FanPost

Chiefs' 2018 NFL Draft: evaluating the top 53 picks (Part II)

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

From the fan posts - Pete

Last week I wrote an article trying to cheer up some Chiefs fans that were worried about how late in the draft they are slated to pick, while also breaking down the positional distribution in the upcoming draft. If you want to review last week's article that sets the stage for the entire series, you may find it here. This article is picking up where that piece left off.

Before we get into that, here's a quick reminder of the tiers of Chiefs' needs:

Need a starter/rotational contributor - The Chiefs either have no starter or a lack of quality starter at this position.

Need depth/eventual starter - The starter is on the roster but the depth behind him his thin or non-existent (also applies to players whose contract is about to end).

Don't need anything but depth - A position in which the starter of a player getting snaps is secured and the immediate backup is already here.

For this particular post, let's focus on the positions in which the Chiefs need depth or an eventual starter. These positions are: TE, IOL, NT, and EDGE.

This is a position that players contributing to the team this year could be improved upon in the right situation but that the Chiefs also currently have adequate players on the roster at. There was some good discussion last week over whether EDGE and OG should be a higher need or not, so I want to quickly lay the groundwork for why they fall into this category instead of the "need" category.

Currently, Justin Houston and Dee Ford are slated as starters on the EDGE and by all accounts will be ready to start the year. Behind them, Tanoh Kpassagnon is a second-round pick who has now spent a year developing in the system, and behind him, there are a few long-term developmental guys.

The rotation of Houston/Ford/KPass (read as second year, second-round pick) is a quality trio of players to lead the position group. Depth behind them is light, which was the main argument against them not being a need as Ford could get hurt again or Kpassagnon could not develop. I don't think an insurance policy for Ford/KPass is a need, but rather something the Chiefs would like to have.

Bryan Witzmann is the current starting left guard for the Chiefs and you can read about his play in this article by Seth Keysor.

He is also holding off Cameron Erving and Parker Ehinger for the position. Essentially, Witzmann is the fifth-best OL on this team and as far as a fifth-best OL goes, he's around average in the NFL. He's had one year of OG experience in football, improved as the year went on and fits the athletic/size mold Reid likes in OL. An improvement over Witz would be welcomed by almost everyone but at what level of need is there to improve upon a guy who is already producing at a level of NFL adequacy.

How this post is going to progress is sorting players into sections of "Top 50 Players," who are essentially locks to go ahead of KC in the draft, "Top 75 Players" are players that are 50/50 to go before KC picks, and "Dark Horse," which will be a player or two that may be outside of a general consensus top 75 but might be surprise picks before 54. My grade of the player will also be included in each post.

Tight End

Top 50 Players:

Dallas Goedert: South Dakota St (Late Round 2) - Great hands, impressive highlights, good workout numbers sans 40, great size; fringe first-round pick.

Mike Gesicki: Penn St (Late Round 2) - Blew up the combine, new age TE with great receiving ability and dangerous red zone threat; top-50 lock.

Top 75 Players:

Hayden Hurst: South Carolina (Late Round 2) - Athletic TE that shows some in-line ability, good hands, moves well with YAC; probably top-50 pick.

Mark Andrews: Oklahoma (Early Round 3) - Athletic move TE that shows some ability to block in space, relatively polished game, could play quickly; likely outside top 50.

Interior Offensive Line

Top 50 Players:

Quenton Nelson: Notre Dame (Early Round 1) - "Best OG in X Years" and you can make a good argument; top-10 lock.

Isaiah Wynn: Georgia (Early Round 2) - Athletic, versatile OL that showed out super impressively at the Senior Bowl, if his shoulder checks out he's a first-round lock.

James Daniels: Iowa (Early Round 2) - Athletic OC prospect that dominated in a ZBS, guys with his size/movement don't last; first-round lock.

Frank Ragnow: Arkansas (Early Round 2) -Powerhousee OC prospect with OG experience, combines good tape with elite athletic testing; cleared medicals leads to a top-50 pick.

