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Chiefs vs. Packers: Game and score predictions

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The AP staff has weighed in on Chiefs-Packers

Kansas City Chiefs v Green Bay Packers Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

For the Week 7 game against the Denver Broncos, the Arrowhead Pride staff was remarkably consistent in their view of the game. Three picked the Chiefs to win 27-24, another picked the Chiefs to win 27-23 and only two predicted a point spread greater than seven. While all picked the Chiefs to win, none really saw a 24-point blowout coming. Our readers were less confident of a win, but some saw the blowout on the way. 31% predicted a Chiefs loss, but 20% thought the Chiefs would win big.

So what do our staff members (and our readers) think about the Week 8 game against the Green Bay Packers? Let’s find out.


Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

The injury list is as long as the Chiefs’ odds on winning this game. The defense certainly showed huge signs of improvement against Denver, but was it enough to strike fear into Aaron Rodgers? I’m not so sure. Matt Moore has never been in such a favorable situation. It’s time to see what he is made of. I’m pretty sure we could stick Mitch Holthus under center and he could work some magic with Hill, Kelce & company, so Moore can hardly complain about the lack of weapons. That being said, I do think the Chiefs will drop another home game, but it’s all for the greater good of getting everyone back healthy later on. Packers 27, Chiefs 20

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

It’s pretty easy to look at the quarterback matchup and say the Chiefs will lose this game; that’s exactly what every TV talking head will do on Sunday morning. Let’s be honest: that’s exactly how it could play out. But I don’t think it will. Andy Reid has had a couple of extra days to think about this game and its unique circumstances; there will be a game plan in which Matt Moore can succeed. Green Bay isn’t built to follow the blueprint the Colts and Texans used to beat the Chiefs — and I think the Chiefs defense (at home) will be motivated to show that while the Denver game might have been an outlier, it wasn’t a fluke. Chiefs 27, Packers 24

Ethan Douglas (@ChiefsAnalytics)

The Chiefs defense had one of their best performances of the past decade last week. However, what goes up must come down, and we should expect to see some regression to the mean there. On the flip side, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers had one of his best games of the past few years last week as well. If you’ve been following along with the NFL analytics community, you’d know that advanced stats are actually down on Rodgers lately — he has the talent to play at the highest level, but on average, largely doesn’t reach that ceiling (due to a function of holding on to the ball too long and too many throwaways). I think we’ll see regression to the mean there as well, and that will outweigh the dip in performance by the Chiefs defense. Matt Moore won’t be Patrick Mahomes, but Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been Mahomes lately either. Chiefs fans will be surprised at the lack of dropoff at the QB position, as will the Green Bay defense as Chiefs take this one in overtime. Chiefs 30, Packers 27 (OT)

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

I feel robbed of an exciting, highlight-filled shootout reminiscent of the Rams game from last season. Rodgers vs. Mahomes would have been as fun a game as there will be all year. That being said, this game should still be competitive and close. The Chiefs defense will have its hands full against an offense that can succeed in the air and on the ground. Health will be a key factor there. As for the offense, I think Reid will scheme up an effective game plan to put some points up on the board, but the pass-rushing duo of Za’Darius and Preston Smith will be too disruptive. I think the Chiefs drop this game, but it won’t be a discouraging effort. Packers 27, Chiefs 20

Matt Lane (@ChiefinCarolina)

This game has really lost some hype with Patrick Mahomes not playing. The Chiefs are coming off of their best defensive performance of the year, but this weekend, they are up against much stiffer competition. When the Packers have the ball, the key will be to pressure Aaron Rodgers while staying in their rush lanes. The Packers’ wide receiver corp is a little lacking with Devante Adams hurt, so the goal should be to bring the pressure against Rodgers but make sure he can’t escape the pocket and create. When the Chiefs have the ball, all eyes will be on the quarterback position and what can Matt Moore do leading this offense. Travis Kelce and the combination of the Williamses and LeSean McCoy should be heavily featured in space against the Packers less-than-ideal athletes at linebacker. In the end, the Packers have their starting quarterback while the Chiefs will likely be fielding a backup on a team built around scoring a ton of points. Packers 27, Chiefs 17

Robert Rimpson (@RRimpsanity)

Let’s not kid ourselves here. There’s no real reason the Chiefs should win this game or even be competitive. Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones and Frank Clark are just a few of the names out of Sunday’s game due to injury, which already gives the Chiefs a steep hill to climb. Save for the game against a struggling Denver Broncos team, the Chiefs were already struggling on both sides of the ball and now will have to try and remedy those struggles with Matt Moore at the helm. Add to that a red-hot Aaron Rodgers, who looks to be in MVP form, and I believe you have an absolute blow out. Having Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill will get you some points, but not nearly enough. Packers 34, Chiefs 17

