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NFL Mock Draft: if the Chiefs trade down, out of the first round

There is always the off chance the Chiefs opt to move their first-round pick.

NCAA Football: Ohio State at Penn State Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports

We get a lot of draft scenario questions thrown at us when we ask for questions on the AP Laboratory. This week we decided to discuss a few of them we’ve seen frequently and the ramifications of making the move. It’s a good exercise for all of us to step out of the usual speculation and explore scenarios that aren’t as top of mind.

We’ll explore two other scenarios this week, but we start with this:

What if the Chiefs trade out of the first round?

We get asked this question a lot.

The discussion organically always shifts toward trading up in the draft because of general manager Brett Veach’s aggressive tendencies, but what if the board falls terribly for them and they can’t afford to move up? What if they don’t like the pool of players available at 29 and think they can find value by moving a few spots back?

Fair value for pick 29 (actually slightly unfavorable to the Chiefs, per the modern trade chart) aligns with San Francisco’s capital at 36 and 104. Trading back seven spots gives the Chiefs an early fourth-round pick. The Chiefs could spread value across five picks in the top 105 and give themselves an additional chance to get a solid contributor. It also gives them flexibility to move up in the second or third round.

Here’s who we took, keeping all five of those selections on this week’s episode of the AP Laboratory.

36. CB Amani Oruwariye, Penn State

The Chiefs miss on the first wave of cornerbacks and select a long, athletic defensive back with ball skills.

61. WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Stanford

Another weapon for Patrick Mahomes who wins in contested catch situations. The Chiefs added Kelvin Benjamin late as a big body receiver and Arcega-Whiteside has some inside-outside ability and is large target for the reigning MVP.

63. LB Mack Wilson, Alabama

With an extra top-105 selection, the Chiefs have the ability to swing for a linebacker who has fallen down boards through the process. Wilson could turn out to be good value with some development and flexibility and depth at a pain point for the defense last year.

92. EDGE Joe Jackson, Miami

If you’re waiting this long to address the defensive end position, Jackson is the kind of guy you can expect out of the first two rounds. He fits the prototype of edge players that Steve Spagnuolo has historically coveted.

104. S Marquise Blair, Utah

The extra selection gives the Chiefs depth and solid value at the safety position. Blair is flying under the radar, but boasts a good athletic profile and plays with great energy.

KC Draft Guide

I wrote about draft trade scenarios and their value in the first-ever edition of the KC Draft Guide launched this week! You can purchase it for only $9.99!

We have over 225 prospect write-ups on prospects (including the players we discussed in this article), including breakdowns of all of these players, with specifics about how prospects fit the Chiefs. There are more than 300 grades on players, mock drafts, positional rankings and features — all specific to the Chiefs. Grab your copy by clicking here!

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