Chiefs’ opening odds for every game of the 2022 season

You already know that the Kansas City Chiefs’ 2022 regular-season schedule has been released. We have broken down the schedule on our podcast channel, our John Dixon has prepared you for the best and worst games and our Ron Kopp has provided analysis on what the Chiefs’ record might be.

(Spoiler: Ron’s way-too-early prediction has the Chiefs going 12-5.)

Does Las Vegas agree with Ron?

Shortly after the regular-seasons schedule was released, our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook revealed their opening spreads (four months in advance). Going by point spreads, let’s take a look at the Chiefs' final record:

• Week 1: The Chiefs are favored to beat the Cardinals on the road by 3 points (1-0).
• Week 2: The Chiefs are favored to beat the Chargers at home by 3 points (2-0).
• Week 3: The Chiefs are favored to beat the Colts on the road by 2.5 points (3-0).
• Week 4: The Chiefs are underdogs against the Bucs on the road by 2.5 points (3-1).
• Week 5: The Chiefs are favored to beat the Raiders at home by 4.5 points (4-1).
• Week 6: The Chiefs are underdogs to beat the Bills at home by 1.5 points (4-2).
• Week 7: The Chiefs are favored to beat the 49ers on the road by 1 point (5-2).
• Week 8 — BYE WEEK
• Week 9: The Chiefs are favored to beat the Titans at home by 5 points (6-2).
• Week 10: The Chiefs are favored to beat the Jaguars at home by 10 points (7-2).
• Week 11: The Chiefs are underdogs to beat the Chargers on the road by 1.5 points (7-3).
• Week 12: The Chiefs are favored to beat the Rams at home by 2.5 points (8-3).
• Week 13: The Chiefs are a pick ‘em against the Bengals on the road (8-3-1)*
• Week 14: The Chiefs are a pick ‘em against the Broncos on the road (8-3-2)*
• Week 15: The Chiefs are favored to beat the Texans at home by 10 points (9-3-2).
• Week 16: The Chiefs are favored to beat the Seahawks at home by 10.5 points (10-3-2).
• Week 17: The Chiefs are favored to beat the Broncos at home by 4.5 points (11-3-2).
• Week 18: The Chiefs are favored to beat the Raiders on the road by 2 points (12-3-2).

*For the purpose of this exercise, instead of giving the Chiefs a tie, let’s say they split the “pick ‘em” games rather than tie.

The final Chiefs record, according to Las Vegas: 13-4

Takeaways

• The Chiefs are underdogs in just three games — away against the Buccaneers (Week 4) and Chargers (Week 11) and at home against the Bills (Week 6). I can buy the Bucs and the Chargers, but Las Vegas still feels way too high on the Bills to me. The teams are too close in my mind for the Arrowhead Stadium factor to not push the Chiefs over the top.
• It has become a theme of the offseason, but the division is no longer a cakewalk. Prior to the schedule being released in previous recent seasons, you could assume the Chiefs would be favored in every AFC West game. That is no longer the case, and the largest spread is 4.5 points.
• I find it to be a good sign that the Chiefs are favored to beat the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams (Week 12) at home — and are a pick ‘em against the AFC champion Bengals (Week 13) on the road. Despite how the season ended — and losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill — Kansas City is rightly demanding the respect of the oddsmakers.
• 13-4 is an intriguing record. The league has made it so that only one team per conference gets a bye week. I would think that it is safe to assume 14-3 does it. 13-4 may need the help of some tiebreakers. If the Chiefs don’t get the playoff bye week, they will need to play 13 games in a row before a week off before the Super Bowl (without even a mini-bye that might come with a Thursday Night Football game). In the Patrick Mahomes, Super Bowl-or-bust era of Chiefs football, that’s where Week 6 (Bills) and Week 13 (Bengals) become just as important as the division games.