Chiefs vs. Buccaneers: Game and score predictions

In Week 3, every member of the Arrowhead Pride staff picked the wrong horse. The Indianapolis Colts defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 after the staff had turned in a collective prediction of a 34-19 Chiefs victory. But we weren’t alone. 97% of our readers also thought Kansas City would come home with a win — and one in three thought it would be a blowout.

In Week 4, the Chiefs are o the road to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is favored by one point.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

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Price Carter (@priceacarter)

In what may be the final chapter of Mahomes vs. Brady, it feels like this game is going to be all about defense. With several offensive line injuries and some struggles among their new skill players, the Chiefs are going into this game limping on offense. The Buccaneers’ defense can certainly help those struggles continue. I’d be surprised to see the Chiefs score more than 24 points. However, the Tampa offense has been even worse, scoring only three offensive touchdowns in three games — although the return of Mike Evans, Julio Jones and Chris Godwin may change that. Against the Chiefs’ improved pass rush, I think Tom Brady is going to struggle in the pocket — but at the end of the day, Evans, Leornard Fournette and Brady are just going to do enough to win a tight one. Brady just doesn’t lose two games in a row very often.

Buccaneers 27, Chiefs 24

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Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

I’m worried — like really worried. The Chiefs now enter a stretch of the season that will effectively decide if they’re in the running for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. My concern is that you want the offense to be clicking at a time like this — but it simply isn’t. Now the Chiefs have the challenge of facing a defense that will hold the mental advantage, along with a quarterback that is widely considered the greatest of all time.

Buccaneers 23, Chiefs 17

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Nate Christensen (@natech32)

I usually feel I have a pretty good bead on an upcoming game — but honestly, I don’t have a great feel for this one. Both defenses are bad matchups for the opposing teams. The Buccaneers' defense is a problem for the Chiefs right now. Todd Bowles will send exotic pressures and play man coverage, which has been the offense’s Achilles’ heel for the last two weeks. On the other hand, the Tampa Bay offense is a mess right now, ranking 30th in EPA per play. Mike Evans is back this week — and Chris Godwin may return — but the offensive line is in disarray. To me, this is a low-scoring game — and whichever team gets the ball last will wins. Right now, I’m more confident that the Chiefs will generate enough points to win.

Chiefs 16, Buccaneers 13

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John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

If you believe the Chiefs were defeated in Indianapolis because it was a trap game, then you must believe they’ll be prepared for this one. Personally, I don’t think trap games really exist for professional athletes. But I also don’t believe an Andy Reid team will stink up the joint in two straight weeks — so I guess it works out the same. Just like in Super Bowl LV, though, it’s not going to be easy. There’s no question about it: the Buccaneers’ defense is first-rate. But when it is on its game, so is the Chiefs’ offense — and I think it will be ready to rock. This should be a low-scoring, defensive slugfest. But it will be one that Kansas City narrowly wins.

Chiefs 23, Buccaneers 20

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Justin Eichman (@justin_eichman)

The NFL loves storylines — and this game is full of them. Obviously the most notable is the quarterback battle between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. But the key in this game could be which offensive line can protect their legendary quarterback better. Unlike in the past, Brady is without a stellar interior offensive line — so Chris Jones’ play could dictate a lot of this game. In the end, I think we get another fun chapter in the book about two great teams and two great quarterbacks.

Chiefs 26, Buccaneers 24

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Maurice Elston (@recenickelz)

This game will feature two of the league’s best quarterbacks — both of whom are coming off tough losses where they could have played better. While both offenses have had their share of struggles this year, both defenses have been very solid. I think this game comes down to the trenches: which of the offensive and defensive lines will win their battle? I think the Chiefs’ big guys will take this game to heart, creating both running room and more time for Mahomes to deliver his magic.

Chiefs 21, Buccaneers 17

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Talon Graff (@CoachGraff34)

Coming off a letdown performance in Indianapolis, the Chiefs travel once again — this time to Tampa Bay to face Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. With the defense Tampa Bay has been putting on the field, the Kansas City offense will have a tough task. The offensive line will need to account for Devin White in the middle, along with the array of talented pass rushers the Buccaneers possess. The Brady-led offense is not what many expected it to be — and is also dealing with multiple injuries at key positions. With the way the Kansas City defense has looked through three weeks, this one has the makings of a defensive bout. Each squad is coming off its first loss, but I’ll give Mahomes and his teammates the sight edge to bounce back in Week 4.

Chiefs 18, Buccaneers 14

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Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)

Last week was rough! The Chiefs weren’t locked in —- and ultimately, that was the reason why they lost in Indianapolis. Things will only get tougher as they head to Tampa to face Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The Tampa Bay defense is as good as advertised — especially up front — which will be a major challenge for Kansas City’s offense. On the flip side, we’re not sure to whom Brady will be throwing the ball. That’s a major problem. Through three games, Brady has thrown only three touchdowns. I think that for the most part, both defenses will have their way — but Mahomes’ elusiveness will lead to a play or two that should put the Chiefs over the top.

