Chiefs-Seahawks Week 16 predictions from Arrowhead Pride

For Week 15’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans, every member of the Arrowhead Pride staff picked the Chiefs to win. Almost 90% thought Kansas City would win in a blowout, which made our composite prediction call for an overwhelming 35-14 win that was 30 points removed from the 30-24 overtime win the Chiefs managed in Houston. It wasn’t our worst miss of the season — but it was close. Our readers were just as confident in a victory, but one in three called for an easy win, while one in 10 correctly predicted a close game.

In Week 16, the Chiefs host the Seattle Seahawks on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 10 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

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Price Carter (@priceacarter)

It’s easy to look at the Seahawks’ last five games and overlook what they have done. Despite losing four of their last five, Seattle is a dangerous team. They come in seventh in points scored and fifth in yards per play. This is a dangerous offense coming into Arrowhead. Especially when you consider the Chiefs' defense is all that stands in their way. I expect the Chiefs to have success on offense especially running the ball; Seattle is the 31st-ranked run defense in the league. However, the Chiefs will need to be careful throwing the ball, as the Seahawks are near the top of the league in interceptions. It’s hard to pick the Chiefs to win big right now, given the propensity to turn the ball over, the defense and the special teams. The Chiefs win, but it won’t be easy (it never is).

Chiefs 31, Seahawks 28

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Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

In normal temperatures, I would predict a scorefest between two teams that heavily rely on their offenses. But with conditions expected well below freezing at kickoff time, I assume we see a heavy dose of both running back stables. Unfortunately, the reliance on the run game will hurt Patrick Mahomes’ quest to secure the single-season passing record. However, he won’t mind, as the Chiefs will add another win to their win total. Chiefs 27 Seahawks 20

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Nate Christensen (@natech32)

Seattle has surpassed anyone’s expectations for the team coming into the season. Their offense has been dynamic with Geno Smith, and they’ve complimented it with a variety of good weapons and smart offensive coaching. The problem? The defense isn’t good. They lack any difference makers up front, and with safety Jamal Adams on injured reserve, they have no real playmakers on the backend. To make matters worse, they’re 1-4 in their last five games and just lost Tyler Lockett to a season-ending hand injury. While they have to win this game to stay in the playoffs, it feels like they’re running out of gas.

Chiefs 34, Seahawks 27

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John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

Earlier in the week, I thought this would be an easy win for Kansas City, But as time has passed, I’ve begun thinking this will be a close, high-scoring game. Geno Smith will use his first opportunity to play the Chiefs to argue that he should have been their first overall pick in 2013. There’s little he could do to convince me — I thought then (and still believe) that Kansas City made the right move — but I appreciate how he feels. Hats off to you, Geno, for a great season!

Chiefs 37, Seahawks 30

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Maurice Elston (@recenickelz)

The Chiefs need a complete game, and I think this is the week we see it. I know that's asking a lot from a team that had its share of struggles against two of the worst teams in the NFL, the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans. I look for Patrick Mahomes and the offense to continue moving the ball easily and efficiently while eliminating the turnovers. That will help the defense be able to play with a solid lead and focus on stopping just one phase of the Seahawks game. Finally, the special teams will erase all the doubt about them this week too. Chiefs roll this week.

Chief 42, Seahawks 17

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Talon Graff (@CoachGraff34)

An old AFC West rivalry gets renewed on Christmas Eve as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are one of the more surprisingly successful teams in the league but are just 1-4 since their week 11 bye. Each team can ill-afford a loss at this juncture of the season, with the Chiefs needing to keep pace in the race for the AFC’s first seed while Seattle is pushing for a playoff spot on the NFC side. Quarterback Geno Smith will already be without receiver Tyler Lockett but could also be without tight end Noah Fant and running back Kenneth Walker. The Chiefs appear to be a solid lock to take this one, but we’ve seen how that goes in the past. Still, the Chiefs take the win at home behind some Mahomes magic.

