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Chiefs take safety in Todd McShay’s mock draft 3.0

After going with a wideout to Kansas City in his first two mock drafts, the ESPN analyst now shifts gears.

Washington v Michigan Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

ESPN analyst Todd McShay released his Mock Draft 3.0 on Wednesday, now taking NFL Combine results — and Tuesday’s blockbuster trade for Russell Wilson — into full account. McShay believes that the Seattle Seahawks will use free agency to find a “short-term complement” for newly-acquired quarterback Drew Lock. So with the Denver Broncos’ ninth overall pick, he projects the Seahawks will select Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux. In McShay’s estimation, the Wilson trade also figures into the Kansas City Chiefs’ pick at 30th overall.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: S Daxton Hill, Michigan

Kansas City allowed 5.9 yards per play in 2021 (30th) and 7.3 yards per pass attempt (24th), and safety Tyrann Mathieu is a free agent. Pass rush, wide receiver and offensive line are all units that could use another contributor, but this one just made too much sense. Hill is a fast riser after a great combine showing (4.38-second 40-yard dash), and he’s a rangy defensive back with versatility. He has the free safety traits to match slot receivers in man coverage and the physicality to support the run like a strong safety. Hill would help contain the vertical passing games of division-mates Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.

In his first two mocks, McShay had the Chiefs pick Penn State wideout Jahan Dotson at 30. So this is yet another example of the long shadow that Kansas City’s free-agent safety is casting over the team’s offseason. With the Chiefs playing against division rivals that will now have three of 2021’s top 15 quarterbacks — not to mention a 2022 schedule in which the team will face four more of them — it’s easy to see McShay’s logic. But he’s presuming that, unlike Seattle, Kansas City will not address Mathieu’s potential absence in free agency.

What if the Chiefs — as our Bryan Stewart suggested on Monday — make a move for a player like the Seahawks’ Quandre Diggs? Or suppose that after Mathieu tests free agency, he and the Chiefs are able to agree on a contract extension that both sides say they want? That will certainly change the calculus about what Kansas City might do in the first round.

National Mock Draft Picks

Pos Name School Pct
S Daxton Hill Michigan 28%
EDGE George Karlaftis Purdue 14%
CB Kaiir Elam Florida 10%
S Jalen Pitre Baylor 7%
OLB Boye Mafe Minnesota 7%
WR Jahan Dotson Penn State 7%
CB Kyler Gordon Washington 3%
CB Roger McCreary Auburn 3%
DE Cameron Thomas San Diego State 3%
EDGE Jermaine Johnson II Florida State 3%
DE DeMarvin Leal Texas A&M 3%
WR Jameson Williams Alabama 3%
WR Chris Olave Ohio State 3%
OL Bernhard Raimann Central Michigan 3%

National Mock Draft Positions

Position Pct
Defensive back 52%
Edge rusher 31%
Wide receiver 14%
Offensive line 3%
Tight end 0%
Running back 0%
Defensive tackle 0%
Linebacker 0%


Will the Chiefs need to address safety with their first-round pick?

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