clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

John Dixon’s AV-based NFL draft pick value chart

A draft value model that is based entirely on what happens on the field.

The Jimmy Johnson and Rich Hill NFL draft pick value charts are based on historical draft trades. The more recent Fitzgerald-Spielberger model is based on player salaries.

In contrast, this chart is based entirely on what happens on the field. It uses Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) metric to calculate the value every NFL player drafted between 1989 and 2016 contributed to the team that first selected them.

Here is how it compares to the other commonly-used draft pick value charts.

This is not the only AV-based draft value chart that has been developed. PFR founder Doug Drinen did some pioneering work in 2008. Later, the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective and Football Perspective’s Chase Stuart created their own versions of AV-based charts.

This model is an attempt to improve upon those efforts — and update them with data from more recent NFL seasons. Once a year, the chart is updated to include data from the NFL season that ended six years before.

To learn more about the differences between these models — and the specifics of how this one is constructed — please read the Arrowhead Pride articles that introduced the model in the spring of 2022: How to improve NFL draft pick value charts and Finding a better way to value NFL draft picks.

John Dixon Draft Pick Value Chart

Rnd-Pck (Ovr) Val Rnd-Pck (Ovr) Val Rnd-Pck (Ovr) Val Rnd-Pck (Ovr) Val
1-1 (1) 3000 3-1 (65) 873 5-1 (129) 345 7-1 (193) 102
1-2 (2) 2936 3-2 (66) 859 5-2 (130) 340 7-2 (194) 100
1-3 (3) 2874 3-3 (67) 845 5-3 (131) 334 7-3 (195) 98
1-4 (4) 2814 3-4 (68) 832 5-4 (132) 329 7-4 (196) 96
1-5 (5) 2754 3-5 (69) 819 5-5 (133) 324 7-5 (197) 94
1-6 (6) 2696 3-6 (70) 806 5-6 (134) 319 7-6 (198) 92
1-7 (7) 2640 3-7 (71) 794 5-7 (135) 314 7-7 (199) 90
1-8 (8) 2584 3-8 (72) 782 5-8 (136) 309 7-8 (200) 88
1-9 (9) 2530 3-9 (73) 770 5-9 (137) 304 7-9 (201) 87
1-10 (10) 2477 3-10 (74) 758 5-10 (138) 299 7-10 (202) 85
1-11 (11) 2425 3-11 (75) 747 5-11 (139) 294 7-11 (203) 84
1-12 (12) 2375 3-12 (76) 736 5-12 (140) 289 7-12 (204) 82
1-13 (13) 2325 3-13 (77) 725 5-13 (141) 285 7-13 (205) 81
1-14 (14) 2277 3-14 (78) 714 5-14 (142) 280 7-14 (206) 79
1-15 (15) 2230 3-15 (79) 704 5-15 (143) 275 7-15 (207) 78
1-16 (16) 2184 3-16 (80) 693 5-16 (144) 270 7-16 (208) 77
1-17 (17) 2139 3-17 (81) 683 5-17 (145) 266 7-17 (209) 75
1-18 (18) 2095 3-18 (82) 673 5-18 (146) 261 7-18 (210) 74
1-19 (19) 2052 3-19 (83) 664 5-19 (147) 257 7-19 (211) 73
1-20 (20) 2010 3-20 (84) 654 5-20 (148) 252 7-20 (212) 72
1-21 (21) 1969 3-21 (85) 645 5-21 (149) 248 7-21 (213) 71
1-22 (22) 1929 3-22 (86) 636 5-22 (150) 243 7-22 (214) 70