Chiefs 31, Seahawks 27

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Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)

After barely escaping in Houston last week, I fully expect the Chiefs to come into this game much more focused. The Seahawks are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Chiefs are still looking to regain the number one seed in the AFC. However, the Chiefs still need the Bills to drop one more game for that to become a reality —- but you want to put yourself in position. This will be a great challenge for the defense going against Geno Smith —- but it’ll be tough for them to generate offense without Tyler Lockett. Chiefs 31, Seahawks 23

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Zach Gunter (@ZachGunter08)

In my mind, this game entirely comes down to one player — rookie running back Kenneth Walker III. The Chiefs will have to be on their A-game if he plays. If he doesn’t, this really shouldn’t be much of a game at all. But the Chiefs haven’t given too much of a reason to believe in them over the last few weeks. So, I’m leaning on the side of caution.

Also, everyone on here is picking high. But, the negative wind chills will be a major factor. I expect a low-scoring game.

Chiefs 17, Seahawks 14

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Conner Helm (@ArrowheadConner)

The Seahawks have really fallen off, losing four of their last five. To make matters worse, the Seahawks are expected to be without three top playmakers in Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker and Noah Fant. Geno Smith has been great all year, but the Seahawks are going to be asking him and DK Metcalf to do a lot to hang around with this Chiefs offense. With the Chiefs, we are once again waiting to see the Chiefs play a complete football game. It would be a small Christmas Eve miracle if the Chiefs happened to do well in all three phases of the game. I think the Chiefs make this game relatively painless for the fans in attendance but still leave much to be desired from the overall play of the team. Patrick Mahomes takes a stranglehold on the MVP race, completing 85% of his passes for 350 yards and three touchdowns.

Chiefs 27, Seahawks 20

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Caleb James (@CJScoobs)

Both teams enter this game in must-win situations. While the Chiefs locked up the AFC West with a win in Houston last week, they are still in the hunt for the one seed in the AFC and must win to keep pace. After starting hot, the Seahawks have gone cold as of late, losing three of their last four and plummeting down the playoff picture in the NFC. Seattle isn’t the only thing to go cold. Weather conditions in Kansas City will be frigid, with a high of 10 degrees projected for kickoff. This is a game in that we could see the elements play a significant factor in both the kicking game, as well as the passing game. Patrick Mahomes has proven he can play in any condition, but this will be by far the coldest game he has ever played. Seattle will likely try to run the ball, and control as much clock as possible, keeping the Chiefs offense on the sideline. Seattle has a young budding secondary, but the Chiefs should be able to take advantage of short to intermediate routes, as well as running the football. I expect this game to be a little lower-scoring than some would think, but Mahomes should further his MVP campaign and notch the deep freeze off of his list of weather-related accomplishments.

Chiefs 24, Seahawks 14

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Ashley Justice (@Justice_Paur88)

The Chiefs will have a tougher time (at least on paper) this week against the Seahawks on Christmas Eve. Geno Smith has done an impressive job of filling the Russell Wilson-sized hole and has even found himself voted into this year’s Pro Bowl. The defense will have a lot to prepare for with the stacked Seahawks lineup. I’m curious how they handle the rookie running back Kenneth Walker III. The inclement weather will be a factor, no matter how much the teams try to downplay it. I expect Pacheco to have a day, as well as McKinnon. The same will also be true for Walker. I still expect a few deep attempts from Mahomes, but weather will impact the long ball. The Chiefs need this victory to keep pace with the Bills and the rest of the AFC, but the Seahawks need this victory just to stay in the playoff hunt. In the end, I think the Chiefs pull this one out simply because they are supposed to.

Chiefs 31, Seahawks 27

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Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

It’s going to be a frigid, windy day in Arrowhead Stadium, and I do think that affects this game — and that should benefit the Chiefs. The run game is hitting a stride that I hoped to see before the season started, and this is the perfect opportunity to ride it all the way to a win. Seattle’s defense has been vulnerable to opposing rush attacks, and it’s not easier to take on a runner in the gap when it’s this cold — especially for the team traveling from the west coast.

