FanPost

What's More Likely?


Lot of back and forth on Twitter with Chiefs fans regarding the WR / Tackle / Edge discussion. Some of it seems outright panicky.

I thought I'd throw a thought experiment out there. You play this way - tell me What's More Likely? In each case, rank what you think the percentage of this outcome would be:

  • That Kadarius Toney successfully replaces JuJu as WR1. That means that he would have to stay as healthy (JuJu only missed 1.5 games last year) and have 78 receptions / 933 yards / 3 TDs or better.
  • That Jawaan Taylor successfully replaces Orlando Brown Jr. as Left Tackle. In 1,131 snaps Brown had 6 penalties; allowed 4 sacks; 7 QB hits; and 47 pressures. In 1,095 snaps Taylor had 7 penalties; allowed 5 sacks; 0 QB hits, and 16 pressures. All but 18 Taylor's snaps were at RT of course.
  • That Lucas Niang comes back healthy and as good or better than Andrew Wylie. In 1,093 snaps last year Wylie had 8 penalties; allowed 9 sacks; 5 QB hits, and 49 pressures. Back in '21, before injury, Niang got in just about half a season. He played 524 snaps, had 3 penalties, allowed 2 sacks, 2 QB hits, and 26 pressures.
I know KT has to stay relatively healthy. But I think there's a 55% or better chance that he does, and if he does he easily exceeds JuJu's production.

I really, really like Taylor. I think he transitions to LT WAY better than Brown did, and he will become the best pass blocking LT we've had in a long, long time. 75% confidence level in this move.

Before he got hurt Niang seemed like he'd become an upgrade over Wylie - maybe not Schwartz level, but serviceable at least. I THINK he can be as good as Wylie... but I'm not certain by any means. Call it 55% sure.

So for me - Taylor 75%, KT 55% and Niang 55%. I truly don't know which one I worry about more.

If I'm right about Taylor and Niang then the offense can cheat to help Niang and be an upgrade over '22. Then you could look for WR in the draft as a hedge against Toney's health. But if I'm wrong about either Taylor OR Niang - wrong in a bad way - then they HAVE to go get a tackle early in the draft.

If the Chiefs aren't as certain as I am about Taylor truly making that transition to LT, or about Niang's health or ability, then I'd look for them to get their favorite tackle in the first round. But if they believe in Taylor and Niang, there are some really interesting WRs in this draft, and that would be the prudent move.

How are you feeling about the potential of these three new starters in the Chiefs offense?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.