As we prepare for training camp and the subsequent roster cut downs that will follow, I thought it would be interesting to look back at the Andy Reid teams of the past, and see if they could help us make predictions for this year. It was also interesting to see how the numbers in various position groups have fluctuated over the years, and for what reasons. This year, the biggest change will be moving from a 3-4 to a 4-3. It remains to be seen how exactly that will affect the roster. Also, Andy Reid has shown a knack for changing offensive personnel based on the schemes he wants to run. Could that be the case again this year?
First, let's take a look at past data:
2013
|
QB 3 |
DL 7 |
P 1 |
|
RB 3 |
LB 9 |
K 1 |
|
WR 6 |
CB 4* |
LS 1 |
|
TE 3 |
S 6 |
|
|
FB 1 |
|
|
|
OL 8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total: 24 |
Total: 26 |
Total: 3 |
Notes: Only four corners
2014
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2014/8/30/6087591/kansas-city-chiefs-first-53-man-roster-depth-chart
|
QB 3 |
DL 6* |
P 1 |
|
RB 5* (3) |
LB 9 |
K 1 |
|
WR 5* (7) |
CB 5 |
LS 1 |
|
TE 3 |
S 4 |
|
|
FB 1 |
|
|
|
OL 9* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total: 26 |
Total: 24 |
Total: 3 |
Notes: Five running backs is deceiving due to DAT being counted and having an extra due to suspensions at other positions, Dwayne Bowe IR/Suspended, Donald Stephenson Suspended, Tyler Bray IR, Catapano NFI
2015
|
QB 3 |
DL 6 |
P 1 |
|
RB 3 |
LB 10 |
K 1 |
|
WR 6 |
CB 5 |
LS 1 |
|
TE 3 |
S 5 |
|
|
FB 1 |
|
|
|
OL 8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total: 24 |
Total: 26 |
Total: 3 |
Notes: N/A
2016
|
QB 3 |
DL 6 |
P 1 |
|
RB 4 |
LB 9 |
K 1 |
|
WR 6 |
CB 6 |
LS 1 |
|
TE 4 |
S 4 |
|
|
FB 1 |
|
|
|
OL 8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total: 26 |
Total: 24 |
Total: 3 |
Notes:
2017
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/9/2/16246106/kansas-city-chiefs-full-53-man-roster-revealed
|
QB 3 |
DL 7 |
P 1 |
|
RB 3 |
LB 9 |
K 1 |
|
WR 6 |
CB 6 |
LS 1 |
|
TE 3 |
S 4 |
|
|
FB 1 |
|
|
|
OL 9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total: 25 |
Total: 25 |
Total: 3 |
Notes:
2018
|
QB 2 |
DL 6 |
P 1 |
|
RB 4 |
LB 9 |
K 1 |
|
WR 6 |
CB 5 |
LS 1 |
|
TE 2 |
S 5 |
|
|
FB 1 |
|
|
|
OL 10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total: 25 |
Total: 25 |
Total: 3 |
Notes:
Before starting, I would just like to point out how awesome it is to see how much the Chiefs have continued to improve over these years. Comparing the skill level of our 2019 to those earlier years is crazy.
Overall numbers: As you can see, the last two years the Chiefs have split with exactly 25 players on offense and 25 on defense. The four years prior to that they had 2 years where offense was a plus one, and two years where defense was a plus one. I'd say you can take it to the bank that there won't be more than a 1 player difference between the two squads, and most likely each will get 25 given recent history.
Offense
Quarterback: Projection (2)
2018 was the first year the Chiefs went to two quarterbacks, and I loved the move. It gives them another roster spot on the offense. Let's face it, if you are down to your third quarterback, your season hopes are over anyways.
Running back: Projection (4)
Three was the standard for a while, but a few factors lead me to believe they will stay with four this year. First, they have no clear cut number one. Williams is good, but not elite. Second, that is what they did in 2018. Third, given how injury prone the position is, more and more teams seem to be keeping more running backs. Finally, they have a deep crop of them on the roster this year who would justify a spot.
Wide Receiver: Projection (7)
Number-wise, this has been one of the most stable position groups over the years at six. 2014 may be the only anomaly, but not really given Dwayne Bowe's suspended status. I'm going out on a limb here and projecting the Chiefs break tradition and go with seven. The two reasons are the uncertainty around Tyreek, and the deep crop they have at camp, including an UFA they paid $100k for. Oh, and Patrick Mahomes is our QB.
Tight End: (3)
After Kelce, the Chiefs have been churning the depth chart to find a respectable backup. They have brought in a lot of guys and they seem to like several of them. Because of that, I don't think they keep just one.
Fullback: (1)
Sausage. Nothing more needs to be said.
Offensive Line: (8)
From 2013 to 2016, the Chiefs didn't seem to have an issue running with only 8 offensive linemen. They have upped that to nine and then ten in 2018. It's hard to say if talent, or injury concerns, or both drove that increase. After the starting five of Fisher, Wylie, Rieter, LDT, Schwartz, I see the Chiefs keeping one swing tackle backup and two interior backups. I just don't think who they have after the top eight are good enough to take a roster spot from someone else.
Defense
Defensive Line (9)
This is the big unknown due to the scheme change. I think the most important thing to look at is how many people the Chiefs dedicated to the front seven in years past, and that was about even at 15 or 16. Given what I'm projecting with the linebackers below, I believe the Chiefs roll with a two deep look here with a plus one, who I think will be Kpass. The big question being do they keep an extra LB or extra DL?
Linebacker (6)
I think they also go two deep here, with two SAMs, two Mikes, and two Wills.
Corner (6)
The team has been very consistent at keeping ten DB's each year. This year I think the decision comes down to either Sorenson or a young CB. Given the cap savings, I think the young CB wins out. Also, the role Sorenson sometimes filled as a hybrid box LB or a coverage guy has now been taken by some of the new additions the Chiefs have made over the past two seasons.
Safety (4)
See above.
Final Numbers:
|
QB 2 |
DL 9 |
P 1 |
|
RB 4 |
LB 6 |
K 1 |
|
WR 7 |
CB 6 |
LS 1 |
|
TE 3 |
S 4 |
|
|
FB 1 |
|
|
|
OL 8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total: 25 |
Total: 25 |
Total: 3 |
I hope you enjoyed the post. The next fun exercise will be putting names to the numbers.
