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Chiefs vs. Raiders: Game and score predictions

The AFC West is on the line as the Chiefs host the Raiders. Let’s see what everybody thinks about the game

NFL: DEC 30 Raiders at Chiefs Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Going into the Monday Night Football game at Estadio Azteca, Arrowhead Pride contributors were almost united in their belief the Chiefs would win a fairly close game. Our readers had pretty much the same view. 82% believed the Chiefs would win, and two-thirds thought the game would be close.

Let’s see what the AP staff — and our readers — think about the Week 13 game against the Oakland Raiders at Arrowhead.

Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

Rightly, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense has been receiving all of the plaudits over the last month. Just like the Chiefs last year, they now have the fear factor. Something Mahomes and company have apparently lost. But with this team finally getting healthy and playing a Raiders defensive unit, which is pure garbage, Andy Reid’s squad will finally get back to the offensive heights set last year. It’s time to remind everyone how good this Chiefs team is. Chiefs 45, Raiders 17

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

This game ought to be a blowout for the Chiefs. But remember: I’m the guy who is always worried about division games — and Jon Gruden appears to be the only coach in this matchup who continues to stoke the flames of the Chiefs-Raiders rivalry that fans of both teams still feel. Just the same, the Chiefs offense ought to put up some big numbers for the hometown crowd. I’m just not convinced that with their last real chance at the playoffs on the line, the Raiders won’t find some way to score a bunch of their own. Chiefs 33, Raiders 23

Ethan Douglas (@ChiefsAnalytics)

This is the week that the connotation behind the “no punt game” moniker changes forever. After a week of resting and reading up on win probability and fourth-down decision making, coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs are going to come out pedal to the metal on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes is going to remind everyone why his face is plastered on every billboard and every third commercial in the KC Metro area, while the defense will have their best performance since they stonewalled the Broncos at Mile High. The Raiders are going to wish they were back to playing the Jets. Chiefs 42, Raiders 14

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

With no more major injuries, feeling fresh after a bye week, it’s time for the Chiefs to whoop somebody. Who better than the Raiders? KC hasn’t lost a home game to the Raiders in the Andy Reid era. Oakland got exposed in New York last week, and I don’t think that should be undersold. I could point out a lot of stats to back my opinion up, but there’s only one fact that truly matters: IT’LL BE TOO COLD FOR DEREK CARR (shoutout to HisDirkness). Chiefs defense forces a few turnovers, and the offense pulls away convincingly. Chiefs 41, Raiders 17

Matt Lane (@ChiefinCarolina)

The Chiefs coming fresh off the bye week feeling like they need to make a big splash to get back on track get a gift with the Oakland Raiders. When the Chiefs have the ball, they should attack the Raiders’ injury-riddled secondary and linebacker group up the middle of the field for big plays. When the Raiders have the ball, continue to bring the pressure and make Derek Carr feel uncomfortable. The Chiefs come out firing and get huge games from Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce putting themselves back in top-of-the-AFC contention. Chiefs: 34, Raiders 17

Robert Rimpson (@RRimpsanity)

This game ought to put to rest any remaining thought of the Raiders winning the AFC West. The Chiefs defense and offense are both as healthy as they’ll ever be this season, the Raiders have little momentum after losing big to a so-so New York Jets team and Andy Reid is phenomenal after the bye week. The score won’t be as bad as it could be, but the Chiefs will win comfortably. Chiefs 30, Raiders 20

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

If the Chiefs are going to put it all together for a Super Bowl run... it’s time. It’s time for the offense to get back on track. With Mahomes and a relatively healthy group, there are no excuses for not executing. It’s time for the defense to play with the aggression that lets them attack QBs, the discipline that allows them to contain the run and the ability to close out games. We’ve seen it at times, but not consistently. The Raiders are just the type of team the Chiefs should bury at Arrowhead coming out of the bye week. This is still a Super Bowl team and Mahomes is still the MVP. It’s time to put it together and roll. Chiefs 55, Raiders 24

Craig Stout (@barleyhop)

Derek Carr stinks in Arrowhead. He’s worse in the cold. Andy Reid is coming off a bye. Frank Clark is healthy and ready to dominate. Don’t overthink this. Chiefs 31, Raiders 13

Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson)

It will have been 49 days between Patrick Lavon Mahomes appearances at Arrowhead. The wait is going to be worth it. I expect a great performance from the offense after a stinker in Mexico City. They survived the field at Estadio Azteca and were afforded an extra week to prepare. I’m no longer allowed to call it a blowout. I’m predicting a close one. Chiefs 40, Raiders 20

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

I think the Raiders come out strong after being embarrassed by the New York Jets last week. The Raiders keep it a game, but Patrick Mahomes at 100% proves too much as Kansas City wins at home in a one-score game. Chiefs 31, Raiders 24


Which team wins the Chiefs-Raiders game?

This poll is closed

  • 54%
    Chiefs in a blowout
    (333 votes)
  • 37%
    Chiefs in a close game
    (230 votes)
  • 7%
    Raiders in a close game
    (44 votes)
  • 1%
    Raiders in a blowout
    (7 votes)
614 votes total Vote Now

2019 Standings

Rnk LW Staffer W L Pct Error
1 1 Robert Rimpson 8 3 0.7273 22.4
2 2 Ron Kopp 8 3 0.7273 26.2
3 3 Craig Stout 8 3 0.7273 29.8
4 5 Tom Childs 8 3 0.7273 35.3
5 4 Matt Stagner 8 3 0.7273 36.0
6 6 John Dixon 7 4 0.6364 24.2
7 7 Matt Lane 7 4 0.6364 25.6
8 8 Joel Thorman 7 4 0.6364 27.7
9 9 Pete Sweeney 7 4 0.6364 33.6
10 10 Ethan Douglas 7 4 0.6364 34.3
11 11 Kent Swanson 5 6 0.4545 35.1

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

As a staff, AP contributors thought the Chiefs would beat the Chargers 29.6-24.8. That 4.8 point spread was pretty close to the seven points by which the Chiefs won the game, and the 15.6 points of error made it the season’s fourth-most accurate composite prediction.

However, we fudged it a little to make it so. In order to “break this juju,” Kent Swanson was the only contributor who picked Los Angeles, predicting the Chargers would win 1,000 to 0. Kent’s strategy worked, so in a gesture of appreciation, we adjusted his prediction for the standings. It went on the record as Chargers 35, Chiefs 17 — a touchdown more than anyone else predicted for the Chargers, and a touchdown less than anyone guessed for the Chiefs. Thanks, Kent. Your sacrifice for the common good did not go unnoticed.

Otherwise, Tom Childs came closest to the mark with a 27-20 prediction that nailed the point spread and had only six points of error. Robert Rimpson also hit the spread with a 28-21 prognostication. He and John Dixon (23-20) each had just eight points of error.

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