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Chiefs vs. Bears: game and score predictions

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Let’s see what the Arrowhead Pride Staff — and our readers — think about the Week 16 game.

Trinidad & Tobago v Guatemala: Group C - 2015 CONCACAF Gold Cup Photo by Matthew Ashton - AMA/Getty Images

Before the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Denver Broncos 23-3 in Week 15, the Arrowhead Pride staff was united in their belief that the Chiefs would win — but hardly anyone expected a 20-point blowout. AP readers were just as confident of a win — 93% figured the Chiefs would notch a victory — but 43% thought the team would roll over the Broncos.

Let’s see how the staff and readers feel about the season’s final road game against the Chicago Bears.


Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

Chicago fans, this is what you could have had! Mahomes 38, Trubisky 10

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

The Bears have a not-very-good offense and a really good defense. At 7-7, they’re out of the playoffs. The Chiefs should be able to take care of their business. It’s still worrisome, though, because Bears head coach Matt Nagy knows Andy Reid very well. Until he left for Chicago before last season, he’d been at Reid’s side since before he came to Kansas City — and Sunday night will be the first time Nagy has coached against his mentor in a game that matters. So the Chiefs need to be prepared for anything — and assume that sometimes, the Bears will see them coming. Chiefs 20, Bears 6.

Ethan Douglas (@ChiefsAnalytics)

The first quarterback drafted from the 2017 class is significantly worse than the second quarterback drafted from the 2017 class. Thankfully for Chiefs fans, they got the second quarterback. Chiefs 27, Bears 10

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

While this game would be more exciting if the Bears hadn’t been eliminated from the playoffs, I do think it could be fun for awhile. Bears coach Matt Nagy has no reason not to pull out all the stops and dive deep into the playbook. That being said, the Chiefs defense is playing too well right now. This late in the season, it really does come down to who wants it more, and the Chiefs are the better team and will have more energy. A defensive touchdown in the second half pulls them away. Chiefs 28, Bears 10

Matt Lane (@ChiefinCarolina)

The Bears aren’t playing for anything in this game after being eliminated from the playoffs. With injuries stacking up on the strength of their team with both starting inside linebackers and now Akiem Hicks out, they will be outmanned and may not have the motivation to battle through. The Chiefs are still fighting for playoff seeding and trying to keep the train rolling. The Bears secondary plays a lot of man coverage and has talented players, so this should be a good test for the Chiefs offense against this style of defense. Chiefs 27, Bears 13

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

The Chiefs are rolling, Mahomes is better than Trubisky, Reid is better than Nagy, and the Chiefs might actually have the better defense now, as crazy as that sounds to say out loud. Chiefs 35, Bears 20

Craig Stout (@barleyhop)

The Bears have nothing to play for and a stagnant offense. Trubisky has generally been poor on the year, and while the Bears do have some weapons, his inability to get them the ball regularly has been Chicago’s downfall. The Bears defense will slow down the Chiefs offense with a multitude of impact defenders, but Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill will be too much to keep in check. Chiefs continue their surge toward playoff matchups in a big win. Chiefs 24, Bears 6

Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson)

This one feels more trap game-ish than last week against the Broncos does. The Bears have nothing to lose and need to find out what they have in Mitchell Trubisky (if they don’t already know). Matt Nagy will want this one and could pull out all the stops. The Bears jump out to an early 7-0 lead, but it’s all Chiefs from there. A late score makes it close. Chiefs 27, Bears 20

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

The Chiefs are a far superior team than the Bears, and this game will reflect that. The defense picks Mitch Trubisky off twice and Patrick Mahomes continues to play like the player we saw last year. Chiefs 31, Bears 7

Poll

Which team wins the Chiefs-Bears game?

This poll is closed

  • 62%
    Chiefs in a blowout
    (991 votes)
  • 33%
    Chiefs in a close game
    (533 votes)
  • 3%
    Bears in a close game
    (51 votes)
  • 0%
    Bears in a blowout
    (14 votes)
1589 votes total Vote Now

2019 Standings

Rnk LW Staffer W L Pct Error
1 1 Ron Kopp 11 3 0.7857 26.3
2 2 Craig Stout 11 3 0.7857 29.4
3 3 Tom Childs 11 3 0.7857 33.9
4 4 Matt Stagner 11 3 0.7857 34.6
5 6 Matt Lane 10 4 0.7143 25.1
6 7 Robert Rimpson 10 4 0.7143 26.3
7 5 John Dixon 10 4 0.7143 27.0
8 8 Pete Sweeney 10 4 0.7143 32.7
9 9 Ethan Douglas 9 5 0.6429 30.0
10 10 Kent Swanson 8 6 0.5714 31.9

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

As a group, Arrowhead Pride contributors called for a 30.7-18.9 victory — an 11.8 spread. The staff clearly expected more scoring from both teams, and underestimated the difference between them. With 31.8 points of error, it wasn’t in the Hall of Fame of composite predictions.

No individual prediction was covered in glory, either. Matt Lane came the closest. His 27-13 guess had 20 points of error and moved him up a spot in the standings. Ethan Douglas missed by 22 points with his 27-14 prediction. Pete Sweeney almost got the point spread right with a 42-21 call, but clearly thought there would be much more scoring.