Chiefs vs. Broncos: Game and score predictions

Just two of Arrowhead Pride’s contributors picked the right horse in the Week 13 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. But no matter which team won, most of our contributors (and our readers) thought it would be a close game. So our aggregate prediction for a 34-27 Kansas City victory was just 20 points removed from the final score of the Chiefs’ 27-24 loss. Back in Week 3, our prediction for the Indianapolis Colts loss carried 38 points of error.

In Week 14, the Chiefs are visiting the Denver Broncos. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by nine points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

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Price Carter (@priceacarter)

The most important thing about this game is the how — not the what. We know what the result will be: a Kansas City win. But the how is going to impact how Chiefs Kingdom views this game. Sure, the Chiefs can likely sleepwalk through most of this game and come away with a win by a touchdown or more. It feels, however, like this team needs to make a statement after the disappointing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. There is no reason to let the Broncos hang around in this game — particularly on offense. The Kansas City defense needs to come out and dominate the league’s worst offense. With a strong defensive performance, the Chiefs won’t need much from the offense. The Broncos have allowed just four receivers this year to have over 100 yards against them. Look for Kansas City to diversify the passing game beyond tight end Travis Kelce.

Chiefs 27, Broncos 10

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Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

The pessimism in me can see a Russell Wilson coming out party this weekend — but I’m only joking. The Chiefs win comfortably in a game that many will forget in no time at all — a bit like last year’s game in Denver.

Chiefs 24, Broncos 13

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Nate Christensen (@natech32)

This game is going to be bogged down and rough to watch. The Chiefs are coming off an emotional loss to the Bengals — and against a lesser opponent, might have trouble raising their energy level to the same intensity. Denver has an elite defense, but the offense is catatonic. I expect a low-scoring affair where the Broncos start hot — but Kansas City will then dominate the last 35-40 minutes to pull out a win that shouldn’t be as close as it is. But we know the Chiefs won’t put everything into this game, right?

Chiefs 23, Broncos 14

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John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

In 2022, NFL teams are averaging 21.9 points per game. The Broncos have allowed just three of their 12 opponents to 22 points or more — and just one has scored more than 23. So this probably isn’t a game where we should expect the Chiefs’ offense to put up a whole lot of points. But since the Broncos have turned in an above-average score in just one of the dozen games in which they’ve played, I fully expect Kansas City to come home with a win.

Chiefs 24, Broncos 13

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Maurice Elston (@recenickelz)

After last week’s tough loss to the Bengals, the Chiefs are probably ready to get back to it. Despite the Broncos’ 3-9 record — and a very unimpressive offense thus far — this is still a divisional game. It could be closer than most think — but I think that closeness only lasts for the first half. I think the Chiefs come out flat in the first couple of drives. Then Denver jumps out 10-0 before Kansas City rattles off two touchdowns and go into halftime up 14-10. After that, the game will never be close. The Chiefs score another two touchdowns before the Broncos get a late score that makes it look better.

Chiefs 27, Broncos 17

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Talon Graff (@CoachGraff34)

In the second of three straight road games, the Chiefs meet a Broncos team that is dealing with a spiraling season. The Russell Wilson trade has been the polar opposite of what 99% of football watchers expected. Currently on a four-game losing streak — their second of the season — Denver is 3-9. If quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the offense can be effective against a good defensive team, Kansas City could hand the Broncos their fifth consecutive loss. Travis Kelce will be taking zero prisoners. Following the loss in Cincinnati, he should be in rare form.

Chiefs 31, Broncos 14

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Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)

Coming off another heartbreaking loss to the Bengals, I expect to see a very locked-in team playing a division rival. With five games remaining, the Chiefs have one of the easiest schedules — which may pay huge dividends. While the Buffalo Bills are back in control of the No. 1 seed, they still have to play the Bengals, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. If the Chiefs win out — and Buffalo loses one more game — the AFC’s road to the Super Bowl will once again have to cross GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. We know how great the Denver defense is — but the Broncos’ offense is just embarrassing. Kansas City should roll.

Chiefs 27, Broncos 13

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Zach Gunter (@ZachGunter08)

The Chiefs will be playing mad. After Kelce's rare fumble last Sunday, he's fired up and ready for a fight. The Broncos' defense is great, but their offense is very, very bad. So this will be a low-scoring game. Expect a bad game from one side and a great game from the other.

Chiefs 21, Broncos 7

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Conner Helm (@ArrowheadConner)

In what’s likely to be a low-scoring game, I expect the Chiefs to play a very vanilla game. Running back Isiah Pacheco should see plenty of work against a Broncos team that is only average against the run. Meanwhile, the Kansas City passing attack will have to face the league’s second-best passing defense by DVOA. In the end, I can’t see a way the depleted Denver team can score enough points to keep up with the Chiefs.

