Chiefs vs. Jaguars: Game and score predictions

In Week 9, all of Arrowhead Pride’s contributors picked the Kansas City Chiefs to defeat the Tennessee Titans on GEHA Field on Arrowhead Stadium. The only disagreement was by how much. There, we were all over the place. Our predictions ranged from 24-17 to 41-10, with the largest number of staffers calling for a blowout. As a group, our predictions called for a 32-20 Kansas City victory — which was quite a bit removed from the 20-17 overtime final. Our readers were a bit less confident in a big win. 45% thought the team would win easily, while 29% called for a blowout win.

In Week 10, the Chiefs face the Jacksonville Jaguars on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by nine points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

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Price Carter (@priceacarter)

The Jaguars can do several of the same things that Tennessee did to give the Chiefs trouble. While their sack numbers are not elite, they have depth along the defensive line — and one of the league’s best pressure rates. It will be another tough day in the trenches. I don’t, however, think their secondary will hold up as well as the Titans’ did; Kansas City should once again be able to move the ball through the air. The Jacksonville offense does have some talent, but the offensive line is vulnerable — and quarterback Trevor Lawerence can give the ball away. Look for the Chiefs to capitalize on some turnovers. If Kansas City can limit running back Travis Etienne — and play a clean game offensively — the Chiefs should be able to walk away 7-2.

Chiefs 30, Jaguars 21

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Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

The Chiefs might be talking up the Jaguars, but I'm not buying it. I watched Jacksonville live at Wembley a couple of weeks ago — and I came away extremely unimpressed. After a dismal offensive performance against the Titans, the Chiefs will be looking to rebound in a big way.

Chiefs 34, Jaguars 16

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Nate Christensen (@natech32)

If you just look at records, you’re probably not scared of Jacksonville — but the bones of this team are good. Head coach Doug Pederson has brought competency to the Jaguars’ offense, which ranks 11th in run success rate and third in pass success rate. The surprise has been coordinator Mike Caldwell’s defense, which ranks 11th in success rate against the pass and 10th against the run. Yet this team is 3-6 because they’re 1-6 in one-score games. The inexperience will matter in the fourth quarter, but the Jaguars are good enough on both sides of the ball to keep this game close. Still, when it matters, the talent difference will show up.

Chiefs 27, Jaguars 24

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John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

This week, Chiefs players and coaches (and even some pundits) have gone well out of their way to tell us the Jaguars are a better team than their record indicates — but that doesn’t mean that Kansas City is going to lose this game. I think it just means that the Chiefs probably won’t cover the spread — and we’ll have another matchup where folks will claim that Kansas City “played down to their opponent’s level.” Whatever. It’s hard to win games in this league — especially when every opponent treats it like the damn Super Bowl.

Chiefs 31, Jaguars 27

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Maurice Elston (@recenickelz)

The Jaguars are a better team than what their 3-6 record reflects. Their defense has only allowed 19.8 points per game, which is just outside of the top ten in points allowed. With eight interceptions, they’re also tied for seventh in the league. While their sack numbers do not jump off the page, they do have a strong defensive front that will present some challenges. I think this game will be a fight — but for only for three quarters. Then the Chiefs will dominate the fourth quarter and win by 10.

Chiefs 27, Jaguars 17

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Talon Graff (@CoachGraff34)

So far, the AFC South has been a gauntlet for the Chiefs. In Week 9, the Titans gave them everything they could handle. We all remember Week 3’s second-half meltdown against the Indianapolis Colts. Now they face Doug Pederson’s Jaguars, who are 3-6 but have not lost a game by more than seven points. 2021’s No. 1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence is still adapting to the NFL, so the defense should have a game plan to make him uncomfortable. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the offense will look to get back in rhythm with what is (hopefully) an improved running attack. Look for wide receiver Kadarius Toney to be a dark horse for a big game.

Chiefs 27, Jaguars 18

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Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)

Last Sunday. Kansas City earned every single yard against a very stingy Tennessee defense. Now the Chiefs are set to face another AFC South opponent: the Jaguars. Similar to the Titans, Jacksonville has a lot of quality depth along its defensive line — but if Patrick Mahomes can get time, the secondary can be had. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City will be locked in on containing Travis Etienne. If the defense can force Trevor Lawrence into obvious passing situations, there will be opportunities for turnovers.

Chiefs 34, Jaguars 17

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Zach Gunter (@ZachGunter08)

The Chiefs have seemed to struggle against the AFC South this season. But that doesn't mean they can't win this game. They just have to come in prepared to face a good running back: Travis Etienne. No sleepwalking.

