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Arrowheadlines: MVPat can defy history and be even better in 2019

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Chiefs headlines for Thursday, August 14

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Divisional Round - Indianapolis Colts v Kansas City Chiefs Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

The latest

History Says Patrick Mahomes Should Regress in 2019. History Has Never Seen Anyone Like Patrick Mahomes | The Ringer

It’s incredible to realize that Mahomes’s only reasonable age-appropriate comparison is a seven-time All-Pro and first-ballot Hall of Famer. However, it’s also worth noting that Marino’s records standing for 20-plus years reveals that he never surpassed his own prolific age-23 performance. After 1984, Marino threw at least 20 interceptions in four of the next five seasons; after averaging 9.0 yards per attempt in ’84, he would never even crack 8.2. Marino did lead the league in passing yardage and touchdowns on several occasions, but never won MVP nor made the Super Bowl again.

There seem to be two truths about what’s next for Mahomes, and they cannot coexist. Mahomes is only 23, and thus is expected to get better. But few QBs coming off all-time great seasons have delivered a superior season for an encore. The bell curve of a typical NFL starting quarterback’s career indicates that the rise of Mahomes will continue; the history of NFL quarterbacks suggests that Mahomes can’t ascend much higher.

7 young quarterbacks who could threaten the NFL’s passing records one day | SB Nation

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes, 17 games: 5,381 yards, 50 touchdowns

Mahomes, per 16-game averages extrapolated over 15 years: 75,967 yards, 706 touchdowns

This list has to start with Mahomes.

Mahomes only has one season under his belt as a starter for the Kansas City Chiefs, but he might already be the best quarterback in the NFL. In 2018, he threw for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on his way to winning the MVP.

It’s highly unlikely that he’ll have that type of production every season — but let’s pretend he will for a second. At that rate, it would take him about 14 more seasons to break the current all-time record for passing yards. He would only need 11 more years to break the touchdown record, as it stands now. He won’t turn 24 until September, so it’s definitely possible that he could play at least that long.

If Mahomes were able to keep up that pace for 15 seasons and then retire, he would finish his career with 75,967 yards, 706 touchdowns (the record is 539!), and just 184 interceptions. Not bad!

David Montgomery, Tony Pollard among 2019 NFL rookie risers | NFL.com

3) Juan Thornhill, S, Kansas City Chiefs

Draft position: Round 2, No. 63 overall, out of Virginia.

Time spent at cornerback and safety in college helped prepare Thornhill to make a quick impact in Kansas City, where his range and propensity for forcing turnovers in practice have made him a likely candidate to beat out incumbent Daniel Sorensen for a starting safety spot opposite Tyrann Mathieu. A former high school quarterback, Thornhill understands the game very well -- you don’t pick off 13 passes, as Thornhill did at Virginia, by accident -- and he’s going to make a lot of tackles. If Thornhill does win a starting gig, he’d be in position to accomplish something relatively rare under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo; only James Laurinaitis (in 2009, with the St. Louis Rams), Landon Collins (in 2015, with the Giants) and Dalvin Tomlinson (in 2017, with the Giants) have started 16 games as rookies on Spagnuolo-coached defences.

Here’s why we should remember the Chiefs’ AFC Championship loss to Brady’s Patriots | Kansas City Star

A case can be made that the Chiefs-Patriots game of Jan. 20, 2019 was the biggest sporting event in Kansas City’s history. For a city that won’t land a Super Bowl, an NFL semifinal is as nationally substantial as it gets. Some 54 million people tuned in, the second-most viewers to the Super Bowl in 2019 for a sports TV audience.

A game of that stature no matter the outcome deserves a full accounting, more than collection of head-shaking snapshots, like Dee Ford lining up offsides or the Chiefs’ offense gaining no traction in the first half.

The Chiefs had broken a playoff curse a week earlier with a convincing victory over the Colts, and had their best chance yet to claim the trophy named for their founder.

Five Things We Learned from Chiefs’ Training Camp on Wednesday | The Mothership

The Chiefs are transitioning to a 4-3 base scheme on defense this season after featuring a 3-4 scheme through the last six years, providing Speaks with an opportunity to play along the defensive line rather than standing up as an outside linebacker.

That change has been a focus of his throughout camp, and with the Chiefs’ time in St. Joseph nearly complete, Speaks’ feels good about what he’s been able to accomplish.

“I feel like I’ve done what I came up here to do,” Speaks said. “I had a rough patch in the beginning, but finally being able to get in and make those plays as we’ve seen lately has been the most fun part of being up here.”

Steelers vs. Chiefs: Has Kansas City improved since last year? | Steel Curtain

Defense:

Even though they lost Justin Houston and Dee Ford this offseason, the Chiefs pass rush should be very good in 2019. The combination of Frank Clark, Chris Jones, and Alex Okafor should be able to get to the quarterback consistently this year.