Top 75 Players:

Billy Price: Ohio St (Early Round 2) - Pro-ready OC/OG, great movement skills paired with good strength, suffered a torn pec at the combine; injury could cause him to slide a bit but still likely a top-50 pick.

Will Hernandez: UTEP (Late Round 2) - Great size and plus movement, showed well at the senior bowl, NFL circles may not be as high on him as fans; top-50 potential.

Austin Corbett: Nevada (Late Round 2) - OT to OG convert, shows good athleticism and power to be a threat inside; top 50 potential.

Nose Tackle

Top 50 Players:

Vita Vea: Washington (Early Round 2) - Penetrating NT that may have some flex up and down the DL, first-round lock.

Da'Ron Payne: Alabama (Early Round 2) - Ceiling is super high but most of his tape was "blah", Bama pedigree plus pass rush ability; top-50 lock.

Top 75 Players:

Derek Nnadi: Florida St (Late Round 2) - Run-stuffing specialist that plays with good leverage and power; fringe top-75 player.

Harrison Phillips: Stanford (Late Round 3) - Powerful hands, good anchor, run-defending specialist, NFL seems higher on him than fans; fringe top-75 player.

Dark Horses:

BJ Hill: NCST (Late Round 3) - Great athletic testing for a big man, shows good movement and pass rush ability, high ceiling could push him draft boards; doubtful top-75 player.

EDGE

Top 50 Players:

Bradley Chubb: NCST (Early Round 1) - Top EDGE prospect, all-around game, constant improvement, explosive athlete; top-10 lock.

Harold Landry: Boston College (Late Round 1) - Best pure pass rusher in the class, shows the bend you want, cleared medicals; top-15 lock.

Marcus Davenport: UTSA (Late Round 2) - Size, power, and movement are impressive but there is a ton to develop, NFL seems enamored with measurables; first-round lock.

Josh Sweat: Florida St (Late Round 2) - Great showing as an athlete at the combine, take is filled with ups and downs; with cleared medicals, he's a top-50 lock.

Top 75 Players:

Sam Hubbard: Ohio St (Early Round 2) - Technical pass rusher, great against the run, showed good flexibility at the combine; likely top-50 pick.

Lorenzo Carter: Georgia (Late Round 2) - Another freaky athlete who was used in a weird way in school, if teams bet on athleticism he's a higher pick; likely top-50 pick.

Jeff Holland: Auburn (Late Round 2) - Less than stellar athlete, plays with good hands and understands leverage and angles; likely outside top 50 picks.

Dark Horses:

Arden Key: LSU (Early Round 2) - If a team feels he cares about football and can control his weight he's an early pick, reports of his interviews aren't stellar; likely outside top 50.

Ogbonnia Okoronkwo: Oklahoma (Early Round 2) - If a team completely ignores athletic testing and measurables he could slide into the top 50; likely outside the top 50.

Let's Crunch Some Numbers!

We have 12 players that are widely considered top-50 locks this week (18 last week).

We have another 10 players that are widely considered top 75 picks this week (17 last week).

Finally, there are three players I dubbed Dark Horses that could make a surprise appearance in the top 53.

I originally defined the Top 75 players as "players that are 50/50 to go before KC picks" so let's take only half of those 10 players, leaving us five players, that will go in the top 53. This chunk of positions were light on "Dark Horse" candidates, so we won't include any of them in our math.

12 top 50 players plus five of our 10 top 75 players gives us a total of 17 players that we can realistically expect to go in the top 53.

Add that number to last week's number (27), which brings the total to 44 players coming off the board that do not play a position that is considered a top-tier need for the Chiefs.

44 of the 53 picks occurring before the Chiefs step up to the podium very well could be spent on positions that the Chiefs have their current starters and main contributors on the roster already. Fear not Chiefs fans, the draft class is shaping up to be quite friendly to our needs and draft position.

Next week, I will round out this mini-series and we will look at the positions falling into the Tier 1 need category. These positions include: DE, CB, and S.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.