That also happens to be exactly the point spread for the game shown by FiveThirtyEight.com’s Elo predictions model, too.
But unlike the FiveThirtyEight point spread, the betting line will change as the week progresses, depending on how much money comes in for each team. So far, the line has dropped. It’s down to 4 points in some sportsbooks — and is as low as 3.5 in others — suggesting that the betting public is putting more money on the Broncos in the early wagering.
Here’s your reminder: oddsmakers aren’t trying to predict which team will win. Their goal is simply to get an equal amount of money bet on both teams. That’s the way they make the most money.
There are two things to watch right now: Broncos rookie running back Phillip Lindsay could face a suspension from the NFL after being penalized and ejected for throwing a punch at the bottom of a scrum for a loose ball during Denver’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. And Dee Ford — who left Sunday’s Chiefs game with what head coach Andy Reid described as a “groin strain” will get an MRI Monday to evaluate the extent of his injury.
Should either player not be available for Monday’s game, that would have the potential to change the betting lines.