Chiefs 23, Buccaneers 20

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Zach Gunter (@ZachGunter08)

OK... yikes! I completely missed on my prediction for Week 3’s game. But as I’ve said in both of my other articles, I’m much more cautious now. That Buccaneers’ defense is ridiculous. While the Chiefs' offense is good, I’m not sure that it can overcome the Tampa Bay defense. Over the last three weeks, the Buccaneers have allowed only 27 points while garnering 41 for themselves. That’s a little over 1.5 times the points allowed. This game will be low-scoring and very close — similar to the Green Bay Packers game in Tampa Bay last weekend.

Chiefs 20, Buccaneers 17

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Conner Helm (@ArrowheadConner)

I’m not one to look at the Chiefs through rose-colored glasses, but I think the loss to the Colts caused an overreaction from Kansas City fans. This Chiefs defense is really good — and this week, I believe they are going to once again prove just how good they are. Tampa Bay’s line is really beat up and Brady is a statue behind them. I believe Chris Jones, Frank Clark and the rest of Sack Nation gets after Brady, picking up five sacks while limiting Leonard Fournette to under 50 yards rushing. The Chiefs’ offense will show signs of growth in the passing game, easing the concerns of the last two weeks.

Chiefs 24, Buccaneers 17

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Ashley Justice (@Justice_Paur88)

With both teams looking to bounce back after losses, this rematch could be a turning point for both offenses. Even with Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans returning for this game, the Chiefs have something to prove after last week’s woeful loss to the Colts. I would put my money on Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes coming out strong against a defense that mocked Kansas City’s offensive line earlier this week. We know Mahomes loves to keep score — both on and off the field.

Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 17

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Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

It’s easy to forget how much vengeance will be on the Chiefs’ minds as they take on the team that throttled them in Super Bowl LV. The defense has a lot of the same players and the same play-caller — and have only improved since that dominant performance. They’re going to make things hard on Mahomes and the offense, so this game has to be won with an outstanding defensive effort. I see the Chiefs playing well against Brady, but the offense failing to carry enough of the load.

Buccaneers 20, Chiefs 17

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Aaron Ladd (aaronladd0)

Last week? Woof. After Kansas City’s special-teams debacle in Indianapolis, throw away any predictions about it. Waayyyy too many unforced errors ushered the Chiefs to their first loss of 2022. I trust this team to follow the 24-hour rule, flush what happened against the Colts and turn the page to the Buccaneers — who are battling unique circumstances of their own that were brought on by Hurricane Ian. I think this game comes down to Kansas City’s defense against an embattled Tampa Bay offense — which still hasn’t scored a first-half touchdown. An aggressive defensive front salts this game away.

Chiefs 24, Buccaneers 17

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Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

They say time heals all wounds. Yeah... right! Tell that to the Count of Monte Cristo and Chiefs fans who watched Patrick Mahomes run for over 500 yards behind the line of scrimmage in Super Bowl LV. This game isn’t about winning or losing. It’s about vengeance. Through the first three weeks of the season, Tom Brady has looked more like Peter Brady than a Hall of Fame quarterback. Even with wide receiver Mike Evans back from suspension, I don’t see this banged-up, aging Buccaneers team keeping pace with the Chiefs. After laying an egg last week, they will have something to prove.

Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 10

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Ricko Mendoza (@ricko_mendoza_)

Although the hype and star power surrounding this game calls for it to be an offensive bonanza, a closer look may reveal otherwise. Similar to the Colts last week, Tampa Bay has an athletic defense headlined by a run-stuffing defensive line. No team has scored more than 14 points against it — and it ranks first in opponent points allowed. This is potentially troublesome for a Kansas City offense that struggled in the red zone during Week 3. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense — coming off a five-sack game — could cause problems for the banged-up Buccaneers offensive line, forcing Tom Brady to get rid of the ball even faster than usual. If the Chiefs can stop the short passes, get pressure on Brady and score just enough points, they will successfully avenge their Super Bowl LV loss.

Chiefs 17, Buccaneers 14

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Stan Nelson (@chiefsfanstan)

The game in Indianapolis was a real wake-up call that opened the eyes of many Chiefs fans — and removed their rose-colored glasses. Those fans include me. The old saying is that no team is ever as bad or as good as they look — and I think there is real truth to that. The Chiefs were served a big slice of humble pie and that will serve them well as they head to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers. Both teams are going to claw for points. Look for Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones and the rest of the Chiefs to have learned enough in Week 3 to go into Raymond James Stadium and beat the Buccaneers (and Tom Brady) in a low-scoring defensive slugfest where points will be at a premium.

Chiefs 19, Buccaneers 17

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Tom Ruprecht (@truprecht)

I think the Super Bowl embarrassment — combined with Shaquil Barrett’s comments — are going to inspire a strong performance from the Chiefs’ offensive line. I worry, however, that Kansas City will waste a lot of time trying to establish a running game that is ultimately not going to be effective. Who knows where the Buccaneers are emotionally? But I could see them playing with a purpose — like the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football after Hurricane Katrina. At the end of the day, the only way I like the Chiefs’ chances is if I pick the Buccaneers. (Yes, my woeful predictions are that powerful). So I say Tampa Bay wins a low-scoring game.

