are the yardage stats for receivers from last season:
JJSS 933 on 101 targets
Hardman 297 on 34 targets