Chiefs’ initial 2021 win total revealed — and it’s a good sign for KC

On Friday morning, the Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill posted initial projected NFL win totals for the 2021 season — and the Kansas City Chiefs came in with the league’s highest projected total.

2021 projected win total (Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill)

12 - Kansas City Chiefs

11.5 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

11 - Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers

10.5 - Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams

10 - Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks

9.5 - Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans

9 - Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers

8.5 - Minnesota Vikings

8 - Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Football Team

7.5 - Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos

7 - Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles

6.5 - Cincinnati Bengals

6 - Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets

5 - Detroit Lions, Houston Texans

AFC West

The Chiefs lead the AFC West at 12, followed by the Chargers (9), Raiders (8) and Broncos (7.5). This seems about right, though I have no problem swapping the Raiders and Broncos.

Surprises

Too high: Despite Cleveland’s 11-5 finish in 2021, 10 wins still feels like a bold prediction. The 49ers dealt with many injuries in 2020, but bouncing back from 6-10 to 10-7 also sounds lofty to me. Dallas (6-10) is set to return Dak Prescott, but with so much improvement needed on defense, 9-8 feels ambitious.

Too low: Given Joe Burrow’s anticipated return, 6.5 for the Bengals seems far too low. The Dolphins appear to be on the come-up entering Year Two of Tua, so I would bump them to 9.5 from 9.

Over/under - Kansas City (12)

Of his eight seasons in Kansas City, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has managed at least 12 wins in four seasons. The three seasons of Patrick Mahomes as a starter have all led to 12 wins or more — 12-4 (2018), 12-4 (2019) and 14-2 (2020).

Now the duo has an extra game. OVER.