FanPost

2003 is the wrong model for this team. The right model is very encouraging.

As was probably inevitable with an offense this talented and a defense this lousy, the 2018 Chiefs are being compared to the 2003 Chiefs...the last time we could boast a truly dominant offense, but that was ultimately undone by the defense’s complete inability to stop anybody, least of all Peyton Manning.


The good news is, this is the wrong comparison. The better news is, this means the 2018 ceiling is significantly higher than the 2003 team. The bad news is, it's built to be a champion later, not now.


The right comparison is one we’re all too familiar with….the 2013 Broncos, on both sides of the ball.


The 2003 Chiefs offense was truly dominant. In the salary cap era, teams usually have a clear "weight of talent", and that team’s weight of talent was straight up the offense's middle: a serviceable QB in Trent Green, a record-setting backfield threat in Priest Holmes, the best TE in history in Tony Gonzalez, and one of the three best (if not THE best) offensive lines ever assembled.


By contrast, all the skill position talent, and a huge proportion of the passing attack, was centered around Gonzalez and Holmes. The best receiver past those two was Eddie Kennison, a retread from Denver who was solid, but not good enough to attract a defense’s attention….most of Kennison’s success was built around Gonzales dictating coverage. Dante Hall was a true gadget-play track star; magic in the open field, but without a true WR skillset (his hands, route running, and especially durability remained questionable his entire time in the league). Honestly, if pressed, I'd call the FB, prime Tony Richardson, the team's 3rd receiver...and I suspect both Green and Dick Vermeil would agree.


The issue with that team is that an offense with a special offensive line and not much else can never be better than "dominant". A defense either has the ability to break the line, or it doesn't….and nobody had the ability to break the KC line, as both Dwight Freeney and Ray Lewis would grudgingly attest to.


If it can't break the line, it stops trying...it plays back, focuses on coverage, and on stopping skill players once they have the ball. Neither Gonzalez nor Holmes could be entirely stopped...but they could be limited, and this is how the 2003 Chiefs started to get "solved" by opposing defenses; double-cover Gonzo, and have linebackers in zone that could stay free of the line and limit Holmes. It didn't really stop that offense, but it did successfully limit it...an offense that averaged almost 32 points per game during the undefeated first 9 games dropped off to less than 26 over the remaining 7.


By contrast, an offense with the weight of talent in the skill positions, rather than the line, can move past "dominant" and become "transcendent". With 4 or more receivers (counting TEs, WRs, and backs) that are capable of beating their man at every level of the defense, it becomes literally impossible to solve; somebody, at some level, even if it's the flat or shallow cross, will be open. All you need is a QB that can find them and get the ball there.


The 2013 Broncos were that kind of offense. The Thomas "brothers" (Demaryius at WR, Julius at TE) were both impossible to cover 1 on 1. Early career Eric Decker was a legitimate option if a defense somehow took the Thomases away, and newly-added slot WR Wes Welker was uncoverable within 10 yards of the LOS. Most critically, the QB running this track meet was arguably the smartest, most prepared, best vision QB in the history of the league: Manning.


That's the model for the 2018 Chiefs offense. Travis Kelce is arguably the biggest, most impossible mismatch in the league. Tyreek Hill is Dante Hall, except with legitimate WR skills (and even faster to boot). Sammy Watkins would be a defense’s focus on most other teams, and lesser options like Chris Conley and Demarcus Robinson are good enough to start on a lot of those same teams.


Best yet, and the part we as Chiefs fans are still coming to terms with, Patrick Mahomes has not only demonstrated the mental ability to find the open guy, he has arm talent to make throws Manning would have felt dirty even fantasizing about. This is an offense, like the 2013 Broncos, that has a shot to challenge records set by that 2013 Denver team. It's beyond dominant….it's transcendent.


Great. What about defense?


Mostly, what we remember about the 2003 offense is "it was really bad". This is true, but the reason it was so bad was because it lacked talent. It had a single Pro Bowler: safety Jerome Woods….and to be fair, that Pro Bowl was more a lifetime achievement award than anything. The rest of the secondary was, at best, adequate. Our best linebacker was a toss-up between try-hards Mike Maslowski and Scott Fujita. Both played a hard game of ball, but neither was truly a special talent. I actually had to look up the D-line, and still found myself saying "...who?"


That's not this defense. The 2018 Chiefs have talent at every level. Eric Berry, when healthy, is a arguably the best safety in the league. Kendall Fuller has legitimate Pro Bowl potential. Justin Houston is a black hole in run defense, and still a premier pass-rusher when he's allowed to do it. Chris Jones is a physical freak who just keeps getting better.


Again, this is very similar to the 2013 Broncos, with talents like Champ Bailey, Chris Harris, Brandon Marshall, a developing Danny Trevathan, and Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton.


Like the 2018 Chiefs, the defense was missing a couple of critical pieces that would allow the talent in place to thrive within the envisioned scheme. Also like the 2018 Chiefs, the issue was pass rush. Over the next two years, Denver drafted Von Miller, picked up veteran free agent DeMarcus Ware, and maybe most importantly, brought in a defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to maximize the scheme-to-talent fit.


This was largely financed by having an offense that was so good it could afford to lose some pieces and still be, if not transcendent, then at least dominant. Manning lost much of his physical ability, but Denver only invested enough money to fund a competent backup. Eric Decker was replaced by a cheaper Emmanuel Sanders. Julius Thomas and Wes Welker were both allowed to leave. The remaining core of what had been a transcendent offense was good enough, when paired with a legendary defense, to win a Super Bowl.


The 2013 Broncos saw their amazing season end when they ran into the one thing that could solve that offense: a truly historic secondary, the 2013, prime-years Legion of Boom. Seattle's secondary was possibly the only group in history that could confidently cover that group of skill players, and it was combined with a stout run defense and an offense that was good enough to score.


The awesome news for the 2018 Chiefs is, only one team in the league has a secondary that might be able to do the same thing: the Jaguars. The bad news is, they're in our conference. On the other hand, the Jaguars may or may not have an offense good enough to capitalize, and nobody in the AFC, outside of possibly New England, has an offense that can keep up in a shootout.


So what's the ceiling for the 2018 Chiefs? Very similar to the 2013 Broncos... an AFC Championship game, where one of the above theories (Jacksonville’s defense or the Patriots offense) will be tested. We’ll know more after having played both teams during the regular season.


That's a game that could go either way. This team, however, can't win a Super Bowl...while none of the likely NFC representatives (at this point, the Eagles, Rams, or Vikings) have that kind of defense 2013 Seattle did, they have good defenses….combined with offenses that are almost as good as ours.


That's ok...either outcome (a loss in either the AFC Championship or the Super Bowl) would represent a major step forward for the franchise.


In the meantime, the same pieces are in place for KC that were in place for Denver in 2013. An offense that will be stable for a few years, and that's so good it can afford to lose a piece or two. A defense that has talent, but just needs a piece or two to make it all work. Like DeMarcus Ware, Houston will be old, but still viable. Like Champ Bailey, Berry might not still be with the team...but the pieces around him, like Fuller, have every expectation to progress the way Harris did….and also like Bailey, Berry will have developed leaders before he’s gone.


Maybe, just maybe, we’ll also see a coordinator change to maximize a scheme for that talent.


And maybe most importantly, our QB’s best years are ahead of him, not behind.


In either case, comparing the 2018 Chiefs to the 2003 Chiefs is making the wrong comparison, and underplaying the real potential of this team. These are exciting times, and over-focusing on 2003 leads to assuming 2004-2006 KC, not 2014-2016 Denver. That's not where this team is headed.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.