Chiefs-Patriots: Game and score predictions

All but two Arrowhead Pride contributors picked the Kansas City Chiefs to defeat the Baltimore Ravens last Monday night — and only one figured on a spread greater than six points; our aggregate prediction was a 36.6-33.8 Chiefs victory. AP readers were even more convinced the Chiefs might fall short, with 36% calling for a Baltimore victory. But 85% agreed the game would be close.

Let’s see how the staff — and our readers — view the Week 4 home game between the Chiefs and New England Patriots.

Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

The Patriots will rely on a ground game and a stout defense to make this competitive. In the past, we’ve seen teams have success adopting this method — only to abandon it once the Chiefs have found their offensive footing. For this tactic to work, the Patriots defense will need to have more relative success against Patrick Mahomes. After last Monday night, I can’t see it happening. Chiefs 41, Patriots 20

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

Regardless of victor, location or circumstances, recent games between these teams haven’t tended to be big blowouts. Even with Cam Newton under center, I was confident the Chiefs could handle the Patriots at home; I just didn’t think the oddsmakers’ seven-point spread was a safe bet. Now that Newton will be in isolation somewhere, things will be a bit different. Without Tom Brady, New England head coach Bill Belichick has demonstrated a Don Shula-like ability to adapt to his circumstances — and he certainly knows what to expect from presumed starting quarterback Brian Hoyer, who is in his sixth season under the head coach. Chiefs 30, Patriots 20

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

There’s always concern for a letdown game following a big win — but this game will be a letdown for a different reason. Now that Cam Newton will not play due to a positive COVID-19 test, Brian Hoyer will take the starting snaps. A game that seemed like a fun, close battle will now be a blow out in favor of the home team. Not only will the wacky travel schedule mess with New England, the Kansas City pass rush will prevent a soon-to-be 35-year old Hoyer from getting anything significant going — leading to easier opportunities for the offense to score on Belichick’s defense. Chiefs 34, Patriots 10.

Matt Lane (@ChiefinCarolina)

The Chiefs are coming off of a big win against the Ravens. Normally, I’d be a bit worried the entire team would be a little complacent — but they have a good matchup to prevent that. Through the years, Belichick and the Patriots have done enough against this Chiefs team to force them into being focused — and given the way the Patriots’ last couple weeks have gone, both teams are likely bring their A games. When the Chiefs have the ball it will be fun to see how they attack the Patriots’ advanced man coverage scheme and how the two units match up — but there will be a mismatch with the Patriots’ slower and thinner front seven. Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be a matchup problem in both the runniing and passing game. When the Patriots have the ball, it will be all about trying to stop the power running game from the Patriots’ stable of running backs. The Chiefs front seven will be heavily reliant on the Frank Clark and Chris Jones to win their mismatches, allowing the role players to fulfill their assignments. The Chiefs are the more talented team and should have the advantage in this game, putting together impressive back-to-back wins. Chiefs 34, Patriots 25

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

Even after losing their (really) old stars on the field, Belichick has the Patriots team looking competitive again. There’s a reason he’s the best coach in the business: he’s always finding ways to reinvent his squad and adapt. We always say that the best coach/quarterback combination wins more times than not. This might be the only game of the season that an argument could be made that the Chiefs’ opponent has a better coach — and nobody has a better quarterback. This should be a close game, but don’t ever bet against Patrick Mahomes to drag his team to victory when it counts. Watch for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to have (another) breakout performance. Chiefs 35, Patriots 21

Craig Stout (@barleyhop)

Against a power-run heavy Cam Newton offense, I thought the New England Patriots could do just enough for their defense to keep this a close affair. But now that Brian Hoyer will be in at quarterback, the game has changed drastically. The Chiefs no longer have to account for the quarterback in the running game — and Hoyer won’t be stressing the defense vertically. As long as the Chiefs bring down the Patriots receivers and running backs in the open field, this game could be over early. The Chiefs jump out to an early lead and the game script forces Hoyer to pass often — leading to some turnovers for the Chiefs’ defense. Chiefs 38, Patriots 13

Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson)

Patrick Mahomes was quick to turn the page on social media after the dismantling of the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. He will not let this team rest on what they’ve done — even in the midst of a twelve-game winning streak. Mahomes and company know the challenge ahead against a good Patriots team — even with Brian Hoyer starting. They won’t take them lightly. The offense does what it does, the defense puts together a great plan on short notice. Chiefs 31, Patriots 10

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

Through the first two weeks of the season, the Ravens looked to potentially have the best defense in the NFL. But the Chiefs offense made it look silly on Monday Night Football. Wink Martindale is an excellent defensive coordinator, but Bill Belichick could be the greatest of all time. Remarkably, teams have grown to expect unscouted looks from Belichick — forcing offenses to lock in on tendencies while also being prepared for anything. If embarrassing the Ravens defense was the E in H-O-R-S-E, doing the same to the Patriots is the confirmation shot. The Chiefs enter this game with six players at 10 targets or more. Who can Belichick “take away” with so many trusted and talented contributors? In Week 4, I think we see the Chiefs offense hit its confirmation, with the defense recording a few turnovers against replacement quarterback Brian Hoyer. Chiefs 41, Patriots 17

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

Craig Stout came closest to calling the Chiefs’ 34-20 defeat of the Ravens. His 34-24 pick carried eight points of error. John Dixon and Kent Swanson were next closest; their 34-31 and 31-28 predictions were 22 points off. Craig leapfrogged into first place in the standings. John — with his third-straight second-best prediction — remained in second, while Kent advanced to third.