From the FanPosts -- JD
I'd say there's a 55-60% chance.
Because 55-60% of the time, Martyball works every time.
I know, I know: look at Kansas City Chiefs history. Former head coach Marty Schottenheimer couldn't win the big one with Martyball -- a dominating defense combined with a ball-control offense.
But saying he didn't win the big one isn't the same thing as saying as he couldn't win the big one.
Honestly, the Chiefs just had a run of really bad luck. It wasn't especially bad under Schottenheimer, either; it was just the beginning of a string. Schottenheimer simply lost twice when his team had a 60% chance of winning.
Here's the way I see Super Bowl champions:
But other times, someone has to win in a down year -- like the Trent Dilfer (and Joe Flacco) Baltimore Ravens. The Eli Manning Giants. Rookie Big Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Chicago Bears.
When the NFL has been down overall, that's when the Chiefs have sucked. And when the Chiefs have been good, there have been a few other good teams that have made Kansas City's playoff games closer to 50/50.
And then the Chiefs have had a few of the hiccups -- like 2003, probably 1995 or maybe even 1997. If the Chiefs had made it past the first round in those years, they could have rolled through the rest of the postseason to win the Super Bowl.
But a good game plan, a little luck and a talented team makes most of the years to be close to a 50/50 coin flip -- and because of Survivorship Bias, we remember the Super Bowl winner as the best. Meanwhile, the Chiefs just had a run of losing eight coin flips in a row. While that isn't likely, it's not impossible. The Chiefs just got stuck with it.
This year, though, the Chiefs were simply the best team in the NFL. We proved it multiple ways: beating the Ravens and the Patriots, taking out the Tennessee Titans -- the hottest team in football -- and then beating the (statistically) best team in football: the San Francisco 49ers.
But the Chiefs were actually the best team.
The 49ers embraced the Martyball philosophy -- just like the Ravens, Titans and Vikings: take control of the game, don't make mistakes, exploit the other team's mistakes -- and if you get a lead, chew up the clock so the other team panics and makes more mistakes..
So no matter what, a Martyball team was going to win the NFC. The Green Bay Packers really weren't a good team. They just hid their weaknesses with Aaron Rodgers' ability. So Martyball worked in the NFC championship -- but it made the 49ers look more dominant than they really were.
So when they ran up against the actual best team in the NFL, they lost.
The 49ers have a blueprint to rack up a lot of regular-season wins, get a 55-60% chance of winning each home playoff game and return to the Super Bowl. They could make it back. But the next time, it could be the Vikings that ride modern Martyball to the Super Bowl -- with the same result.
We have to remember that injuries to key players are always a wild card in these kinds of calculations. But as long as the Chiefs keep enough talent together, I don't think any modern Martyball team can beat them in the postseason; it would take another dynamic team like the Seattle Seahawks to do it.
So yes... the Chiefs could face the 49ers again. But the Chiefs will still be more likely to win.