Chiefs 23, Seahawks 17

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Aaron Ladd (aaronladd0)

Another close call for the Chiefs last week in Houston, but the reverberations after give me pause. Special teams continue to be inconsistent, piling on two critical misses in the overtime win over the Texans. Subsequent spice on social media between holders of old and holders of new make me think where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Seattle presents no easy challenge as the final quarter of regular season play proves more important now than ever before. Yes, Kansas City needs to win out for any shot at the AFC’s top seed. But Kansas City also searches for its swagger again after a pair of sloppy wins over lowly opponents. This feels like a get-right game.

Chiefs 32, Seahawks 21

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Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

It sounds like the Chiefs are going to sell out to try and take away DK Metcalf, whether it works or not is left to be seen. If they can limit Metcalf’s impact on the game, then the Chiefs may have an easier time than you would expect in this game. Despite Geno Smith playing at a Pro Bowl level this season, the Seahawks are pretty banged up on offense. Tight end Noah Fant, wide receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Kenneth Walker III all three have failed to practice once this week— at this point, it looks like only Walker has a chance to suit up in this game. That being said, the Chiefs are facing issues on the defensive line as a mystery illness continues to work through the Kansas City locker room, with its latest victims being Mike Danna, Khalen Saunders, and Chris Jones. This could spell trouble if Walker is a go and the Chiefs' defensive line is not 100%. In the end, I think the Chiefs keep their campaign for the number one seed in the AFC west on track and squeak out another close one on the tundra of Arrowhead Stadium.

Chiefs 28, Seahawks 24

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Ricko Mendoza (@ricko_mendoza_)

The Chiefs get a matchup against a Seahawks defense which, last week, allowed San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (93 yards and two touchdowns) and running back Christian McCaffrey (138 total yards and one touchdown) to have big games in an offense led by quarterback Brock Purdy (17-of-26 for 217 yards and two touchdowns). Now replace the names Kittle with Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce, McCaffrey with the Chiefs' dynamic running back duo of Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco, and Purdy with MVP front runner Patrick Mahomes. One would have to imagine that the Chiefs’ offense should see vastly better results, or at the very least, similar to the success of the 49ers. If the Chiefs’ defense can play better than they’ve shown in recent weeks, Kansas City will enjoy their holiday weekend riding a nice three-game win streak.

Chiefs 24, Seahawks 13

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Stan Nelson (@chiefsfanstan)

We have seen enough of the Chiefs this year to know that no matter who their opponent is or what kind of point spread we are looking at, they seem to play down or up to the level of the teams that they play on any given week. We keep predicting that elusive blowout against an inferior opponent, only to spend a week in and week out biting our nails at the end, hoping the Chiefs will even win. The Seatle Seahawks are a five hundred team with not many household name players, and that is just the kind of team that can rise up and play good football at any time. For these reasons, I am done predicting blowouts against any team remaining on the schedule. I will still give the nod to the Chiefs, but that’s all.

Chiefs 28, Seahawks 27

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Tom Ruprecht (@truprecht)

The cold weather and Seattle’s poor run defense should make for an Isiah Pacheco-heavy game plan. For the third consecutive week, I think the Chiefs will struggle against an opponent they should put away quickly. But I think Pacheco and McKinnon’s runs, combined with Mahomes’ magic on third down, will allow them to win a tight game.

Chiefs 24, Seahawks 17

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Kramer Sansone (@KramerTalks)

With how the Seahawks have played the last few weeks, you would expect the Chiefs to have the upper hand — but I truly don’t think the defensive scheme will change much from prior weeks for the Chiefs. If the Seahawks run play action the majority of this game, they should have the edge — but the Chiefs' defensive line needs to show up to apply pressure on Geno Smith. I believe the cold weather is going to affect this game.