The secondary also has a completely new look to it with Tyrann Mathieu and Bashaud Breeland taking over. Eric Berry played just 3 games since 2016, and was no longer part of the picture. The Chiefs also lost Steven Nelson to the Steelers this offseason

It will be interesting to see how these changes unfold for the Chiefs in 2019. The Steelers and the Chiefs stand to be two of the better teams in the AFC North again this season. Though the winner of the preseason contest doesn’t matter, we could be looking at a potential playoff matchup this January.

NFL Power Rankings 2019: Latest Team Standings Ahead of Preseason Week 2 | Bleacher Report

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Not only is the Chiefs’ offense still elite, but it could get even better this season. Reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes has a few new weapons, including rookie wide receiver Mecole Hardman, who had two receptions for 31 yards and a touchdown in the preseason opener against the Bengals.

The Biggest Games of the Texans 2019 Season | Battle Red Blog (Houston Texans SB Nation site)

#2 Week Six v. Kansas City

I’m just excited to see Deshaun Watson v. Patrick Mahomes and everything that comes along with it. It’s also going to be FUN to see Houston go down and early and watch Watson try to scurry and come back with the offense blown wide open. Plus, J.J. Watt smashing Eric Fisher is something I’ll always love to see, and Will Fuller scorching Tyrann Mathieu deep will allow my bones to rest easy one day.

Hawkeyes in the NFL: Fant and Hockenson Drawing Praise | Black Heart Gold Pants (Iowa Hawkeyes SB Nation site)

A thumb injury could foil C.J. Beathard’s already uphill climb to win backup quarterback duties in San Francisco. Beathard suffered the injury in Saturday’s win over Dallas after completing 13 of 17 passes for 141 yards with a touchdown and an interception. George Kittle didn’t play and missed his first practice Tuesday due to calf tightness.

Teammate Richard Sherman said Greg Mabin is having a “phenomenal” camp, because that’s what Richard Sherman does. The Athletic’s Matt Barrows doesn’t expect teammate Ross Reynolds to make the cut.

Linebacker Ben Niemann drew praise in Arrowhead Pride’s Craig Stout’s film study for his execution in last week’s contest against Cincinnati:

Fantasy Football: 17 Rookies Who Could Make an Impact in 2019 | SI.com

Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 165)

Before Tyreek Hill’s potential suspension, Hardman was going in Rounds 11-13. Now with Hill back, Fantasy owners are forgetting about him. I would advise against that as Hardman has blazing speed and opposing defenses are not going to be able to cover Hill, Hardman, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and Damien Williams at the same time. Hardman reminds me of Taylor Gabriel—not a consistent threat each week, but certainly a guy who can make one or two big plays per game.

Around the league

No substantive talks yet between Tony Romo, CBS | Yahoo Sports

Andrew Marchand of the New York Post reports that Romo and his current employer, CBS, have had “no substantive talks” on a new contract. Romo is signed through the 2019 season.

Romo wouldn’t talk about the situation; “I Bill Belichick contract talk,” Romo told Marchand.

CBS Sports Chairman Sean McManus told Marchand that McManus expected Romo to remain at CBS “for a long time.” Absent a new contract in the next five months, however, Romo will become a broadcasting free agent.

Per Marchand, Romo currently earns in the “low-$3-million range.” Romo is believed to be looking for more than $8 million per year.

Jerry: New deals must keep young core together | ESPN

Clearly, Jones would like to get a deal done with at least one of the trio.

”The answer is yes, but I’ll repeat it: Would it be better if we can get one of the players done -- and I’m not being trite -- then to not have any done of the ones you’re talking about? The answer is yes,” Jones said. “What may surprise you is we may come up with one that you haven’t been asking about that might make a point in what I’m trying to make.”

Mayfield: People want Browns to lose because of hype | NFL.com

“You’ve got to believe in it and take it one week at a time. Because I wouldn’t say that everybody wants to beat us,” he said. “I think in the media and everything that comes with the hype around our team right now, people want to see us lose, just because the hype is so real. But we’ve got to go out there and take it one week at a time. We’re trying to win every week.”

Mayfield added: “It went from having excitement over Bud Light coolers being opened to now people waiting to see us lose so they can say, ‘Oh, they got too hyped up.’ That’s why you’ve got to have an even-keel mindset when it comes to that stuff.’’

In case you missed it at Arrowhead Pride

Chiefs stock report: Kpassagnon and Nnadi UP; O’Daniel and Fuller DOWN

Stock UP:

Tanoh Kpassagnon: He’s getting starter reps with some guys out, but got a sack and some pressure. He looks like a giant on the field — more Allen Bailey than Dee Ford, if you will. Both he and Breeland Speaks might be factors inside more than outside. We’re well aware of his limitations, but it appears that the team is giving him every opportunity to carve out a role.

Derrick Nnadi: He’s attacking on the inside and appears to be improving upon his solid rookie season. The gem of the 2018 draft class will be a staple in the Chiefs new defensive front.

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