Chiefs vs. Bills: Game and score predictions

For the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 5 matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders, all of Arrowhead Pride’s contributors picked the Chiefs to win — and 56% thought it would be a blowout. So our combined prediction of a 36-21 Kansas City victory was 28 points removed from the Chiefs’ narrow 30-29 win. Our readers were less convinced a blowout was coming — just one in three thought Kansas City would win big — but almost half thought it would be an easy win.

In Week 6, the Chiefs face the Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Buffalo is favored by 2.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

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Price Carter (@priceacarter)

The most important thing to remember in this game is that nothing about it matters — other than seeding. Sure... it would be great to host the Bills in Arrowhead again, but that’s all that really matters. As we saw last year, a regular-season win is just that. Still, the Buffalo pass rush is the biggest factor in the matchup. Since ht teams last met, it’s the most improved unit for either squad. The Kansas City offensive line has a major challenge ahead of it. This is the type of game where one or two defensive stops (or turnovers) could be all it takes to win. In his career, Josh Allen has been prone to fumbles and interceptions — so if an opportunity presents itself, the Chiefs cannot waste it. Ultimately, the Bills are just too strong in some of the most important places. Mahomes and the offense will keep it close, but I just can’t see Kansas City having the horses to seal the game.

Bills 37, Chiefs 31

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Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

Earlier this week, I managed to talk myself into the Chiefs winning. Now that the Chiefs will be a bit light of defensive backs, however, I'm leaning toward the Bills. I don't think this will be the last time I change my mind.

Bills 34, Chiefs 31

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Nate Christensen (@natech32)

If I had to be perfectly honest, I wouldn’t pick either team to win. Both have a great case to come away with a victory. They’re the two best teams in the league — and I don’t feel it’s particularly close. But after careful consideration, I am going to pick Buffalo. The Chiefs are still undergoing some changes on both sides of the ball — so right now, it doesn’t feel like they’re a complete team. But the Bills have been together for long time. I don’t believe it’ll matter in the playoffs — but in Week 6, I see it being a bigger deal. It won’t be a blowout, but for the most part, I do think the Bills will control the game.

Bills 31, Chiefs 23

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John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

Well, at least no one is going to be concerned this will be a trap game for the Chiefs. But I think it’s fair to wonder if the Bills will be incredibly motivated to avenge the 13 seconds that changed everything in the AFC’s Divisional round in January. After all, that’s what happened a year ago, when Buffalo embarrassed the Chiefs 38-20 after being defeated in an Arrowhead playoff game during the 2020 postseason. But Kansas City made numerous mistakes in last season’s Week 5 loss. I just don’t think that’s going to happen this time. Let’s be fair: the Bills can win this game. I just don’t think they will.

Chiefs 34, Bills 31

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Justin Eichman (@justin_eichman)

A preview of what feels like another certain playoff matchup is upon us. Before the Chiefs pulled off what nobody thought was possible in 13 seconds last postseason, the Bills came in and embarrassed the Chiefs in Week 5. This loss dropped the Chiefs to 2-3. Now things feel different for the Chiefs. The main factor in this game might be the health of Kansas City’s defensive backs. With Rashad Fenton, Bryan Cook and Trent McDuffie unavailable, there is major uncertainty about who (if anyone) can shut down the Buffalo’s receivers. But the good news is the Chiefs have an offensive unit that has found its rhythm. Unlike when these two teams met in the regular season last year, the Chiefs’ offense is leading the NFL in scoring. Prepare for another exciting matchup between what are likely the two best teams in the NFL.

Chiefs 30, Bills 28

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Maurice Elston (@recenickelz)

The matchup we’ve all been waiting for! This is just not two of the best quarterbacks going head-to-head. This is two of the best teams facing off. This is an all-around Bills team with few weaknesses — but I think Patrick Mahomes’ evolution will be the difference-maker in this game. If he continues doing what he did in the second half against the Raiders — taking what the defense gives him, getting the ball out more quickly while still taking the downfield shot down when it’s there — the Chiefs will be hard to beat. But in the end, I think this game will be decided by which defense makes the big play.

Chiefs 35, Bills 30

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Talon Graff (@CoachGraff34)

What needs to be said about the weight of this matchup that hasn’t already been dissected? The history between these two organizations reaches back to 1960, when each team was a franchise in the original AFL. On Sunday, they will meet for the 53rd time. Even though the odds of it topping the 52nd contest are low, it could still be one of the season’s best games. So far, Buffalo has looked the part, with Josh Allen leading the way to a 4-1 record that is identical to Kansas City’s entering Week 6. It looks like right guard Trey Smith will be back, which will help a ton with the push that will be coming from the Bills’ front seven. The Kansas City defense has already passed a few tests this season — but this is the midterm that everyone has been prepping to take. The Chiefs always seem to play their best when the marquee teams come to town — so buckle up, folks. In this one, anything can happen.

