Our wait is finally over. After a long, treacherous 20-day wait to see the Kansas City Chiefs starting unit back on the field, it is finally time.
Well rested, heavily invested and studied up, the Chiefs host the Cleveland Browns this Sunday afternoon after the Browns were able to dispatch the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Wild Card Round. There are some concerns about the Chiefs having so much time off in between games, but at the same time, Andy Reid teams are excellent off of longer breaks. It will be very interesting to see which Chiefs team shows up early on in this game against the Browns.
It is no secret that the Browns’ defense isn’t particularly good and the Chiefs' offense is one of the better units in the NFL. In this post, we are going to look forward to some ways the Chiefs offense can attack the Browns defense.
Middle-of-the-field passing
The Browns’ passing defense is especially bad over the middle of the field.
Over their last 5 games (vs starters) the Browns defense has allowed opposing offenses to have their way over the MoF.
— Matt Lane (@ChiefinCarolina) January 15, 2021
When throwing beyond the LoS, teams have gone 37/52 (64 cmp%), 456 yards (8.8YPT), and 2 TDs over the MoF.
Primary slot WRs and TEs have had a field day pic.twitter.com/iYLZ6Akmuu
Without context, those numbers don’t really mean anything, so let’s quantify it a little bit.
From a completion percentage standpoint, the 64% aligns with the Browns’ completion percentage allowed on the season — roughly 14th in the NFL. The yards-per-attempt stat really shows exactly how poor the Browns have been over the middle of the field. The NFL’s worst defense in terms of yards per attempt allows 8.2, so the Browns allowing over a half yard more than that over the middle of the field is quite terrible.
Then we transition to Patrick Mahomes and how he fairs over the middle of the field. Over the course of the season, he has had a 66% completion percentage and 8.4 yards per attempt. Mahomes has specifically shined in the intermediate and deep areas over the middle of the field, posting top-three rankings to both areas of the field in the NFL. You can see through the clips from the Steelers’ playoff game that the Browns are very susceptible to a variety of route combinations over the middle.
The Steelers found a ton of success with mesh concepts underneath and running deeper, in-breaking routes behind them. The Browns linebacker group isn’t the most athletic or best coverage unit, and it often froze when it had something to see in front of it. It made it really easy to slip receivers in behind the second level and in front of the safeties who were playing very deep most of the game. Even when just working isolated comebacks and digs, the Steelers found plenty of space over the middle of the field, as the zone defenders in the area aren’t exceptional coverage players.
On the other side, the Chiefs happen to have one of the best middle-of-the-field receivers in the entire league, only he plays tight end.
Kelce may be the best receiver in the NFL against zone coverage just in terms from his ability to identify and exploit zone cov
— Matt Lane (@ChiefinCarolina) December 30, 2020
He has an uncanny feel for where the openings will be and consistently opens up into the best throwing lane for the QB. YAC threat still very evident pic.twitter.com/M2EeFnDcNF
Travis Kelce is an exceptional receiver at every level of the field, but he does much of his best work between the numbers. Cleveland has no obvious answer for him.
Let’s examine the Browns' recent matchups against quality tight ends.
Over this same five-game stretch that we pulled the middle-of-the-field passing numbers from, the tight ends facing the Browns have gone for 271 yards on 35 targets. It’s even more alarming when you consider those tight ends were Mark Andrews, Eric Ebron, Chris Herndon, Anthony Fisker and Even Engram.
Now they are facing Travis Kelce.
It doesn’t end at the tight end position, however, as the top slot wide receiver has also been highly involved in the passing game for opponents. Primary wide receivers against the Browns have gone for 416 yards on 47 targets. The primary slot wide receiver for the Chiefs is Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs’ two biggest strengths in the receiving game — aside from Mahomes, of course — align perfectly on some areas on the field, where the Browns defense has struggled the most.
We aren’t done yet.
Deep passing game
The only area of playing defense that the Browns may defend even worse than the middle of the field is the deep ball.
More prep for divisional round games. Places where the #Browns defense is very bad and you don't want to be bad against #ChiefsKingdom.
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) January 11, 2021
29th in DVOA on deep passes
29th in DVOA on third-down passes
28th in DVOA on passes to tight ends
Gonna take a lot of CHUNT to overcome that.
Getting Denzel Ward back for the game against the Chiefs should lead to an immediate improvement over last week, but he also played 12 games this season. The Browns simply don’t have the speed — outside of Ward — to keep up with faster wide receivers that can stretch the field vertically. Compounding the issue, their deep safeties are a collection of bigger-bodied, box-type guys hat shouldn’t be playing in deep zones.
A lack of a true centerfielder forces the Browns to play a ton of two-high coverages, which then open up the middle of the field both in the intermediate and also the deep areas. Even more discouraging for the Browns is how many different ways teams have been able to drive the football downfield on them throughout the past month.
Over that same span, Cleveland has been equally poor vs the deep ball.
— Matt Lane (@ChiefinCarolina) January 15, 2021
Teams have gone 8/24 (33%), 267 yards (11.13 YPT), and 4 TDs.
It hasn't mattered what type of cover (man, C2, C3, C0, etc), they have been torched deep. Bunch formations have ABUSED their man cov as well pic.twitter.com/2mO1yV5EsC
Whether in man or zone, teams are finding a way to beat the Browns vertically both down the middle of the field and outside the numbers. If you are looking for the “secret sauce,” just put your weapons in a bunch formation and watch the Browns’ defenders struggle to pass off coverage assignments.
The obvious caveat to the game planning around the deep ball is getting pass protection to hold up. The Browns have one of the lower pressure rates in the NFL this season and no longer have their second-best pass rusher in Olivier Vernon. The Chiefs will have to make sure they can account for Myles Garrett long enough to run some longer-developing concepts, but the Browns will give them every opportunity to get vertical at any point they want, too.
Sammy Watkins missing this game definitely may show up in the Chiefs' plan to attack the middle of the field, as he was their second-best receiver in that area. It will also allow more opportunities for Mecole Hardman to join Hill on the field and really stress the vertical coverage of the Browns’ roster with two of the fastest and best vertical guys in the NFL.
He also uses his speed better than anyone else in the NFL
— Matt Lane (@ChiefinCarolina) December 1, 2020
Best WRs work in threes.
Looks exactly like his usual Nine route release vs off cov. When he speed cuts outside, it looks like a text book Deep Out w/ the run off. Turns back upfield and gone. Never really loses speed pic.twitter.com/sSNs9psWfa
The bottom line
The Chiefs’ matchup with the Browns may or may not be a cakewalk once the game actually starts. In some ways, the matchup is heavily skewed toward the Chiefs and their offense putting up points at will, while their situational defense will really throw off the Browns’ offensive attack. In other ways, the Browns may be built in a way to shorten the game and force pristine execution — which has hurt the Chiefs in the past.
Either way, the Chiefs are one of the best teams at attacking over the middle of field and deep with their passing attack and the Browns defense is one of the worst in the NFL at both. Specifically, the Browns struggle to cover tight ends and primary slot wide receivers and the Chiefs just happen to boast the best duo at those two positions in Kelce and Hill.
As the Chiefs pick apart the Browns of the middle of the field, they should also find plenty of success utilizing Hill’s and Hardman’s speed to attack a slower, inferior deep coverage unit of the Browns.
The Chiefs should have no issues throwing the ball all around the yard against the Browns, and this could lead to an offensive explosion come Sunday.