FanPost

Two Magic Numbers: 11 and 30

Despite our optimism, the Chiefs are not yet a dynasty. However, with the way the 2018 season went, and with the display of talent Pat Mahommes has put on, it’s fair to believe that if he can stay reasonably healthy, making the playoffs on an annual basis should be in the cards for the next several years.

If you want to make the playoffs, there’s one number that each team should be looking to achieve: 11 wins.

If your team gets 11 wins, you have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. Only 2 teams have ever missed the playoffs when they went 11-5 during a season. The 1985 Denver Broncos and the 2008 New England Patriots.

At 10 wins, your odds are still a strong 88%. At 9 wins, it’s 51% - you’re a flip of the coin. So getting to 10 is important, but the goal should always be 11 wins, which makes you a near-lock.

For the Chiefs defense, if we want 11 wins, then there’s a different, but still very important number that they need to pay attention to in every single game.

Hold Every Opponent to Fewer Than 30 Points

That’s it. And that sounds kind of stupid. Shouldn’t it be more complex than that? For most teams, yes. But not for the PMII-led Chiefs offense. And here’s why…

  • In 2018, Chiefs’ opponents averaged 26.3 points per game against the Chiefs, with 5 teams scoring 30+ on us
  • The Chiefs offense averaged 35.3 points per game, scoring more than 30 points in 12 out of 16 games
  • The games in which the Chiefs didn’t score 30+ consisted of scores of 26, 27, 27, and 28
  • The Chiefs only lost once when holding an opponent to less than 30 points (28-29 loss to the Chargers)
  • Teams that scored less than 30 points beat the Chiefs 9% of the time
  • Teams that scored more than 30 points beat the Chiefs 60% of the time

I think most APers feel like our defense has made marked improvements this offseason, but that’s just fan-belief until the season starts. However, it would be difficult to be much more porous than the 2018 defense was. Perhaps Mahommes and company will fall back to earth in 2019, but even if Tyreek is cut or suspended for the entire year, I have a hard time believing that will limit Mahommes all that much. Even if it’s not 50 TDs and 5,000 yards, I have a hard time seeing the Chiefs offense averaging less than 30 points per game, when they averaged 35.3 points per game last year.

It’s all about getting to the playoffs and making the run for the Lombardi trophy, which seemed so close in 2018. So in 2019, I want to get those 11 wins as early in the season as possible. Each time the Chiefs hit the field, the only thing I care about is the defense keeping opponents under 30. That’s not much to ask, Spags. Do that, and these Chiefs can be a perennial contender.


This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.