Chiefs take safety in Todd McShay’s mock draft 3.0

ESPN analyst Todd McShay released his Mock Draft 3.0 on Wednesday, now taking NFL Combine results — and Tuesday’s blockbuster trade for Russell Wilson — into full account. McShay believes that the Seattle Seahawks will use free agency to find a “short-term complement” for newly-acquired quarterback Drew Lock. So with the Denver Broncos’ ninth overall pick, he projects the Seahawks will select Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux. In McShay’s estimation, the Wilson trade also figures into the Kansas City Chiefs’ pick at 30th overall.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: S Daxton Hill, Michigan

Kansas City allowed 5.9 yards per play in 2021 (30th) and 7.3 yards per pass attempt (24th), and safety Tyrann Mathieu is a free agent. Pass rush, wide receiver and offensive line are all units that could use another contributor, but this one just made too much sense. Hill is a fast riser after a great combine showing (4.38-second 40-yard dash), and he’s a rangy defensive back with versatility. He has the free safety traits to match slot receivers in man coverage and the physicality to support the run like a strong safety. Hill would help contain the vertical passing games of division-mates Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.

In his first two mocks, McShay had the Chiefs pick Penn State wideout Jahan Dotson at 30. So this is yet another example of the long shadow that Kansas City’s free-agent safety is casting over the team’s offseason. With the Chiefs playing against division rivals that will now have three of 2021’s top 15 quarterbacks — not to mention a 2022 schedule in which the team will face four more of them — it’s easy to see McShay’s logic. But he’s presuming that, unlike Seattle, Kansas City will not address Mathieu’s potential absence in free agency.

What if the Chiefs — as our Bryan Stewart suggested on Monday — make a move for a player like the Seahawks’ Quandre Diggs? Or suppose that after Mathieu tests free agency, he and the Chiefs are able to agree on a contract extension that both sides say they want? That will certainly change the calculus about what Kansas City might do in the first round.