Chiefs 27, Broncos 13

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Caleb James (@CJScoobs)

The Chiefs need a bounce-back game to wash the sour taste of last week’s loss from their mouths. What better medicine than playing a team that hasn’t defeated them since 2015? It will be only the second-ever matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson — and it should give Mahomes a great chance to avenge 2018’s loss in Seattle. Stopping the Broncos' running game will be critical — and I would expect Denver to take deep shots early and often. A stout Denver defense that has stuffed Kansas City in the past could give the Chiefs issues — but early on, the away team has the talent to put this game out of reach. Ball security will be a huge factor in this game.

Chiefs 35, Broncos 14

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Ashley Justice (@Justice_Paur88)

When the NFL not-so-quietly rescinds your primetime invitation to play Patrick Mahomes at home, you know for a fact that you are not cooking. Would I be shocked if Kansas City found a way to keep Denver’s hopes alive for most of the game? No... I wouldn’t. And if the Chiefs lose this game, everyone will need to take a long look in the mirror. The Broncos’ defense is not bad at all, so I do not anticipate a trampling — and anyway, that’s not even head coach Andy Reid’s style. But if Kansas City wants to earn back a bit of the credit it lost against the Bengals, the team can’t make this look like Denver ever had much of a chance. A loss to these Broncos would not be the same as the Week 3 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

Chiefs 31, Broncos 10

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Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

Something tells me this game is not going to go as smoothly as a lot of Chiefs Kingdom might like — or expect. Denver’s historically bad offense is even more shorthanded than usual — and their defense isn’t as dominant as it was earlier this season. There’s no reason this Kansas City team should let Denver hang around — but that’s why I think it will. I expect a physical, tough performance from the Broncos’ defense — one that forces the Chiefs to squeeze out a win rather than coast to one.

Chiefs 20, Broncos 13

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Aaron Ladd (aaronladd0)

No, you’re not the only one who is struggling to find this matchup interesting. Round 1 of Broncos-Chiefs has very little juice — so little, in fact, that the NFL took an unusual step: it flexed Patrick Mahomes out of primetime. As his career continues, I’m sure that will be a rarity. I don’t see a way Kansas City loses this one, but I certainly see it playing down to Denver’s level. This brings back memories of the 26-10 win against the Los Angeles Rams two weeks ago: a motivated Kansas City team will likely do just enough to cover.

Chiefs 24, Broncos 14

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Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

This isn’t your daddy’s drove of donkeys. Gone are the days of John Elway and Peyton Manning. Now those have been replaced by the days of Russell Wilson — who at this point is basically a Kardashian in cleats. The Broncos have the seventh-ranked defense by DVOA, but their offense is offensive: it has scored 20 points or more only twice this year — and that was against the Las Vegas Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars. Even then, the Broncos lost the game against Captain Mascara — a/k/a Derek Carr. Denver hasn’t beaten Kansas City since what seems like the Reagan administration. The Chiefs should put up 50 points on this carcass of a team, but we should expect something closer to the Rams game. Kansas City wins this one easily. Let’s ride!

Chiefs 28, Broncos 10

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Ricko Mendoza (@ricko_mendoza_)

The Chiefs are once again heavy favorites against a Broncos team that holds last place in the AFC West. Despite the addition of Russell Wilson, Denver’s offense has looked awful this season — scoring a league-worst 14 touchdowns over 12 games. This will be a great opportunity for the Kansas City defense to get back on track. Wilson loves to throw deep, which should give both the pass rush and the secondary plenty of opportunities to make plays — because Wilson holds the ball longer, creating more chances for sacks and 50/50 balls. If the Kansas City defense takes advantage, then the team’s 13-game winning streak will live to see another game... which is just three weeks away.

Chiefs 24, Broncos 13

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Stan Nelson (chiefsfanstan)

Despite the Broncos’ monumental downfall to become one of the league’s bottom-feeders, I still see this as a divisional game against a very good defense. So Denver might be able to hang around for at least part of the game by coming up with some good defensive stops — or maybe a big play or two on special teams. But the cream always rises to the top. By the game’s end, the Chiefs will have asserted themselves as a far better team, extending their winning streak to 14 games. What could start as an interesting matchup will end up being a snoozer.

Chiefs 31, Broncos 10

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Tom Ruprecht (@truprecht)

I am really curious to see how the Chiefs stack up against Denver’s defense. I suspect they won’t quite dominate the way they did when they went up against the San Francisco 49ers. Despite Russell Wilson’s inevitable floundering, I think the Broncos’ defense will keep the game respectable.

