Chiefs vs. Bills: Game and score predictions

For Week 4’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles, all of Arrowhead Pride’s contributors picked the Chiefs to win. Although it carried 14 points of error when compared to the 42-30 final, our composite prediction of a 36-23 Kansas City win called the point spread almost perfectly. Like us, most of our readers thought the Chiefs would win — almost three-quarters thought it would be at least an easy victory — but 8% thought the Eagles would take the game.

In Week 5, the Chiefs are on Sunday Night Football, facing the Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by three points. Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

I’m sure we all have memories of the 2008 game in which the Bills marched into Arrowhead and put on an offensive clinic against a Chiefs defense that couldn’t stop anything. That’s how I feel like Sunday night plays out. The Chiefs will get theirs, but the defensive deficiencies will be too much for even Patrick Mahomes to handle. Bills 53, Chiefs 41

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

I’ve agonized over this pick. On paper, the Bills should eke out a narrow victory; there’s no doubt they are currently one of the AFC’s top teams. But while the Chiefs have played some horrendous defense — and made some awful mistakes — to earn their 2-2 record, I just can’t bring myself to call for a Buffalo win. If the Bills had played some better teams to get to 3-1 — or if Josh Allen was playing at the same level he was in 2020 — I might feel differently. But while they didn’t get all the way around the corner against the Eagles, I think the Chiefs at least started making the turn. They’ll have to work very hard to earn this victory — but I think they will. Chiefs 33, Bills 30

Talon Graff (@CoachGraff34)

The Kansas City defense is getting reinforcements at the perfect time — but Buffalo’s offense has been hot as of late, even though Josh Allen still is yet to prove he can win in tough environments on a consistent basis. The Chiefs have had the Bills’ number in recent games, winning four out of the last five matchups. Kansas City will trot out Josh Gordon for the first time this season but the usual suspects will still produce. The Chiefs running game has been building momentum the last two weeks. In the the last regular-season meeting between these teams — almost exactly a year ago — Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for over 160 yards. But the Bills don’t give up a lot on the ground, so this could be the key to winning the game. While the Buffalo defense has been solid against the pass as well, the Chiefs offense is too talented to be stopped. Chiefs 30, Bills 28

Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)

If the Chiefs want to get the AFC’s first seed, they have to win this game. If they lose, they’ll be three games behind the Bills — and considering the two schedules the rest of the way, I don’t see a pathway for the Chiefs to catch them. They won’t say it out loud, but I believe the Chiefs are very aware of this reality; I believe they’ll be super pumped-up for this one. With the defense potentially being as healthy as they’ve been all year, I expect them to get enough stops to win the game. Also, while the Bills defense has looked great, please look at the quarterbacks they’ve faced; it’s hard to truly tell how good that unit really is. I just don’t see it slowing down this high-powered Chiefs offense — especially in Arrowhead. Chiefs 38, Bills 30

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

This is closer to a must-win game than we’d probably like to admit in Chiefs Kingdom. It isn’t quite there, but a loss would put the Chiefs two games behind the Bills — and possibly the Chargers, Browns and Ravens — in the AFC standings; they would not have the tiebreaker against three of those teams. I think the players and the coaching staff feel that urgency — in a good way. The coaching staff will have an excellent game plan on both sides of the ball, and the personnel being as healthy as they’ve been all year should help get it executed. The defense will still look shaky against an explosive offense, but they just need one or two stops with the way their own offense is playing — and I think they make that happen. Chiefs 37, Bills 30

Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

This game is going to come down to who has the ball last. If the Chiefs' defense can keep the Bills and Josh Allen to under 30 points, I think the Chiefs have this one in the bag. Hopefully, the return of Willie Gay Jr. will pay dividends — but I wouldn’t expect a huge leap in efficiency from the Kansas City defense. Buffalo has never been known for their running game. Will Josh Gordon give the Chiefs enough of a boost to retain their title as kings of the AFC? I hope so. Chiefs 31, Bills 28

Kramer Sansone (@KramerTalks)

I’ll cut to the chase: the Bills are going to beat the Chiefs on Sunday night. The Chiefs’ defense is what scares me. Linebacker coverage is not there and the secondary seems slow. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss should have a solid day on the ground — and even Josh Allen can scramble and get the necessary yards for a first down. The Chiefs’ offense might be excellent — but if they want to win this one, the defense is going to need to bail them out. It’s also been a trend since 2018 for the Chiefs to have the majority of their losses at Arrowhead. Two of 2018’s five losses (including the playoffs) were at home, along with three of four in 2019 and both of 2020’s losing efforts. The Chiefs already lost at home once this year. They are beatable at Arrowhead. Bills 34, Chiefs 21

Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

A month into the season, these are two difficult teams to compare with how different their levels of competition have been through the first four weeks. Buffalo and Kansas City also come to this game with much more efficient running games than in their matchups last season. I expect this to be the week that Andy Reid puts some new wrinkles in the offensive game plan — be it a bigger role for Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the passing game, bigger roles for backup tight ends or special packages for Josh Gordon. Early on, the teams will appear evenly matched — with neither team looking particularly good on defense. Late in the game, though, Patrick Mahomes will prevail over Josh Allen. This will also be a game where we should watch the weather; current forecasts suggest rainy conditions similar to when these teams met early last season in Buffalo. Such weather appeared to affect Allen much more than Mahomes. Chiefs 34, Bills 31

