Chiefs-Chargers Week 7 predictions from Arrowhead Pride

For the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 6 game against the Denver Broncos, Arrowhead Pride contributors once again overestimated both the point spread and the amount of scoring in Kansas City’s 19-8 win. The Chiefs’ offense did gain plenty of yards — so with a better red-zone performance, the staff’s aggregate prediction of a 32-16 win might have been a pretty good guess. (Jared Sapp’s call for a 27-13 Kansas City win was the best of the week). Our readers were less convinced a blowout was coming. Nearly half (46%) thought it would be the easy win it turned out to be.

In Week 7, the Chiefs face the Los Angeles Chargers on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 5.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

Nate Christensen (@natech32)

The 2-3 Chargers are desperate. You can see it every time they show Brandon Staley on the sideline. They’re all-in for a playoff push — but so far, things haven’t gone their way. Wide receiver Mike Williams is out and their defense continues to underwhelm. And yet, they’re going to make this game close. Every Chiefs-Chargers game comes down to a few plays. I expect that to happen again — but Kansas City is too talented (and well-coached) to fail.

Chiefs 27, Chargers 24

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

While Kansas City’s recent dominance over the Chargers isn’t quite as impressive as the 16 consecutive wins the team has now whipped off against the Broncos, it’s still pretty significant; after spending 50 years going blow-for-blow with their AFC West rival, the Chiefs are 15-5 against them since Andy Reid came to town. So it’s reasonable to expect a win — but just like last week’s matchup against Denver, we should expect this to be a pretty close game.

Chiefs 27, Chargers 20

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

This feels like the first big game of the Chiefs’ season. The matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars matchup was a disappointment, but this one feels like it will look like many past battles between these two teams. The Chiefs’ offense knows how to attack Los Angeles, and should get into a rhythm — but I also think the Chargers’ offense can push Kansas City’s defense as much as any team has to this point. Patrick Mahomes has a statement game to pull this one out.

Chiefs 31, Chargers 28

Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

The Chargers are on pace to waste yet another year of quarterback Justin Herbert’s prime by playing undisciplined and sloppy football. They have talent on their roster from top to bottom. They are also minus 1 in takeaways and are the league’s sixth-most penalized team. Los Angeles always gets up for their matchups against the Chiefs, and I wouldn’t expect anything different this time around. This will be a good test for the Chiefs' defense to see how they hold up against an elite quarterback. Kicking field goals will not be good enough in this one. The Chiefs are going to need to put the ball in the end zone.

Chiefs 27, Chargers 23

Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

AFC West matchups are difficult to predict — and the Chargers may be playing for their season when they visit Arrowhead on Sunday. With the caveat that three divisional games in a row is a tall order no matter the state of the opponents, I am going to take the Chiefs to take this one in a high-scoring affair. The Chargers have — as usual — been a team that for which nothing seems to go right. The team that is coming off 10 days of rest will outperform the squad coming off a Monday Night Football turnaround. With the extra prep time, expect the Chiefs to have some new wrinkles on offense — and exploit a beat-up Chargers’ secondary.

Chiefs 38, Chargers 27

Stephen Serda (@StephenSerda)

I know the Chiefs’ offense has been struggling — and these division contests with the Chargers always seem to be close calls. The Chargers are 2-3 and desperately need a win — but against the Kansas City defense, I don’t think they get things figured out. So far this year, the Los Angeles defense has been disappointing — and even if it keeps things close against the Chiefs, it’s the Kansas City defense that will be the deciding factor in the game. I doubt we’ll get many answers about the Chiefs’ offense on Sunday, but I believe their pass rush will give Justin Herbert more than he can handle.

Chiefs 27, Chargers 24

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

It’s never really easy against the Chargers, but Mahomes and the Chiefs often seem to find a way. In Week 2 of last season, rookie cornerback Jaylen Watson had the now-famous 99-yard pick-six to put Kansas City on top. With 31 seconds remaining in Week 10’s matchup, tight end Travis Kelce scored his third touchdown of the game for another victory. Why would we expect things to be any different in 2023? The Chiefs are 5-1 — with a defense that’s outplaying the offense. The Chargers arrive in Arrowhead at 2-3 — and every one of their games has been decided by a single score. Look for Kansas City to continue developing its offensive identity, getting Pacheco and Rice involved. But we all know that it’s Kelce and Chris Jones who will likely continue to frustrate Los Angeles. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mecole Hardman plays and makes an impact in his return. I also wouldn’t be surprised if this one comes down to the final drive. In that (and pretty much every) case, Patrick Mahomes > Justin Herbert.

Chiefs 28, Chargers 21

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

I’m going to come out and say it: I don’t get the panic involving the Chiefs offense and its passing attack. Coming into this week, Kansas City ranks sixth in passing yardage. According to DVOA, the Chiefs rank sixth offensively. Sure... it doesn’t look like the days of old with downfield passing and the “Legion of Zoom,” but this balanced attack featuring Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice has been good enough for the best record in the league — and meanwhile, the defense (ranked ninth) is the best it's been during the Patrick Mahomes Era of Kansas City football. Los Angeles is quietly worse on both sides of the ball. But it is a desperate team — and this is still a division game. As they welcome Charles Omenihu back, the Chiefs get the Chargers’ best shot. But they’ll build a lead and hold on — despite a late L.A. surge — to take strong control of the division.

Chiefs 30, Chargers 22

Prop bets (from Pete Sweeney)

Head on over to DraftKings Sportsbook and take... all the Rashee Rice props. It’s time.

• Anytime touchdown (+230)
• Over 36.5 yards (-110)
• Alternate receiving yards: 90 or more (+1000)