Whatever happens on Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs will not be traveling to Baltimore next weekend.
On Saturday night, the NFL got a shock as the sixth-seeded Tennessee Titans defeated the Baltimore Ravens 28-12 at M&T Bank Stadium in Maryland, knocking the AFC’s first seed out of the playoffs — and opening the way for the AFC Championship to be played in Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium.
After winning 12 straight games — and being favored by 9.5 points in their Divisional round matchup against the Titans — the odds-on Super Bowl favorites are done for the season. The Titans now go on the road to face the winner of Sunday’s game between the Chiefs and Houston Texans at Arrowhead.
Betting markets for the Houston-Kansas City game favor the Chiefs by 9.5 points. FiveThirtyEight.com’s traditional Elo prediction model gives the Chiefs an 8.5 point advantage, which translates to about a three-in-four chance to win.
But since the Ravens were the largest obstacle standing in the way of the Chiefs, that Elo model now gives the Chiefs a 50% chance to advance to the Super Bowl — and a 29% chance to win it.
Earlier on Saturday, the NFC’s San Francisco 49ers defeated the Minnesota Vikings 27-10. The first-seeded 49ers move on to the NFC Championship to play the winner of Sunday night’s final Divisional round game between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau Field in Wisconsin.
Both the AFC and NFC Championship games will be played on Sunday, January 19. The AFC title game — which will be carried by CBS — will begin at 2:05 p.m. Arrowhead Time. The NFC matchup will follow on FOX at 5:40 p.m.