Close games, regression, and my 2021 win/loss projection

Last season, the Chiefs won an astonishing 8(!) one-score games, going a perfect 8-0. This will not be repeated. I'm sure you've heard from every pundit how teams that win a lot of one score games regress to the mean the following season, and I don't think that the Chiefs will be any different. However, we are a very good team with a strong roster, so we may not be in too many one score games to begin with.

To calculate my guess, I first looked at every game on the Chiefs 2021 schedule, and picked each game that looked like it may require a close victory to eke out. I found seven; the Chargers (twice), Packers, Browns, Ravens, Titans and Bills. If we won the rest of our games and went .500 in one-score games against our toughest opponents, that would result in a final record of 13.5 wins. I decided to assume that we will actually have a losing record against these teams to counterbalance our exceptionally high winning record against them last year, resulting in a final record of 13-4.

While I think that this is an accurate win projection, don't be confused; this isn't how I see the season playing out on a week-by-week basis. The Chiefs will lose a few that they should win (a la Raisers last year), and dominate some of the tougher teams on their schedule (a la Ravens last year). But as a whole, a 13-4 win/loss projection sounds safe.

What say you, Chiefs Kingdom?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.