Seahawks 24, Chiefs 20

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Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

After a month of frustrating play — and a week of drama involving superfans and former players — Chiefs Kingdom really needs this to be “The Mahomes and Kelce Holiday Special.” We need a feel-good story where our spirits are raised over three hours, and we come to learn the true meaning of seven consecutive AFC West titles. Unfortunately, extreme cold is unlikely to be conducive to a get-right game. Both teams will struggle to move the ball consistently in frigid conditions. I do think the Chiefs are the more talented team, and I think they will outlast the Seahawks in an ugly game that they never pull away in yet never feel in too much danger of losing.

Chiefs 24, Seahawks 16

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Stephen Serda (@StephenSerda)

Seattle desperately needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive–and Geno Smith has genuinely been one of the NFL’s best stories this season. With all of that in mind, I just don’t think Seattle has enough talent to come into Arrowhead and take down the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes is playing at this level. With no Tyler Lockett and Kenneth Walker truly up in the air for Saturday, I don’t think Seattle will be able to score enough to keep pace with this offense. The Seahawks' defense has also been one of the league's worst against tight ends–meaning Travis Kelce should be in for a big day as he looks to end his 3-game scoreless streak.

Chiefs 34, Seahawks 21

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Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

The Seattle Seahawks are a difficult team to evaluate. They have some weapons on offense, including DK Metcalf and Kenneth Walker, and on defense, Uchenna Nwosu and Tariq Woolen. They have a quarterback in Geno Smith that has finally found his way in the NFL, and they are now 7-7 on the season. But they’ve lost four out of the last five games, including losses to the Raiders, Bucs, and Panthers. But I’ll say it again — for this Chiefs team — the matchup doesn’t matter as much. It’s all about whether they execute or not. If the Chiefs don’t turn the ball over on offense and tackle on defense, they win this one running away. This should be a big day for Travis Kelce and might feature the return of Mecole Hardman, making the offense look instantly more dynamic. Watch the interior of the defensive line this week, with Khalen Saunders and Mike Danna not practicing due to illness, this could be a big day for Brandon Williams. Williams could be critical, as he sets the table for the rest of the defense to make plays.

Chiefs 35, Seahawks 17

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Bryan Stewart (@BryanStewart_)

Pete Carroll almost has his team ready to roll, playing very hard. This week is a little more challenging, though. His players will be hours away from home on Christmas Eve, set to land in Kansas City, where the weather is not going to be simulated by anything they may feel in Seattle. Sure, cold weather impacts both teams, but we’ve seen Mahomes-led offenses thrive in dry, bitter environments for years now. This will be a nice warmup for what’s to come later in January.

Chiefs 27, Seahawks 17

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Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

The Chiefs should be ready for the Seahawks’ best shot, as Seattle needs to win to keep its playoff hopes alive. I am eager to see how the young Chiefs' secondary fares against as talented a receiver as DK Metcalf, but not having Tyler Lockett available hurts. Without him, I’m not sure the Seahawks' offense will be able to keep pace with the Chiefs' offense led by Patrick Mahomes, who has a knack for playing well in cold weather. The Chiefs finally play turnover-free football and roll.

Chiefs 30, Seahawks 10

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Dakota Watson (@dwatson_56)

I expect a much cleaner and more efficient performance from the Chiefs this week than their narrow and uninspiring victory over the Houston Texans. I do think that the weather will have an impact on this game, making the game lower scoring than it looks like it should be on paper. The Chiefs will rely on the running game more than in recent weeks to shorten the game. The Seahawks’ rush defense has been poor throughout the season, and I expect the Chiefs to take advantage. Unfortunately, based on the team’s recent performance, I just can’t pick the Chiefs in a blowout.

Chiefs 23, Seahawks 16

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

Not every AP contributor predicted a blowout win over the Texans, but none expected a close game. Dakota Watson’s 31-20 pick led the staff with 10 points of error, followed by Rocky Magaña’s 34-21 prediction that missed by 14.