Chiefs 35, Jaguars 24

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Conner Helm (@ArrowheadConner)

I think this is the game where Patrick Mahomes cements his case as the league’s MVP. Playing without Mecole Hardman, the Chiefs offense will go for 400 yards passing and five touchdowns. Mahomes will spread the ball around enough that five different receivers catch touchdown passes. On the defensive side of the ball, Steve Spagnuolo will make life for Trevor Lawerence miserable with his complex blitzing schemes. Lawerence — one of the worst quarterbacks against the blitz — is sacked four times and throws two interceptions as the Chiefs win big.

Chiefs 38, Jaguars 17

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Ashley Justice (@Justice_Paur88)

In this league, you often hear that no team should be overlooked — and that holds true for the Jaguars. I think they’re one upset win away from having the confidence to really be a team to watch. Still, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes — and you just can’t compare him to Trevor Lawrence. Whether the cold weather ends up impacting the Jaguars — or Kansas City just out-muscles the 3-6 visiting team — the odds are simply in the Chiefs' favor. I think this will be another game where we see multiple receivers make plays — and maybe even some fun plays that they want to work out. Either way, it’s a Kansas City victory.

Chiefs 33, Jaguars 17

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Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

I don’t think this is the break in the schedule that the Jaguars’ 3-6 record would make it appear to be. Former Chiefs coach Doug Pederson has fielded a very competitive team this season — but now he’s going to be in desperation mode, trying to keep his squad’s postseason aspirations alive. I see this being a back-and-forth offensive battle — one that ends with the master getting the best of his disciple.

Chiefs 30, Jaguars 24

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Aaron Ladd (aaronladd0)

The Chiefs host another AFC South opponent in a noon game. Let’s just take a minute and be thankful for that. Chiefs Kingdom should also be thankful that in a game that was much closer than many imagined, Patrick Mahomes willed his team to victory against Tennessee. Kansas City still has a variety of holes in all three phases — but ultimately, No. 15 is a great separator. I don’t expect this game to be nearly as nerve-racking or competitive.

Chiefs 35, Jaguars 21

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Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

In this game, Kansas City right tackle Andrew Wylie against Jacksonville edge rusher Josh Allen is a matchup that worries me. The Chiefs also need to find a way to slow down Jaguars running back Travis Etienne, who is a bona fide stud. That being said, it feels like this game was decided when the Jaguars decided to draft running back Leonard Fournette over Patrick Mahomes with the fourth pick in the 2017 NFL Draft; Jacksonville has been playing catchup ever since. Trevor Lawrence could one day grow into a superstar, but he’s not there yet. Doug Pederson is a good coach, but he still has a long way to go to be in the same category as Andy Reid. Jacksonville looks like a team that is just now setting out to build its legacy. It just isn’t there yet.

Chiefs 35, Jaguars 24

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Ricko Mendoza (@ricko_mendoza_)

The Chiefs have defeated the Jaguars five straight times — and this matchup should be no different. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a breathtaking performance against the Titans in which he threw for a massive 446 yards and one touchdown while leading the team in rushing with 63 yards and a touchdown. Unless this ends up being a trap game because of the now-primetime matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11, the combination of Kansas City being the overwhelming home favorite and the amazing play of their superstar quarterback makes it hard to imagine the Chiefs losing this one.

Chiefs 37, Jaguars 13

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Stan Nelson (@chiefsfanstan)

While there are those that think that this could be a classic trap game for Kansas City — and it certainly has all the ingredients for it — I don’t think the Chiefs are going to make the same mistakes they did in Week 3 against the Colts. And even if they somehow allow the Jaguars to hang around, in the end, Mahomes’ I-am-absolutely-not-going-to-allow-us-to-lose-this-game attitude will come through, allowing Kansas City to walk away with its seventh win. But I honestly do not think this one is going to be close. Across the board, the Chiefs are a far superior team.

Chiefs 34, Jaguars 17

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Tom Ruprecht (@truprecht)

That Titans game was bruising. I could see Kansas City being a little beat up and suffering a slight letdown. I like the Chiefs to win, but the line seems too high. Maybe this is the game Trevor Lawrence doesn’t throw a dumb red zone interception, so it stays close. But again: the Chiefs win.

Chiefs 27, Jaguars 17

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Kramer Sansone (@KramerTalks)

This game has all the writing on the wall that could make it a trap game for the Chiefs. The Jaguars came back and defeated the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 9 — and could use that momentum going into this week. I am curious how the Kansas City defense will adapt to a different RPO style — especially with how Travis Etienne has played in recent weeks. But this game will be won on turnovers — where I think the Chiefs will have the edge.