1-23 (23) 1890 3-23 (87) 627 5-23 (151) 239 7-23 (215) 69
1-24 (24) 1852 3-24 (88) 618 5-24 (152) 234 7-24 (216) 68
1-25 (25) 1814 3-25 (89) 609 5-25 (153) 230 7-25 (217) 67
1-26 (26) 1778 3-26 (90) 601 5-26 (154) 226 7-26 (218) 66
1-27 (27) 1742 3-27 (91) 592 5-27 (155) 222 7-27 (219) 65
1-28 (28) 1708 3-28 (92) 584 5-28 (156) 218 7-28 (220) 64
1-29 (29) 1674 3-29 (93) 576 5-29 (157) 214 7-29 (221) 63
1-30 (30) 1641 3-30 (94) 568 5-30 (158) 209 7-30 (222) 62
1-31 (31) 1609 3-31 (95) 560 5-31 (159) 205 7-31 (223) 61
1-32 (32) 1577 3-32 (96) 553 5-32 (160) 202 7-32 (224) 60
2-1 (33) 1547 4-1 (97) 545 6-1 (161) 198 8-1 (225) 59
2-2 (34) 1517 4-2 (98) 537 6-2 (162) 194 8-2 (226) 59
2-3 (35) 1487 4-3 (99) 530 6-3 (163) 190 8-3 (227) 58
2-4 (36) 1459 4-4 (100) 523 6-4 (164) 186 8-4 (228) 57
2-5 (37) 1431 4-5 (101) 516 6-5 (165) 183 8-5 (229) 56
2-6 (38) 1404 4-6 (102) 509 6-6 (166) 179 8-6 (230) 55
2-7 (39) 1377 4-7 (103) 502 6-7 (167) 175 8-7 (231) 54
2-8 (40) 1352 4-8 (104) 495 6-8 (168) 172 8-8 (232) 53
2-9 (41) 1326 4-9 (105) 488 6-9 (169) 168 8-9 (233) 52
2-10 (42) 1302 4-10 (106) 481 6-10 (170) 165 8-10 (234) 51
2-11 (43) 1278 4-11 (107) 475 6-11 (171) 161 8-11 (235) 50
2-12 (44) 1254 4-12 (108) 468 6-12 (172) 158 8-12 (236) 49
2-13 (45) 1231 4-13 (109) 461 6-13 (173) 155 8-13 (237) 48
2-14 (46) 1209 4-14 (110) 455 6-14 (174) 152 8-14 (238) 47
2-15 (47) 1187 4-15 (111) 449 6-15 (175) 148 8-15 (239) 46
2-16 (48) 1166 4-16 (112) 442 6-16 (176) 145 8-16 (240) 44
2-17 (49) 1145 4-17 (113) 436 6-17 (177) 142 8-17 (241) 43
2-18 (50) 1125 4-18 (114) 430 6-18 (178) 139 8-18 (242) 42
2-19 (51) 1105 4-19 (115) 424 6-19 (179) 136 8-19 (243) 40
2-20 (52) 1086 4-20 (116) 418 6-20 (180) 134 8-20 (244) 39
2-21 (53) 1067 4-21 (117) 412 6-21 (181) 131 8-21 (245) 37
2-22 (54) 1048 4-22 (118) 406 6-22 (182) 128 8-22 (246) 35
2-23 (55) 1031 4-23 (119) 400 6-23 (183) 125 8-23 (247) 33
2-24 (56) 1013 4-24 (120) 395 6-24 (184) 123 8-24 (248) 31
2-25 (57) 996 4-25 (121) 389 6-25 (185) 120 8-25 (249) 29
2-26 (58) 979 4-26 (122) 383 6-26 (186) 118 8-26 (250) 27
2-27 (59) 963 4-27 (123) 378 6-27 (187) 115 8-27 (251) 25
2-28 (60) 947 4-28 (124) 372 6-28 (188) 113 8-28 (252) 22
2-29 (61) 931 4-29 (125) 367 6-29 (189) 110 8-29 (253) 19
2-30 (62) 916 4-30 (126) 361 6-30 (190) 108 8-30 (254) 17
2-31 (63) 901 4-31 (127) 356 6-31 (191) 106 8-31 (255) 14
2-32 (64) 887 4-32 (128) 350 6-32 (192) 104 8-32 (256) 10

Please note: NFL drafts consist of seven rounds of 32 picks — plus an additional round’s worth of compensatory picks that are distributed at the ends of the third through seventh rounds in order to compensate individual teams for free-agency losses during the previous season. Precisely how these comp picks are distributed varies from year to year. Therefore, the chart includes 256 picks in eight virtual rounds.