Chiefs 21, Broncos 11

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Kramer Sansone (@KramerTalks)

The Chiefs fell to the Colts in a trap game earlier this season — but I don’t think they are going to fall to the Broncos in this one. Denver does not score many touchdowns — and with Courtland Sutton out, it will be hard for Wilson to drive down the field. But I don’t see Kansas City putting up many points against the talented Denver defense, either. This will be a quick game.

Chiefs 20, Broncos 10

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Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

The Broncos are a terrible team — but while beating them, no team has looked particularly good. This just feels like a week where Kansas City’s superior talent will allow them to outlast an opponent without doing anything spectacular. Unless a vastly different Denver offense takes the field, this is a game where only the Chiefs can beat themselves. I expect a boring game with long, time-draining drives. A garbage-time score by Russell Wilson’s crew will make the Broncos look like they were more competitive than they truly were.

Chiefs 24, Broncos 13

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Nick Schwerdt (@nick_schwerdt)

The vibe I’m getting from the Chiefs make it seem like playing the Broncos on their home turf feels like a Sunday chore. It’s as if a friend asks if you have any weekend plans — and you say, “I need to run by Target and then go pick up some dry cleaning. Then I’ve got to fly to Denver real quick for this football game — but it shouldn’t take long.” Denver has a stingy defense that should keep this one from getting too out of hand, but they simply won’t be able to score enough to stay in the game. This might be similar to the Rams game: Kansas City stays in control, but never pulls away to the point where you feel totally comfortable.

Chiefs 20, Broncos 10

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Stephen Serda (@StephenSerda)

I don’t think this is the game where we come away feeling overly confident in the Chiefs. They are clearly the better team — one that is going against one of the worst offenses we’ve ever seen on an NFL field. This game feels like it just won’t be much fun. Ultimately, Kansas City is light-years better than Denver. The Chiefs will come out ahead in what I expect to be a very ugly contest.

Chiefs 27, Broncos 13

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Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

It seems like there is a little bit of a pattern with Chiefs teams. It’s like they have long winning streaks capped by frustratingly close losses. They play their best against the best defenses — and even when it’s close, they own the division. I expect each of these trends to continue against Denver. The Kansas City offense will bring its A-game against a top defense. The Chiefs’ defense will look “fixed” against a bad Broncos’ offense. This game may be close, but there won’t be any doubt about which team is in control. Watch for a big game from Isiah Pacheco — and for L’Jarius Sneed to force a turnover or two.

Chiefs 35, Broncos 24

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Bryan Stewart (@BryanStewart_)

When the Chiefs play the Broncos in three weeks, I expect Denver to roll over. But it’s not going to happen in this first matchup. At home, I expect the Broncos’ defense to continue playing hard, making a respectable effort. Kansas City’s offensive tackles will have their hands full protecting Patrick Mahomes. This is also a huge test for the Chiefs’ defense. It should shut Denver down — and by that, I mean surrender no more than their season average of around 14 points. If the Broncos score beyond the mid-20s, it’s officially time to sound the alarm bells.

Chiefs 27, Broncos 14

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Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

We can’t lose sight of how important this game is for the Broncos. They’re at 3-9 — the reverse of the Chiefs ‘ record — with their season all but over. Even though it’s his first year coaching the team, Nathaniel Hackett’s job is in jeopardy after the acquisition of quarterback Russell Wilson has failed. But the Broncos can salvage one bright spot for their season: making sure the Chiefs’ winning streak does not extend to 14 games. Denver has an elite defense, but its offense isn’t good enough to muck up the game to the point where the team wins one of the biggest upsets in quite some time. Mahomes does what he did against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 49ers — scoring on a good defense — as Kansas City holds Denver to under 14.

Chiefs 27, Broncos 10

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Dakota Watson (@dwatson_56)

I don’t see any potential for a Kansas City loss — but unfortunately, I don’t think it will be a cakewalk. The Broncos’ defense has been the only good thing in a miserable season — and it matches up well against Kansas City. I expect a game similar to the Chiefs-Rams win two weeks ago. I think that the Denver defense will probably frustrate the Chiefs’ offense for a majority of the first half — until the Chiefs pull off their usual routine: sleepwalk to a victory against an inferior opponent. The game’s outcome will never be in doubt, but Kansas City fans will still be frustrated with the team’s performance.

Chiefs 28, Broncos 16

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

For last Sunday’s Bengals game, Kramer Sansone’s pick for a 24-21 Cincinnati victory was the closest prediction, carrying only 6 points of error. It was the fourth week this season that he’s turned in the best Chiefs pick. Aaron Ladd also thought the Bengals would win. His 32-27 pick was off by just 10 points. Kramer and Aaron’s predictions moved each of them into the next tier of the standings.