Buccaneers 17, Chiefs 14

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Kramer Sansone (@KramerTalks)

After an embarrassing loss against the Colts last week, I think we are going to see the Chiefs take another loss in Week 4. The Buccaneers’ front seven is definitely a lot better than the Colts group that wreaked havoc against the Kansas City offensive line. This is the first game where I feel like the Chiefs are going to be outmatched. In addition, the game being played in Tampa Bay plays to the Buccaneers favor; if it were being played elsewhere, Chiefs fans would make it a home game. Then again... they tried that in Indianapolis last week.

Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 24

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Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

I will start my prediction by stressing how much I hope to be proven wrong. I believe Reid and Mahomes will work through the issues plaguing the offense — but the lack of execution looks like something that might get worse before it gets better. The much-needed get-right game probably will not happen against the Buccaneers' defense. I think the improved Chiefs defense will turn in a solid day, but I expect Tom Brady to do just enough to outlast the Chiefs in a sloppy, frustrating game.

Buccaneers 23, Chiefs 17

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Nick Schwerdt (@nick_schwerdt)

It feels strange that this game doesn’t have more buzz. Perhaps that’s because both teams are coming off losses and don’t exactly have their full complement of players at 100%. Either way, you’ve got two teams who are theoretically facing ideal get-right games. Ultimately, I think the Buccaneers’ defense is the difference in this one. They’re one of the best units in the league — and I’m taking a more cautious outlook on the Kansas City offense.

Buccaneers 27, Chiefs 21

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Stephen Serda (@StephenSerda)

I have to believe the Chiefs can put together a better performance in primetime than they did in Week 3 against the Colts. I know Tampa Bay’s defense has been fantastic — but the Chiefs' defense has been good in its own right. Of course, the return of Mike Evans presents a problem — but I’m more worried if they are also able to add Julio Jones and Chris Godwin back to the lineup. Despite what Shaquil Barrett says, I still think the Tampa Bay offensive line is currently worse than Kansas City’s — and in this one, I like the Chiefs’ defense to step up and create some turnovers. The Buccaneers’ defense hasn’t exactly faced a powerhouse offense just yet — and I think Mahomes is ready to even the series against Brady.

Chiefs 28, Buccaneers 21

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Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

The Chiefs are in a bit of a funk right now — especially on offense. What could be the thing that breaks them out of it? It’s probably not facing one of the league’s best defenses and Tom Brady. Given that this is likely to be a close, low-scoring affair, Harrison Butker being out really hurts. Let’s hope that Kansas City unleashes its secret weapons (like Skyy Moore and Jody Fortson) to make splashes against the Buccaneers. But the best bet is to rely on the young Chiefs defense to make the difference. Maybe George Karlaftis gets on the board with a Brady sack? Let’s watch him turn that GOAT into Gyro meat.

Chiefs 17, Buccaneers 14

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Bryan Stewart (@BryanStewart_)

I don’t have a ton of faith in either offense right now — especially as they prepare to go up against very solid defenses. For me, the key to watch (for both teams) is which wide receivers play. Tampa Bay will need Chris Godwin and/or Julio Jones if they want to have a shot at scoring deep into the 20s. For Kansas City, it actually might benefit them if one of their primary starters rests this game so they can see what they have in rookie Skyy Moore. With his ability to quickly get open, he’s exactly the type of receiver they’ll need this week.

Chiefs 20, Buccaneers 16

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Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

In the framing of being a Super Bowl contender, it feels like both of these teams (each with with sky-high aspirations) enter the game in a little bit of a desperation mode. For me, the key of the game comes down to this: which offensive line (that has been underwhelming so far) steps up on Sunday Night Football? I keep coming back to the bulletin board material provided by Shaquil Barrett, and how the Chiefs' offensive line should be livid. I think the added motivation bites the Buccaneers.

Chiefs 24, Buccaneers 17

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Dakota Watson (@dwatson_56)

After completely whiffing on my Week 3 prediction (in which I was so confident), I truly don’t have a great feel for this game against the Buccaneers. Both offenses have struggled this season, which is an unusual sight for the quarterbacks at the helms of the two teams. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ defense has been lights-out — and the Chiefs’ defense has been its most reliable unit. With both teams coming off their first loss, I think the Chiefs will rebound with a more sound game plan, playing with a little more efficiency on offense — while the defense continues its ascension — in a low-scoring affair.

Chiefs 23, Buccaneers 20

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

In Week 3, Price Carter and Rocky Magaña shared the dubious honor of having the least-wrong picks for the Chiefs-Colts game. Their 28-21 and 28-24 predictions each had 22 points of error. Ricko Mendoza and Kramer Sansone each turned in calls with 26 points of error.

Although we didn’t publish them, we collected predictions for all of our new staff members for both Week 1 and Week 2. Zach Gunter and Conner Helm (with just two points of error) and Ricko Mendoza (with only six) all had better prognostications than the rest of the staff in Week 2. In Week 1, Zach tied with Kramer for the best prediction and Nate Christensen pushed Pete Sweeney out of second place.

Three of our new staffers now occupy the top five in our standings. They came to play!