Chiefs vs. Raiders: Game and score predictions

Ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs’ 41-31 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4, the Arrowhead Pride staff was a little divided. Seven of our contributors (28%) thought the Buccaneers would win a close game at home, 64% thought Kansas City would win a close game and 8% predicted a blowout. But nobody foresaw the Chiefs’ easy win. So our aggregate prediction of a 21-19 victory wasn’t very close.

Our readers were similarly divided — but to their credit, 11% thought Kansas City would notch an easy victory.

In Week 5, the Chiefs face the Las Vegas Raiders for Monday Night Football from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs are favored by seven points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

Price Carter (@priceacarter)

Last week against the Denver Broncos, the Raiders really seemed to turn things around. They appeared to find their offensive identity by getting Josh Jacobs going in the running game. Adding Hunter Renfrow back into the passing game certainly makes their offense a legitimate threat. But with the Kansas City defense dominating against the run, it feels like the Las Vegas offense will be forced to be one-dimensional. So if the Chiefs can get pressure on Derek Carr, I expect a dominant defensive performance. Ever since Patrick Mahomes became the starter, the Raiders have struggled against the Kansas City offense. Expect the Chiefs to go to the air early (and often) against the weak Las Vegas secondary. Kansas City should be able to control the line of scrimmage and come away with an easy win.

Chiefs 31, Raiders 17

---

Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

Thou shall never doubt Patrick Mahomes ever again.

Chiefs 37, Raiders 20

---

Nate Christensen (@natech32)

Before the season, I was high on this Raiders team. But so far, it’s been just average. Still, it presents a threat. The Las Vegas offense has weapons — and if Andy Reid doesn’t bring an A-plus game script, I could see the Chiefs having a dip in performance. I would expect a standard Reid game: a fast start, followed by a cruise to the end. The Raiders are talented, but the Chiefs are too talented to give up a lead.

Chiefs 24, Raiders 17

---

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

On paper, the Chiefs should easily win this game. But that isn’t where NFL games are played. This is a primetime divisional game against a desperate opponent with playmakers on both offense and defense. As long as the Chiefs show up to play (and I think they will), they’ll put another win in the record books. But I also think the Raiders will put up a fight — and should the Chiefs put up a big lead, Las Vegas will make the score look much closer than the game really was.

Chiefs 34, Raiders 27

---

Justin Eichman (@justin_eichman)

The Chiefs again find themselves again in a weird spot. Coming off an emotional win over the Buccaneers — in which Kansas City scored more points in its first two drives than it did in all of Super Bowl LV — it now faces the AFC West’s last-place team. With the Bills game looming just six days away, the Chiefs once again have to worry about looking ahead — but the Raiders simply have too many holes in their defense. And while the Las Vegas running game has come on strong, the Chiefs have the league’s best run defense.

Chiefs 37, Raiders 20

---

Maurice Elston (@recenickelz)

When the schedule is first released, any Raiders game is always one that you circle. But recently, what was once a very strong rivalry hasn’t been as competitive; the Chiefs won both of last year’s games convincingly. I don’t see this matchup being much different. I look for the Kansas City offense to continue building chemistry while the Chiefs' defense will continue to shut down the run. This will force Derek Carr to win the game — but once again, Carr will come up short.

Chiefs 38, Raiders 17

---

Talon Graff (@CoachGraff34)

Kansas City rebounded nicely with a big win in Tampa Bay. Now they’re dialed in for Raider Week. The Chiefs blew out the Raiders twice last season — and now, Las Vegas is struggling to put games into the win column. Still, the team hasn’t lost a game by more than six points all year. If the Kansas City offense comes out the way it did against the Buccaneers, the Raiders may be in for a tough night. Quarterback Derek Carr and wide receiver Davante Adams will be the focus of Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. If the defensive line does their usual thing, I see the Chiefs winning by a couple of possessions.

Chiefs 38, Raiders 24

---

Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)

After the Chiefs blew out the Buccaneers last Sunday night, all is well in Chiefs Kingdom. Patrick Mahomes looked like himself — and there’s no reason to feel like he won’t against the Raiders on Monday night, either. The Las Vegas defense is nothing to write home about. When you couple that with a sputtering offense led by Derek Carr, the Chiefs should roll.

Chiefs 45, Raiders 24

---

Zach Gunter (@ZachGunter08)

Over the last two weeks, I’ve been pretty inaccurate; my predictions have either been too aggressive or too conservative. This week, however, I feel pretty confident in my prediction — because I think I know what the Raiders offer. Over his career against Las Vegas, Patrick Mahomes has 22 touchdowns to only three interceptions — and although the edge rush improved in the offseason, I don’t think the Raiders’ defense is all that good. The Raiders seem to be about equal with the Arizona Cardinals — a team that Kansas City beat handily. I believe the Chiefs have found their groove. Over the remainder of the season, they will only improve.

