Last season, the Chiefs won an astonishing 8(!) one-score games, going a perfect 8-0. This will not be repeated. I'm sure you've heard from every pundit how teams that win a lot of one score games regress to the mean the following season, and I don't think that the Chiefs will be any different. However, we are a very good team with a strong roster, so we may not be in too many one score games to begin with.
To calculate my guess, I first looked at every game on the Chiefs 2021 schedule, and picked each game that looked like it may require a close victory to eke out. I found seven; the Chargers (twice), Packers, Browns, Ravens, Titans and Bills. If we won the rest of our games and went .500 in one-score games against our toughest opponents, that would result in a final record of 13.5 wins. I decided to assume that we will actually have a losing record against these teams to counterbalance our exceptionally high winning record against them last year, resulting in a final record of 13-4.
While I think that this is an accurate win projection, don't be confused; this isn't how I see the season playing out on a week-by-week basis. The Chiefs will lose a few that they should win (a la Raisers last year), and dominate some of the tougher teams on their schedule (a la Ravens last year). But as a whole, a 13-4 win/loss projection sounds safe.
What say you, Chiefs Kingdom?