Chiefs by the Numbers: Passing game continues to gel — and Kadarius Toney

In this series, we review the Kansas City Chiefs’ performance primarily using Next Gen Stats (NGS) — along with other advanced metrics that turn up during the season. For any questions on the statistics used in this series, please refer to our Football Analytics Glossary and Metrics page.

Receiving through the bye week

Here are Kansas City’s updated Next Gen receiving stats.

The last time we looked at this data, it was noticeable that JuJu Smith-Schuster was doing great work after the catch. With two more games of data, Smith-Schuster has increased his Expected Yards After Catch (xYC) by 1.1 yards per reception. Smith-Schuster compares with the San Francisco 49ers’ Deebo Samuel as the NFL’s best receiver in yards after catch.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling continues to grow in his role as the Chiefs’ X receiver. It seems like he and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are finally finding their connection on downfield passes. Valdes-Scantling’s Targeted Air Yards (TAY) increased from 10.7 to 12.2 yards per target. This correlates directly to his Week 7 performance, in which Mahomes connected with Valdes-Scantling on passes that went 52.5 air yards (a 57-yard gain) and 48.4 air yards (a 40-yard gain). In Air Yards, those were Mahomes’ two longest passes this season. Kansas City should continue to use Valdes-Scantling as a downfield receiver, because his Expected Yards After Catch Above Expectation (+/-) is among the league’s bottom five.

The Chiefs also seem to have figured out how to unlock Mecole Hardman’s potential in their offense. Hardman’s Cushion (Csh) is seven yards per route run — the team’s best figure. To utilize this cushion against the 49ers in Week 7, Kansas City used Hardman in motion throughout the game, giving him having 5.05 yards of separation from the nearest defender on his six touches. This resulted in three touchdowns — all of them on ‘Jet Sweep’ looks.

Despite the hype from advanced stats and analytics, Skyy Moore has yet to master the complexity of the offense. At his point of the season, he is not likely to be the Chiefs’ best option.

The Chiefs’ addition of Kadarius Toney

In case you turned off the Internet during the bye week, the Chiefs traded two 2023 draft selections — a third-round compensatory pick and a sixth-round pick — for former New York Giants wide receiver Kadarius Toney. A former first-round choice in the second season of his NFL career, Toney is an unbelievable talent who can best be described as an offensive weapon. For more about this unique player, read Nate Christensen’s Arrowhead Pride film review.

Looking at Toney’s NGS data, it’s pretty clear the type of role we can expect him to fill.

Toney’s 2021 NGS metrics look almost identical to Mecole Hardman’s 2022 stats. In 2021 Toney had Targeted Air Yards (TAY) of only 6.7 yards per target. This is likely due to a combination of his skill set — and the Giants’ ineptness on offense. According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, Toney had an NGS open score of 67 and a YAC score of 64. When using Walder’s receiving scores according to ESPN analytics, Toney was a top-20 receiver at getting open — and a top-6 receiver in yards after catch.

I don’t expect Toney to have a big role in the offense in 2022 — but I do expect Andy Reid (and his staff) to find creative ways to get him the ball in space, allowing them to utilize his ability to get yards after the catch. This move will obviously help Kansas City’s offense this year, but I expect that it was made to secure a player who can play Hardman’s role for years to come.