Stephen Serda (@StephenSerda)

The Bills are a very good football team, but their light start compared to the gauntlet the Chiefs have already faced doesn’t mean they are ready to beat the Chiefs. The Bills defense has been fantastic this year — but again, they’ve faced some of the worst and slowest offenses in the NFL. The Chiefs' defense hasn’t done a single thing to make you feel like they can turn this thing around, but the Bills seem primed and ready for a let-down kind of night where they turn the football over. That’s how the Chiefs win this game on Sunday: they have to win the turnover battle. The winner of this game could influence the outcome of the AFC for the rest of the year — and that’s why I’d put my money on the Chiefs. Chiefs 38, Bills 31

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

The 2-2 Chiefs might be misunderstood. They’ve played three of the AFC’s top teams — two of which are terrible matchups for what the Chiefs bring to the table. They got a reputation for bad run defense based on facing the best running teams in the league. They struggled to run the ball when the young running back and offensive line weren’t on the same page. They now have defensive statistics that are historically bad — but they haven’t been healthy yet, missing as many as four key contributors. They haven’t gotten anything from their backup receivers — except for the one game in which they did. Mahomes has been brilliant — except for when he wasn’t, which them two games. Perceptions can change on a dime in the NFL — especially early in the season. It’s dangerous to draw conclusions after Week 1, or even Week 3. Now, I think we’re starting to see that the Chiefs offensive line is gelling faster and better than we could have hoped. We’re seeing that Mahomes is playing more efficiently than ever — and that the turnovers have been his only issue. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has gone from being a problem to having back-to-back 100-yard games with touchdowns. The Bills may have the opposite perception issue. They have two shutout victories and people are talking about how historically great their defense is… but they’ve done it against backup quarterbacks and bad teams. So this game might just be the first real test: strength vs. strength between two teams whose early-season results don’t define who they are. I expect the Chiefs to be able to move the ball and score on the Buffalo defense, featuring a deadly-yet-balanced attack for which the NFL has no answers. I expect Josh Gordon to make just enough of a splash to get people excited about what he could be. I also expect the defense to do enough to win, as they get healthier and force some turnovers from Josh Allen. And I expect that this week changes perceptions about the Chiefs’ season. Chiefs 35, Bills 24

Bryan Stewart (@BryanStewart_)

I fully expect this game to be an offensive showcase where both teams put up their share of points. Like the Chiefs’ games prior to this one, the end result will come down to turnovers — more specifically, which offense can best avoid shooting themselves in the foot. I don’t really think there is a right way for the Bills defense to play this. If they play coverage, the Chiefs will run the football well. If they become more aggressive, Mahomes and his playmakers — Josh Gordon now included — will create explosive plays. The Kansas City defense has to apply pressure to Josh Allen to get him off his spot — even if it means blitzing with great frequency. Forcing inaccurate throws — which has always been Allen’s greatest weakness — is the only chance the defense will have to limit Buffalo’s points per drive, while also potentially intercepting some passes. Chiefs 31, Bills 28

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

I find it difficult to have much confidence in the Chiefs' defense as we’ve seen it thus far — especially with the Bills’ offense currently matching the Chiefs’ points-per-game output at 33.5. But here’s the question to which I keep returning: does it really matter? The answer to that question is, yes, if the Chiefs offense turns the ball over. The 42-30 win against the Philadelphia Eagles made me feel better about that crucial second part — and though I will admit this game tempted me to go the other way for the first time in a long while, I will stand with the Chiefs. Chiefs 38, Bills 34

Ethan Willinger (@ecwillinger)

Kansas City’s offense and Buffalo’s defense have been on a collision course. Statistically, both units are head and shoulders above the rest of the league. The Chiefs’ offense is rated first in Football Outsiders’ defense adjusted value over average (DVOA) at 41.1% (the Rams are second at 29.4%) — and the Bills’ defense is rated first in DVOA at -49.4% (the Saints are second at -18.4%). While the Bills are the more complete team (their offense has an advantage over the Chiefs’ struggling defense), Kansas City is right on Buffalo’s heels in DVOA adjusted for volatility early (DAVE), which projects a team’s outlook over the entire season without jumping to conclusions based on early wins and losses. Suffice it to say, this pick is tough. A blowout by either team would be the only result that surprises me. But I’m rolling with the Chiefs. I think Kansas City’s offense has an advantage over... well, anyone — and its defense will return several starters under the lights of a raucous Arrowhead Stadium. Chiefs 34, Bills 30

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

For the Eagles game, Bryan Stewart turned in the best pick. His call for a 37-27 Chiefs win carried just 10 points of error. Tom Childs was right behind him with a 38-24 prediction that was just 12 points off. Bryan moved up a notch in the standings, while Tom strengthened his hold on the lead.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.