FanPost

Feast or Famine: Why is the Chiefs’ offense struggling to find rhythm?

In the past three weeks, any outsider watching the Chiefs would assume that the team wins games based on its opportunistic defense. And recently, the defense is playing with something that the offense has lacked: cohesion. In short, a recent trend is that the Chiefs’ defense has a sum that is much greater than its parts, and the Chiefs’ offense has a sum that is much less than its many All-Pro weapons.

Particularly, the Chiefs offense has been struggling in three main areas compared to last year: red zone touchdown rate, points off turnovers, and closing out games when ahead in the second half.

There have been many reasons suggested for the struggles of the offense. Here are five common reasons suggested by analysts:

Patrick Mahomes has never been fully healthy: Mahomes is what really made the Chiefs offense as great as it was last year. He created sensational play after sensational play and hid a lot of deficiencies with his greatness. This year, he had a lingering ankle injury that he sustained against the Jaguars, and then worsened against the Colts. He then dislocated his kneecap against the Broncos. Most recently, he bruised his hand by landing awkwardly after a tackle against the Patriots. Understandably, these injuries have slowed his ability to make sensational plays, and thus slowed down the offense.

The Chiefs lack any running attack: The Chiefs offense is unable to simply line up and run the ball at opponents, which greatly affects their ability to drain clock and play with a lead. Not only are running plays rarely called, play-action plays are much less effective due to limited running attempts. Perhaps injuries to running backs have played a role in this, and it is very possible having Damien Williams back for the playoffs will provide a spark to the running game.

Offensive line play has been poor: Patrick Mahomes has faced much more pressure on his dropbacks this season, and thus it has been harder to create plays deep down the field. Getting hit has also affected some of his throws, and frequent pressure has caused him to bail out of some clean pockets because he expects rushers to get home.

Injuries: This one is fairly self-explanatory. Almost every offensive player has dealt with some form of injury this season, and the offense has not had time to gel.

Discipline: The Chiefs have often found themselves in long down and distances due to offensive penalties. No offense is better built to overcome these penalties; however, they have ended many drives prematurely. False starts, holding, and offensive pass interference calls are some of the main issues. A zero-penalty performance is not to be expected every single week, but good teams limit their penalties, and the Chiefs have failed to do the same.

Now, here are two unique reasons I came across in film study:

Mid-range passing plays are disappearing: The Chiefs’ offense last year was so tough to defend because it made opponents defend the entire field. This season, the offense has separated into two distinct groups: long route combinations and short route combinations. Rates of RPO passing concepts have gone down, and the Chiefs rarely run plays designed to attack the area 5-to-15 yards down the field. The Chiefs no longer move the chains at an elite level. They run fewer slant and curl routes that emphasize yards after the catch. When ahead in games, Andy Reid turns to a "conservative" game script. Recently, those conservative play calls have resulted in minimal gains on first and second down, and then a deep passing concept on third down. When ahead in games, the Chiefs should turn to high percentage passes that will continue to move the chains. A five-yard curl to Kelce, followed by a seven-yard out to Hill, followed by an RPO zone slant lookie to Watkins. These unassuming routes actually form the backbone of successful offense and help to move the chains. More rhythm passing needs to find its way back into the Chiefs’ playcalling.

The pass-commit: Another factor that is affecting the rhythm of the Chiefs’ offense is rather simple. The Chiefs’ opponents expect the Chiefs to pass on almost every down. Unless the Chiefs roll out 12 personnel (I HB, 2 TE), opposing teams often play nickel or dime defenses. There is no respect given to the Chiefs’ ability to run the ball. Last season, if the Chiefs had an advantage in numbers in the box, Mahomes would often audible to a run and allow Hunt or Damien Williams to punish the defense. This year, the Chiefs air out the football so much that their run game doesn’t earn the trust of the opposing defenses. This means that pass rushers are pinning their ears back on almost every down, and the defense feels comfortable running pass rush stunts. Safeties are focused on pass coverage instead of run support, and linebackers do not bite on play-action. Opponents are able to commit to stopping the pass on almost every down. The Chiefs have an extremely talented offense but are perhaps not talented enough to overcome the opponent knowing what is coming the majority of the time.

The relative struggles of the Chiefs’ offense are probably the result of a culmination of many of these reasons. What do you think is the biggest thing the Chiefs need to do to get the offense back on track? Let me know in the comments.

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This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.