Chiefs 37, Bills 34

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Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)

After their sluggish start against the Raiders, I feel comfortable saying the Chiefs will be a lot more focused from the jump on Sunday. With Rashad Fenton and Bryan Cook being ruled out, however, I’m extremely concerned about the secondary. It also doesn’t help that Josh Allen is the one who is coming to town. Patrick Mahomes and his pass catchers will have to be nearly perfect — and considering the strength of the Buffalo defense, I believe it will be able to make just enough stops to come out victorious.

Bills 38, Chiefs 31

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Zach Gunter (@ZachGunter08)

This will be a close match. Unlike my prediction that the Chiefs would struggle against the Buccaneers, I am confident that the Kansas City offense will keep this one close. Arrowhead is a lethal site for any visiting team — including the Bills. These are the two best teams in the league and it will show. With Trey Smith, Harrison Butker coming back, all three sides of the ball should be better than they were on Monday. Win or lose, this will be a very exciting game.

Chiefs 41, Bills 38

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Conner Helm (@ArrowheadConner)

Because I’ll be in section 316:

Chiefs 38, Bills 34

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Ashley Justice (@Justice_Paur88)

The Chiefs and Bills have always put on a show. Sunday will be no different. Buffalo has a better team this year — and they have something to prove. After all, who knew 13-seconds could last a lifetime? This may be the best Bills team Kansas City has faced — and it is looking for redemption. If there was ever a time for the Buffalo to come into Arrowhead and win, it’s now. If there was ever a Bills roster that would have a shot at moving the Arrowhead Invitational to upstate New York, this is the one. They say that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. In this case, the squirrel is a monster of a team with a chip on its shoulder — and the talent to back it up. The Bills win on Sunday.

Bills 41, Chiefs 37

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Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

It might not be what anyone wants to hear, but I understand why the Bills are seen as Super Bowl favorites over the Chiefs — and I recognize why they are favorites in this game at Arrowhead. Last season, we saw how evenly matched these teams were. In the offseason, only one has only added talent; the other has dealt with turnover on both sides of the ball. All that does is set up Patrick Mahomes to play with an underdog mentality — and Andy Reid to feel like he needs his A-plus game plan. It’ll be a shootout, but the home team gets the edge.

Chiefs 38, Bills 34

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Aaron Ladd (aaronladd0)

It’s taken some time but we’ve finally made it. The epic Chiefs-Bills rivalry adds another chapter on Sunday at Arrowhead — and these two teams once again look like the cream of the crop in their conference. On our Coast 2 Coast podcast, we’ve fielded a series of questions about Kansas City’s offensive inconsistencies. Monday night’s comeback from a 17-point home deficit simultaneously showed Kansas City’s warts and its resolve. But alas... for the first time in 41 career home starts, Mahomes and the Chiefs are underdogs. My gut says that Vegas is right. Buffalo takes Round 1 of what is likely to be a two-bout fight that will conclude in January.

Bills 32, Chiefs 27

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Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

This game might end up in overtime. Buffalo has the deeper roster — and Von Miller desperately wants to beat the Chiefs. I’m worried about keeping Mahomes upright against the Bills’ pass rush. Kansas City needs to establish the run early so they can set up play-action passes to keep the heat away from Mahomes. Willie Gay Jr. being suspended might be the deciding factor. The Chiefs have to stop Josh Allen from running; I’d have Nick Bolton spy on him for the whole game. I’m picking Buffalo to win, but I really hope I’m wrong.

Bills 41, Chiefs 38

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Ricko Mendoza (@ricko_mendoza_)

If this game is anything like last postseason’s Divisional round matchup, then Chiefs Kingdom is in for a treat. Both teams are 4-1 and tied for first place in the AFC as they battle for conference supremacy. The over/under for this game is 54 total points — and for the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career, the Chiefs are slight home underdogs. If the teams prove to be evenly matched, things will get very close. I’ll take my chances with a motivated Mahomes in a high-scoring shootout in front of a hyped-up Arrowhead crowd any day.

Chiefs 38, Bills 37

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Stan Nelson (@chiefsfanstan)

Based on the simple eye test, the Bills look like a slightly stronger team than the Chiefs. Just last week, Buffalo cruised to an easy win over the Steelers while Kansas City survived another close shave with the Raiders. In last year’s regular season, the Bills easily handled the Chiefs. But this year is this year. We’re still learning to never count out a Mahomes-led team. It is going to be a slobberknocker at Arrowhead, but I see the Chiefs once again snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.

Chiefs 40, Bills 38

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Tom Ruprecht (@truprecht)

Yeah, I’m worried. I can’t imagine a team being more motivated than Buffalo this week. While I love the improvements the Chiefs’ defense has made, I don’t know if they can slow down the Bills’ offense. I expect Mahomes to be typically brilliant, but this game will be the kind of track meet in which Tyreek Hill’s absence will really be felt. I would love for there to be some big Maquez Valdes-Scantling plays against the weakened Buffalo secondary — but as I said, I’m worried.

Bills 38, Chiefs 31

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Kramer Sansone (@KramerTalks)

I know the Chiefs have only lost one game this season — but this is their biggest test. After what happened during last season’s playoffs, the Bills are going to try their hardest to win this game. But I think Buffalo is such a good team that they shouldn’t lose to Kansas City anyway. The Bills’ pass rush will pick apart an offensive line with Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie, applying constant pressure that will force Mahomes to make either bad throws or remarkable throws. I can see Mahomes having high numbers — but ultimately, the Chiefs will lose.