Chiefs 44, Raiders 16

---

Conner Helm (@ArrowheadConner)

I’m more concerned about the Raiders’ offense than any other the Chiefs have faced this year. The combination of Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller will give the Chiefs’ young secondary fits. I expect the Raiders to put points on the board, keeping the score close throughout the game. But I also believe we will see the Kansas City offense continue to evolve. With wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster questionable with a hamstring injury, Skyy Moore will finally get his chance to be a full-time player — and will show out. The running game, however, won’t be as impressive as in Week 4 — forcing Patrick Mahomes to have a five-touchdown game. The Chiefs win in a shootout.

Chiefs 38, Raiders 31

---

Ashley Justice (@Justice_Paur88)

For the Raiders, the days of taking a victory lap around Arrowhead are gone. When every team feels like a matchup against the Chiefs is their Super Bowl, staying focused (and not underestimating subpar teams) can be a challenge in and of itself. But with the Raiders, I don’t think the Chiefs have to worry about that. Under Josh McDaniels, Kansas City’s longstanding AFC West rival is not off to a great start after a tumultuous 2021 season. I think the Chiefs will take care of business — and before halftime, will be on to the next game.

Chiefs 42, Raiders 17

---

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

In Week 4, it was refreshing to see the Chiefs look like the unstoppable force we’ve become accustomed to seeing during the Mahomes era. I think it was important for a team full of newcomers to confirm to themselves that they can turn it on in that fashion. I’ll buy into the team building off that momentum — and another primetime Arrowhead crowd — to win an important division game. I can see the desperate Raiders giving Kansas City all they can — but when the Chiefs’ offense is humming, it still won’t be enough

Chiefs 40, Raiders 23

---

Aaron Ladd (aaronladd0)

Through four games, the Chiefs have shown us a Jekyll-and-Hyde-like ability to flip the switch. In Indianapolis, Kansas City showed some warts, sputtering on offense while imploding in special teams. But performances in Arizona and Tampa Bay showed us how special this team can be when everything is clicking on all cylinders. A primetime divisional game (with the Super Bowl favorite Bills looming) seems like a bit of a trap game. I expect Andy Reid to keep the offense on script while the defense gets to Carr early and often.

Chiefs 32, Raiders 24

---

Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

Last week, I predicted that the Chiefs would steamroll the Buccaneers. This week, I think the freight train keeps rolling. Sure... the Raiders have Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams — but they also have the most mediocre quarterback in the history of the NFL and an overpriced Chandler Jones, who has been doing the league’s best Where-in-the-World-is-Carmen-San-Diego impression all season. Add in that Josh McDaniels is completely out of his depth as a head coach (and is facing a refocused Kansas City offense), and I think the Raiders will be lucky to limp off the field in one piece.

Chiefs 38, Raiders 17

---

Ricko Mendoza (@ricko_mendoza_)

At this writing, the over/under is set at 51.5 points. So this game projects to be the highest-scoring matchup of the week. That makes sense — because both teams have plenty of offensive weapons. Raiders running back Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4, but now faces a Kansas City defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards (and second-fewest rushing touchdowns) this season. The Chiefs’ offense should have no problem putting up points, forcing Las Vegas into throwing more to keep up. I don’t think the Raiders can sustain that for the entire game. Kansas City will pull away, ending Week 5 with a 4-1 record.

Chiefs 41, Raiders, 20

---

Stan Nelson (@chiefsfanstan)

After a “What the heck was that?” loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, Kansas City bounced back with a satisfying victory in Tampa Bay. The Chiefs now return to Arrowhead with a head of steam and the Raiders in their sights. Las Vegas is coming off its first win of the season against a hapless Broncos team that failed to score a single touchdown on Thursday Night Football. Even though the Raiders’ three losses were by an average of only 4.3 points, look for Kansas City to continue to roll over their AFC West rival by double digits, extending its division dominance.

Chiefs 37, Raiders 23

---

Tom Ruprecht (@truprecht)

Can I just take a moment to say how grateful I am to be a fan of a team that doesn’t have Russell Wilson on the books for another seven years? I honestly don’t know how a Broncos fan gets out of bed. Anyway... on to the Chiefs. Last week, it was the tight ends — so on Monday night, it’s the wide receivers’ turn to get some touchdowns. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore help lead the way as the Chiefs roll.

Chiefs 34, Raiders 17

---

Kramer Sansone (@KramerTalks)

I get it: Kansas City had an impressive win last week — and this is a game that the Chiefs should win. But the biggest question mark is how the Kansas City offensive line will hold up against the Raiders’ pass rush. Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones have been applying pressure to quarterbacks all season. I expect them to make an impact on this matchup — but unfortunately for Las Vegas, it will be the only one. The Chiefs have better offensive play-calling. That will be the biggest difference in this game.

