With the Chiefs going into what seems like a pivotal draft in less than two weeks with lots of question marks on the roster, there has been lots of debate about how to get the most out of the Chiefs 12 Draft Picks.
One of the more popular debates has been the value of drafting a WR in the 1st round against waiting until later rounds in favor of drafting defense with the earlier picks. The Chiefs biggest needs on Defense seem to be CB and EDGE. I've been wanting to study the trend of players from these positions in recent drafts and their success in correlation to their draft position. This first study looks at WRs from the last 5 drafts who were picked in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds.
I used the WR's Rookie year stats and then their Career stats for this. My thinking behind this was to see if there was any trend on how WR's produce in their rookie year based on when they were drafted. But I also wanted to see Career stats so the late bloomers could be represented as well.
You can see the spreadsheet here that I compiled and used to come up with these numbers.
2017-2021 Drafted WR Average
Obviously this is not the end all be all and it doesn't mean you should draft a WR in the 1st or never. But I believe it does show a higher probability of 1st round receivers succeeding. There have been lots of great WRs taken after the first. Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp and DK Metcalf are just a few examples of this. But there are also more guys who don't make it in those later rounds than there are in the first.
I plan to do similar studies with Corners and Pass rushers. Let me know if you have any ideas that you would like to see for the next studies.