This year’s AFC championship will be a rematch of the Week 6 game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, although this week’s game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium. It’s even looking like similar weather for the game: cold temperatures with some rain.
That might be where the similarities stop from the last matchup. In the 26-17 loss, Buffalo was missing starting tight end Dawson Knox, starting linebacker Matt Milano and a pair of rotation defensive linemen in Trent Murphy and Harrison Phillips. Their current offensive line also has two different starters from their Week 6 lineup.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid acknowledged the Bills players that will be back for this game, including Milano — who has been established as one of the league’s better coverage linebackers for a few years.
“He’s a heck of a football player,” Reid said of Milano. “He plays with great energy, he’s a good cover guy, good against the run. He is their quarterback of that group and he was missing our last game, so we look forward to the challenge of playing against him. He’s one heck of a player, and that’s what this is all about. So, they’ll be different than what they were when we played them, and our guys understand that.”
They’re different, and also better. The Bills have won 11 of 12 games since their loss to the Chiefs. After averaging 26 points per game through the first six weeks, Buffalo cranked their rate up to 34.5 in the last 10 games of the regular season.
Defensive tackle Chris Jones is well-aware that they’re playing at a different level now.
“Yeah, they’re rolling right now,” Jones described of the Bills’ eight-game win streak. “They’re playing some of their best ball, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The defense has improved since Week 6, since we played them. Their quarterback (Josh Allen) is playing outstanding. He’s playing at an MVP caliber level. They’re steamrolling right now and firing on all cylinders.”
Jones is right about Allen, but he and wide receiver Stefon Diggs had among their least-productive games of the season against the Chiefs defense last time. The offense had their second-lowest scoring output of the season, while Diggs had his second-lowest yardage total.
Safety Tyrann Mathieu recognized that the budding star quarterback could have played better, and gave us a peek behind the curtain with what he thinks the Chiefs defense will see this game.
“I think the last time we played them it probably wasn’t his best outing as a quarterback,” Mathieu recalled. “So I’m pretty sure they’re going to come in here this Sunday and try to get into a rhythm fairly quickly. I could see them using his legs early on to kind of get him in a groove because he’s one of those quarterbacks, once he gets into a groove, once he gets his confidence up, he’s tough to stop. So, I think it’ll be really important for us to come out of the gates playing really hard, really fast and everybody communicating.”
Another potential difference in this game could be the Chiefs’ quarterback — although starter Patrick Mahomes practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday. Chad Henne didn’t play last time around, but he sees the improvement their defense has made since.
“I definitely think they’re flying around,” Henne shared. “It’s a veteran group... They’re very aggressive, they’ve got a veteran group in the back end, linebackers are very mobile and can run around and their defensive line’s active, but I think they’re just flying around and obviously with this game being the AFC championship, the ante just goes up and we’re going to anticipate their best shot.”
They may be getting the best shot of any playoff opponent in the Mahomes era; the Bills’ offense is more explosive in the pass game than any of the prior foes.
Given the Bills’ confident defense, this should be the best competition the Chiefs have faced this season. It’s difficult to see this game finishing with a two-possession point margin like the first one did — and it does not feel as though the scoring will be as low.