Chiefs 35, Raiders 24

---

Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

The Raiders have been failed by a leaky offensive line — and outside of their two elite pass rushers, have been disappointed by their defense. The Chiefs will negate Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones by attacking the intermediate areas of the field, where running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and tight end Travis Kelce will punish an underperforming linebacker group. Kansas City’s players and coaches have enough experience with Derek Carr to plan smart pressure against the underperforming offensive line. The Chiefs will win comfortably — but by a lower-than-expected score stemming from long, time-consuming drives.

Chiefs 27, Raiders 19

---

Nick Schwerdt (@nick_schwerdt)

For the Chiefs, this game is situated in a peculiar spot. There are plenty of reasons to get up for the Buccaneers and the Buffalo Bills. In one game, you’re looking to exact revenge against the team that beat you in the Super Bowl. In the other, you’re seeking to maintain your status as the team to beat in the AFC. But in between those two games, you’ve got the lowly Raiders coming into Arrowhead for a primetime matchup. Las Vegas is not a good team. Their head coach looks like he is (once again) in over his head — and it turns out that Davante Adams and Chandler Jones weren’t enough to transform it into a contending team. But none of that matters on Monday night. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid own this division. It’s tough to bring the same intensity to every single game, but this isn’t one that Kansas City will overlook.

Chiefs 30, Raiders 20

---

Stephen Serda (@StephenSerda)

The Raiders have talent — their offense isn’t a total dumpster fire — but it’s hard for me to see a situation where they come into Arrowhead for Monday Night Football and beat the Chiefs. With the mismatches that Waller and Adams represent for the Kansas City defense, I think they can put up some points — but at the end of the day, the Chiefs are just much deeper from top to bottom. With the way Patrick Mahomes is playing right now, I just don’t see this terrible Raiders secondary being able to slow him down.

Chiefs 38, Raiders 27

---

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

It feels like the Chiefs got their season back on track last week — starting with the offensive line and the run defense. Both were outstanding against a very good opponent. Those aspects of this Kansas City team will face a similar test against a Raiders team that can run the ball — and has very good pass rushers. too. Also like Week 4, it will be a primetime contest — where the league’s better teams tend to step up and where Patrick Mahomes has historically been at his best — but even with a step back, the Chiefs will still probably beat Las Vegas. Still, it’d be nice to see them build upon some of the specific success they showed in Tampa Bay. For this team, stacking good wins on top of good wins is what it’s all about. Even if the Raiders aren’t great, a primteitme division win is a good win.

Chiefs 42, Raiders 24

---

Bryan Stewart (@BryanStewart_)

Since Andy Reid arrived, the Chiefs are always up for divisional games — and they have been especially tough for the Raiders to overcome. Mahomes and Reid will put up points — so the key will be ensuring that the defense can bottle up Josh Jacobs and the Las Vegas rushing attack so that they can be aggressive in pressuring quarterback Derek Carr. Same story, different year and day.

Chiefs 31, Raiders 21

---

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

The Raiders enter Monday Night Football with a 1-3 record, but I think they are slightly better than their record indicates. If there is ever a game for which the Chiefs need to be up, it is this one — as Davante Adams makes his Arrowhead Stadium debut in the silver and black. Las Vegas felt that the addition of Adams — and Chandler Jones — could make the difference in a division in which Patrick Mahomes is 22-3. ESPN’s Adam Schefter noted that Mahomes plays the Raiders particularly well: the Chiefs have scored 37.4 points per game in his eight starts against them. I think the Raiders' defense (now in season desperation mode) prevents the Kansas City offense from getting quite that far on Monday night — but I still like the Chiefs to pull out the victory.

Chiefs 26, Raiders 20

---

Dakota Watson (@dwatson_56)

Last season, the Chiefs went 2-0 against the Raiders with a combined score of 89-23. To this point — despite the marquee additions of Davante Adams and Chandler Jones — Las Vegas has not lived up to the offseason hype. Thanks largely to their running game, the Raiders got things going in Week 4, getting their first victory. Kansas City, however, has been stout against the run and good enough against the pass. The Chiefs should cruise to a 4-1 record, continuing their dominance against a struggling Raiders team that simply won’t be able to keep up.

Chiefs 34, Raiders 21

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

In Week 4, Stephen Serda’s call for a 28-21 Chiefs victory led the staff with 26 points of error. Ashley Justice was right behind with a 31-17 prediction that was 28 points off. Since seven contributors picked the Buccaneers, there was a big shakeup in the standings. Conner Helm moved into first place, John Dixon grabbed a share of second place and Pete Sweeney catapulted into the fourth spot.

Other reader picks from Week 5