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Chiefs vs. Colts: Game and score predictions

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The Chiefs return to Arrowhead to take on the Colts. Who will win the game?

NFL: JAN 12 AFC Divisional Round - Colts at Chiefs Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

So far, our staff predictions have been as perfect as the Kansas City Chiefs’ record — yet another week passed with everyone picking the Chiefs to win. The team obliged with a 34-30 road victory against the Detroit Lions. Arrowhead Pride readers also expected the team to win — 96% picked the Chiefs in our poll — but 66% thought the team would win in a blowout.

For Week 5, the Chiefs return to Arrowhead to face the Indianapolis Colts in Sunday Night Football. Let’s see what our staff (and our readers) think this time:


Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

After four weeks, I’ve got some catching up to do in the standings of the AP predictions league. So obviously the sensible way to go would be to look at the spread and then base my prediction around that, but this isn’t the week I start being sensible. Chiefs blow them out on prime time in a revenge attack for all of the times Peyton Manning made us miserable. Chiefs 41, Colts 17

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

If the NFL instituted a one-week ban on forward passes, this would be an interesting game; the Chiefs and Colts are league’s worst at allowing rushing yards. But since forward passes will be continue to be legal, the Chiefs will have the edge — but maybe not as great an edge as might be imagined. Jacoby Brissett has been pretty good through four games, so I’m looking for a pretty high-scoring game that ends up. Chiefs 42, Colts 30

Ethan Douglas (@ChiefsAnalytics)

Sunday’s the day the Chiefs’ offense actually functions for all four quarters, while the defense holds strong until the second half. The game will never be in doubt, though the national media will try to convince you otherwise. Chiefs 42, Colts 24

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

This rematch of last season’s divisional round playoff game was supposed to be a battle of two AFC elites. The game doesn’t have the same luster since Andrew Luck retired, but the Colts are still a good team. They’re top 10 in the NFL in rush attempts and yards so far in 2019 — a tough test for the struggling Chiefs run defense. They don’t turn the ball over very much either. Their defense has struggled so far this season — and the Chiefs will be their toughest opponent by far. After a lack of big plays in the Week 4 win over the Lions, you can bet Mahomes and the offense are ready to get back to getting big chunks of yards through the air and excite a primetime Arrowhead crowd. Chiefs 34, Colts 17

Matt Lane (@ChiefinCarolina)

In a rematch of a divisional-round shellacking, the Colts come back to Kansas City to try and avenge their playoff defeat. Both teams are coming off of less-than-pristine performances and look to rebound on Sunday night. When the Colts have the ball, look for Jacoby Brissett to take what is given to him while the Colts rely on their offensive line and run game to damage the Chiefs. The Chiefs need to see a strong bounce-back game from their front seven against the run or at least a return to normal poor run defense. When the Chiefs have the ball, look for Patrick Mahomes and company to come out with fire after being “slowed down” last week. The Colts try to defend over the top and force tighter throws underneath while flashing team speed to get to the ball but the Chiefs have shown an ability to take advantage of that. The Chiefs firepower’ is just too much to try and play a safer, static zone defense and hold them down for an entire game. Chiefs 41, Colts 27

Robert Rimpson (@RRimpsanity)

Not only is this a rematch from last year’s playoffs, but the first time Justin Houston will be back in Kansas City since his release. With the Chiefs offensive line not playing well recently, there’s an opportunity for Houston to return with a big bang. I predict that Houston and the Colts will sack Mahomes at least twice, but that it wont be enough to stop the Chiefs from scoring their usual 25 points a game. Both teams will run the ball with success early in the game, but the Colts will eventually abandon the run to play catch up with the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs offense doesn’t look as powerful as it did against the Ravens or Raiders, but it has more success than it did against the Lions. Chiefs 27, Colts 20

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

A lot of things will have to go the Colts way this week, or it could get ugly. If Mack and Hilton play, their offense can move the ball in chunks on this Chiefs defense. If their defense can continue to prevent big plays and figure out how to slow down Mahomes and get turnovers, it will be close. If just one of those things doesn’t happen, look out. The Chiefs are due for a game where things click for four quarters. In the end, even if things go right for a Chiefs opponent, the quarterback makes the difference, and I’ll take the Chiefs with Mahomes nearly every time. Chiefs 44, Colts 24

Craig Stout (@barleyhop)

The Colts offense likes to run the ball and run multi-level route concepts — two things the Chiefs defense doesn’t defend particularly well. Jacoby Brissett may be able to work around the pocket behind a good offensive line to help nullify the Chiefs pass rush and find the open man. The matchup against the Chiefs defense looks poor this week, but the other side of the ball doesn’t. The Chiefs offense should be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air with relative ease on the national stage. The offense puts up enough points to force the Colts away from their rushing attack, and the Chiefs pull away after a couple key stops. Chiefs 38, Colts 27

Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson)

Last week went perfect for the Chiefs from a long-term perspective. They didn’t play well on either side of the football in a tough road environment and still were able to come away with a win. The dissatisfaction with the performance will fuel a good week of practice yet the Chiefs didn’t lose and ground in the race for home-field advantage.I expect a sharp performance from both sides of the ball. The offense will get right against a hobbled defense and the Chiefs’ defense will make plays on the ball in the secondary. Juan Thornhill gets his first career interception and Frank Clark quiets concerns with a big game. Chiefs 38, Colts 13

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

With the Indianapolis Colts dealing with key injuries and some Patrick Mahomes doubters beginning to come out of the woodwork, I think the Kansas City Chiefs use the national stage to remind everybody why they’re an AFC and Super Bowl favorite. On defense, defensive end Frank Clark finally breaks through for at least two sacks, and Patrick Mahomes throws for four touchdowns in a significant Chiefs victory. Chiefs 42, Colts 27

Poll

Who wins the Chiefs-Colts game?

This poll is closed

  • 63%
    Chiefs in a blowout
    (1899 votes)
  • 33%
    Chiefs in a close game
    (989 votes)
  • 2%
    Colts in a close game
    (73 votes)
  • 1%
    Colts in a blowout
    (30 votes)
2991 votes total Vote Now

2019 Standings

Rnk LW Staffer W L Pct Error
1 1 Matt Lane 4 0 1.0000 15.5
2 2 John Dixon 4 0 1.0000 16.0
3 4 Joel Thorman 4 0 1.0000 19.5
4 4 Ron Kopp 4 0 1.0000 25.5
4 7 Craig Stout 4 0 1.0000 25.5
6 3 Robert Rimpson 4 0 1.0000 27.0
7 7 Kent Swanson 4 0 1.0000 27.5
8 6 Pete Sweeney 4 0 1.0000 32.0
9 9 Matt Stagner 4 0 1.0000 33.5
10 10 Tom Childs 4 0 1.0000 46.0

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

Although the whole staff expected the Chiefs to beat the Lions, we agreed with the readers: the Chiefs would win big. Our aggregate prediction of Chiefs 40.4, Lions 19.4 — a 21-point spread — turned out to be pretty optimistic. As a group, it was our least-accurate score prediction to date, totaling 38 points of error.

None of our staffers got the point spread right. But Joel Thorman had only eight points of error in his 35-27 prediction. John Dixon predicted a final score of 31-24, which had 12 points of error. That moved Joel into third place and narrowed the gap between John and Matt Lane, who continues to lead the standings.