Chiefs 28, Jaguars 24

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Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

I would be more concerned about this being a trap game if Kansas City wasn’t coming off an underwhelming performance against the Titans. Given the contrasting ways in which the Chiefs and Jaguars typically start their games, this matchup will likely see a competitive first quarter. But as the game goes on, Jacksonville’s issues with adjusting on both sides of the ball will allow Kansas City to own the second half and come out on top. It will be one of those games where defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo trades yards for time as the fourth quarter goes on, so a late Jaguars score will probably make their performance look more respectable than it truly was.

Chiefs 31, Jaguars 20

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Nick Schwerdt (@nick_schwerdt)

Why have the Chiefs struggled out of the gates at home this season? They’ve had late comebacks against the Chargers, Raiders and Titans — and lost to the Buffalo Bills. I don’t have a great theory — and it probably doesn’t matter. This week it’s a good old-fashioned Noon kickoff against a middling Jacksonville squad that’s been a model of inconsistency this year. So that’s my working theory: that the early kickoff will get the Chiefs right on Sunday.

Chiefs 27, Jaguars 18

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Stephen Serda (@StephenSerda)

The Jaguars are the NFL’s third-youngest team — and their record shows it. They’ve got young talent on both sides of the ball that can give Kansas City more problems than we think — but the Chiefs' experience (and the fact that the game is at Arrowhead) will be what puts them over the top. I think it plays a little closer than we might like — and every time I pick Kansas City to win in a blowout, it goes the opposite way. While he’s playing at this level, Jacksonville’s young defense just isn’t up to the task of slowing down Patrick Mahomes.

Chiefs 31, Jaguars 21

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Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

Last Sunday, it was a heavyweight fight against a physical Tennessee team. This Jaguars matchup is going to be a completely different game to watch. Jacksonville can challenge the Chiefs with speed at the skill positions on both offense and defense. While they can run the ball, they aren’t as one-dimensional as the Titans were. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne will likely put up some numbers against Steve Spagnuolo’s group, which will keep this one relatively close. But in the end, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense will continue to execute like we have seen for much of the season. Sure... there’s always a chance for a stinker, but I am optimistic that the Jaguars’ defense won’t present the same challenges as those that have previously slowed the Kansas City offense. Watch Game 2 of Kadarius Toney’s Chiefs career and the second week of Trent McDuffie’s return; these two young players could be key contributors down the stretch. As the coaches try to revive the running game, I’d also expect a good stat line for Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Chiefs 38, Jaguars 20

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Bryan Stewart (@BryanStewart_)

Just going off my memory bank of similarly staged games in the Andy Reid era, this game most likely goes in one of two ways: either the Chiefs sleepwalk through it — and need Patrick Mahomes to save them from an upset late in the fourth quarter — or they come out ready to handle business in a dominant fashion. In this particular game, I expect the latter. Here’s the key stat: Jacksonville is 0-20 in their most recent games with temperatures below 40 degrees.

Chiefs 30, Jaguars 17

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Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

While there could be some thought that a young, up-and-coming Jaguars team could compete with the Chiefs, it is more likely that they are a year or two away — and that can happen only if the young Trevor Lawrence shows a little more consistency. Nowadays in Kansas City, perfection is expected — and there have been some fair gripes about the running game even amidst the team’s 6-2 record. When there is criticism, however, the Chiefs always seem to find a way to rise to the occasion; I expect them to be better on the ground against a run defense that’s allowed the league’s seventh-fewest yards per game. Jerick McKinnon being questionable does make me wonder if we finally see the Kansas City debut of running back Ronald Jones to help accomplish that. The Chiefs keep control — as the teacher, Andy Reid, bests his pupil, Doug Pederson.

Chiefs 34, Jaguars 16

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Dakota Watson (@dwatson_56)

Given the overtime slugfest that occurred against the Titans, I could see this game being tougher than it looks on paper. I think Jacksonville is an ascending team — one that should challenge for the playoffs next season. Head coach Doug Pederson knows the Chiefs well, and I think he’ll have a solid game plan that will have the Jaguars ready to play. Running back Travis Etienne will get his touches and have a solid game, but Kansas City will ultimately take advantage of Jacksonville’s mistakes to come away with a decisive win.

Chiefs 31, Jaguars 20

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

For the Titans game, Kramer Sansone had the staff’s best prediction with a 24-17 pick that was off by only eight points. Three other contributors — Nate Christensen, John Dixon and Zach Gunter — each had 14 points of error in their predictions of 27-17, 27-20 and 27-21. There was little change in the standings.