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

The Chiefs defense rose to the occasion last week, in a dominating performance that carried the team after Mahomes’s injury. I think this is closer to the true identity of Spagnuolo’s unit, with the aggression and pressure that sets the tone and puts opponents in more difficult situations. The offense is starting to get healthier around Matt Moore, and they should hold their own against a tough Packers defense. McCoy should have a big day, provided Reid remembers that he’s by far their most effective runner. Hill and Hardman should still make plays even with the backup signal-caller. The Chiefs have enough healthy talent to be an above-average team. Unfortunately, they are facing an excellent team in primetime. The Packers can exploit the Chiefs defense down the field and get to the quarterback against a makeshift KC offensive line. It will be a close one, but in the end, Rodgers might make the types plays that we’ve come to expect from Mahomes. Packers 34, Chiefs 24

Craig Stout (@barleyhop)

The Chiefs offense could struggle with a strong pass rush and a playmaking secondary in Green Bay. The Chiefs defense should struggle to cover the dynamic running backs for the Packers and may revert in run defense after a good performance. It’s a difficult matchup catching an injury-riddled Chiefs team at the wrong time. As optimistic as I have been about this Chiefs team thus far this year, this is just unfortunate timing and a very poor matchup given the Chiefs current health. A full-strength Chiefs team would be a comfortable victory pick for me, but this week is a different story. Packers 23, Chiefs 10

Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson)

The Packers are simply a better team without Patrick Mahomes playing for the Chiefs. I’m encouraged by the defensive performance last week. There are some positive indicators moving forward. But it’s Aaron Rodgers vs. Matt Moore and I just can’t put myself up to...

NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND

**tosses cheese head into trash can**

Screw it. I’m at the bottom of the predictions board anyway. We need a little optimism. Andy Reid dials up a great game, Tyreek Hill makes a few plays after the catch, Matt Moore doesn’t turn it over and generates a few explosive plays down the field including a long touchdown to Mecole Hardman (**cut to Mahomes celebrating on the sidelines after a big touchdown**). The defense plays inspired and builds off another good performance. Complete, team football gets the job done. Chiefs 27, Packers 21

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

Unfortunately for Kansas City, this is as simple a prediction as they come. Aaron Rodgers vs. Matt Moore, and the Chiefs defense (which has had one strong game in seven tries) is without its top two players in Frank Clark and Chris Jones. The Chiefs hang around, but the Packers ultimately win at Arrowhead. Packers 28, Chiefs 21

Poll

Which team wins the Chiefs-Packers game?

This poll is closed

  • 4%
    Chiefs in a blowout
    (49 votes)
  • 39%
    Chiefs in a close game
    (415 votes)
  • 26%
    Packers in a close game
    (281 votes)
  • 28%
    Packers in a blowout
    (304 votes)
1049 votes total Vote Now

2019 Standings

Rnk LW Staffer W L Pct Error
1 1 Robert Rimpson 6 1 0.8571 25.1
2 2 Tom Childs 6 1 0.8571 41.4
3 3 Matt Lane 5 2 0.7143 25.7
4 4 Joel Thorman 5 2 0.7143 26.9
5 5 John Dixon 5 2 0.7143 28.0
6 6 Ron Kopp 5 2 0.7143 30.3
7 7 Craig Stout 5 2 0.7143 30.6
8 8 Kent Swanson 5 2 0.7143 33.4
9 9 Pete Sweeney 5 2 0.7143 37.7
10 10 Matt Stagner 5 2 0.7143 41.1
11 11 Ethan Douglas 5 2 0.7143 42.0

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

As a group, AP contributors predicted the Chiefs would beat the Broncos 29.0 to 23.0. As it turned out, the composite pick was remarkably close to the the Chiefs’ point total, but was way off for the Broncos in the 30-6 Chiefs victory. Since the combined point spread was so far off the mark, it turned out to be the second-worst staff prediction of the season.

The closest individual prediction was from Craig Stout, whose 31-20 guess had 28 points of error. Ron Kopp Jr. had 36 points of error with his 27-21 pick. Robert Rimpson and Joel Thorman also had 36 error points with their 30-24 picks. The staff’s Week 7 picks were so close together that no one made a move in the standings.