Bills 37, Chiefs 30

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Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

Through five weeks of the season, the Chiefs face questions about their offensive line, wide receivers and secondary. I believe all these issues will improve as the regular season continues — but this week’s game will serve as a learning experience. Kansas City will likely need to supplement its offensive line to negate the Buffalo pass rush, thereby reducing its ability to create explosive plays. I believe this game will more closely resemble last season’s back-and-forth playoff game more than the Bills’ regular-season rout — but at this point in the season, Buffalo looks like the more complete team. Taking my fandom out of the equation, I see the Bills winning a competitive game.

Bills 38, Chiefs 34

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Nick Schwerdt (@nick_schwerdt)

The most anticipated game of the NFL season is here. By almost every metric, these two offenses are far and away the best in the league. While Josh Allen continues to use the howitzer on his right arm to chuck the ball 60 yards downfield, Patrick Mahomes has evolved his game in 2022. We’re seeing the Chiefs utilize the short passing game more than we’ve ever seen with Mahomes — and yet the offense is as effective as ever. Ultimately, though, I think the Bills have a defense that is better equipped to slow down the opposing offense. I’ll take Buffalo in a close one.

Bills 34, Chiefs 28

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Stephen Serda (@StephenSerda)

As much as any team, the Buffalo Bills went all-in during the offseason, adding the last couple of pieces to ensure they would have a Super Bowl-caliber roster. While I think the Chiefs’ roster is deeper than it was last season, ultimately I think Buffalo just has too much depth across the board. They have playmakers at every position where they are needed — and Josh Allen is going to give the Kansas City defense all it can handle. Mahomes will make it a fun contest — but at this point in the season, I think Buffalo has a slight edge.

Bills 41, Chiefs 34

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Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

Some weeks, you have no idea what to expect. This isn’t one of those weeks. I think we can say with near certainty that this will be a shootout — and that it will feel like a playoff game. We can be confident that Patrick Mahomes will rise to the occasion — but that Josh Allen will, too. I doubt it comes down to 13 seconds again, but it will probably be close up to the end — and the last team to get the ball is probably going to win. I never, ever pick against the Chiefs — and at this point, I do believe the Bills are a little overrated. But when the NFL’s two best teams the NFL face off, sometimes the other one is going to win. The return of Butker and Smith will give the Chiefs a boost, but it might be Allen that gets the final score this week.

Bills 45, Chiefs 42

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Bryan Stewart (@BryanStewart_)

Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ offense have brought their best stuff during the biggest, most important regular-season games of the past few years. So I expect the plays to be there for Patrick Mahomes to have success — but only if the Kansas City offensive line steps up to the challenge beginning with the very first drive. They can’t mess around (like we saw on Monday night), because a big lead against Josh Allen and the Bills will just be too much to overcome. But the matchup will also come down to whether Kansas City can get consistent pressure in Allen’s face. Another nail-biter is in store.

Chiefs 32, Bills 30

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Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

I have been trying to remember the last time I picked a team over the Chiefs (with Patrick Mahomes starting) in our game predictions. I believe it was early 2018, as we were still learning about Mahomes in his first year as the starter. In Week 2, the Chiefs were traveling to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers, and I had my doubts about a second-year quarterback with two starts against the program built by Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger. Mahomes threw for six touchdowns that day as the Chiefs won 42-37. Mahomes went on to have an MVP season — and in the years to follow, I could never wrap my head around picking the other quarterback. I obviously didn’t think Mahomes would have an undefeated career, but predicting him to lose felt sillier and sillier as the weeks (and years) passed by. I’m breaking that streak Sunday, as Mahomes (hopefully for Chiefs fans, the Tom Brady in this scenario) takes on his Peyton Manning. Josh Allen is another fantastic quarterback in this league. He’s easily among the elite. I like Buffalo’s receiving corps better than I do Kansas City’s right now — and playing two Day 3 rookie cornerbacks (including one making his first career start) is highly concerning. I also think that given Allen’s Cam Newton-like dual-threat ability, this is the game where the Chiefs will miss Willie Gay Jr. the most. For the first time since 2018, I’m going the other way. Maybe Mahomes will throw another six touchdowns.

Bills 30, Chiefs 21

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Dakota Watson (@dwatson_56)

Last week’s Monday night matchup was an all-timer at Arrowhead. I think the stage is set for the next all-timer: Sunday afternoon against the 4-1 Bills. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they are banged up in the secondary at the wrong time. This will be a favorable matchup for Josh Allen. Buffalo has had this game circled on the calendar since Travis Kelce caught the game-winning touchdown pass in January’s overtime period — and the team will be firing on all cylinders from the opening whistle. I foresee a tough-fought game — with the Bills ultimately coming out on top.

Bills 38, Chiefs 30

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

In Week 5, John Dixon’s 34-27 pick carried 12 points of error to lead the staff. Aaron Ladd’s 32-24 pick was 14 points off, earning him second place and giving him a substantial jump in the standings.