3 draft prospects we value less than most analysts

With NFL Draft week finally upon us, Arrowhead Pride’s writers have finalized their opinions on this year’s draft class. For months, we’ve been debating them in our group chats, arguing where they should go in the draft.

We often get excited about a prospect together. But there are also times we generally agree that a particular prospect is being overvalued elsewhere.

The Athletic has been keeping tabs on those opinions, combining a number of draft rankings to form a Top 100 consensus Big Board that they have updated throughout draft season. I looked at the latest one, finding three prospects that are ranked more highly than we have them.

Jordan Addison, wide receiver, USC

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Consensus rank: 15th overall, third among wide receivers

Addison has been a high-profile prospect since Day 1 of his three-year college career. As a true freshman at the University of Pittsburgh, he earned a spot on the The Athletic’s freshman All-American team, making an impact as both a receiver and a returner. The following season, he ramped it up to become college football’s most prolific receiver, winning the 2021 Biletnikoff Award while accumulating 1,600 total yards and 17 touchdowns as a true sophomore.

Still one year away from NFL eligibility, Addison transferred to USC — where he continued to be an impact player. He earned first-team All-Pac 12 honors, helping the Trojans earn a spot in the conference championship game. An ankle injury prevented him from playing in the Cotton Bowl, forcing him to start his preparation for the NFL Combine early.

Addison checked in to the NFL Scouting Combine at 5 feet 11 and 173 pounds, posting a weight in the third percentile for historical wide receivers — and pairing short arms and small hands with that frame. His athletic testing also left a lot to be desired. He recorded a 40-yard dash time that ranked 21st among this year’s receivers.

On the field, Addison is a smooth, effective route runner at all levels of the field. He combines clean footwork with an understanding of how to get himself open based on the coverage — but does it all from a smaller, weaker frame that may not work as well against the more physically-gifted defensive backs he’ll face at the next level. He also doesn’t offer his quarterback a favorable catch radius — and rarely breaks tackles after the catch.

Seen as a potential first-round option, we believe Addison is closer to the Day 2 tier of receiver prospects. Our staff ranked him as the fifth wide receiver in the class.

Myles Murphy

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Consensus rank: Ninth overall, third among edge defenders

Murphy is another prospect that has been a potential top pick since his first day on campus. The former five-star recruit came to Clemson as the nation’s No. 1 EDGE recruit — and then backed it up with 18.5 sacks, 36 tackles for loss and six forced fumbles over three collegiate seasons.

At the Combine, Murphy checked in at 6 feet 5 and 268 pounds, showing off good 33 3/4-inch arms but uniquely small 8 1/2-inch hands. At Clemson’s pro day, Murphy recorded a 4.53-second 40-yard dash, a 31-inch vertical leap and a 7.21-second three-cone drill.

On the field, Murphy looks the part before the snap, where he shows off a thick frame. He has a pretty good first step, too. He can stay in control during a block and only rarely gets truly overpowered. But we have not been impressed with Murphy’s pass-rushing execution; he rarely has a clean win. He doesn't have a big trait for a calling card — which is why he comes off as a boring prospect.

I can see why he’s considered a safe, solid pick — but to us, he appears closer to a rotational piece than a player worthy of a high pick. We rank Murphy as the 12th-best edge defender.

Bryan Bresee

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Consensus rank: 17th overall, second among defensive tackles

The other highly-touted defensive line prospect from Clemson is another one we think is overrated. Bresee was the No. 1 overall recruit in 2020’s high-school class, committing to Clemson and becoming a first-team All-ACC player as a true freshman. Over three seasons, Bresee earned nine sacks, 15 tackles for loss and four passes defended.

But Bresee’s first season was also his most successful. In 2021, Bresee tore his ACL, shortening his sophomore campaign to just four games. Then in 2022, Bresee dealt with the tragic loss of his sister — something that obviously could have impacted how he played.

Bresee measured 6 feet 5 and 298 pounds at the Combine, with big 10 1/4-inch paws and 32 1/2-inch arms. His athletic testing was excellent, highlighted by running a 40-yard dash in 4.86 seconds.

Bresee moves very well for his size; he moves around the field like a dancing bear. This makes him an excellent option to both play inside and outside — or in a creative pass-rushing scheme, being used as a looper or stunter.

But we think he plays too high, making it easier for offensive linemen to latch onto him. He’s too light to play in the A-gap — and may not be enough of a penetrator to consistently be a B-gap player, either.

In order to meet pre-draft expectations, Bresee will need a scheme that fits him very well — and we don’t think the Chiefs fit that bill. The staff ranked Bresee as this draft’s fourth defensive tackle.