FanPost

What to consider for the Chiefs defense as free agency unfolds

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

From the FanPosts. Excellent read! -Joel

A possibly tl;dr post in which I use player-alignment and snap distribution to analyze, infer, and expound.

AP readers have been treated to some excellent analyses about how the Chiefs should fix its 2017 defense:

  • WesternChief used the depth chart to examine where we might see changes and who the Chiefs might sign.
  • MNChiefsFan has offered us a stream of articles about how he values past, current and potential Chiefs and what he would do if he were GM Brett Veach.
  • Stagdsp offered many reasons to be optimistic about how the Chiefs will fare in 2018.
  • Gary McKenzie decoded Veach's vision for the Chiefs and its implications for what moves he will make in free agency and the draft.
  • Kent Swanson and KelceKrazies have posted numerous articles about defensive prospects in this year's draft.

This is all really good stuff, and I'm sure I've missed some posts that are worth reading (and please note them in the comments below).

What I haven't seen is an analysis of offseason moves that considers how defensive coordinator Bob Sutton actually uses his players. When we consider what Sutton does from the point of view of snap distribution and player alignments, I think we will find that the defense could easily rebound towards average in the space of this offseason but that the prospect of turning in a top five performance is likely a bit more remote.

(A note on methodology: I used Football Outsiders (FO) snap count data, FO Almanac, and 2017 film review to draw conclusions about where and how often Sutton deploys his players in a given alignment. I'm highly confident in snap count data, but the alignment information is more fuzzy due to lack of access to a play-by-play database like NFL GSIS. Still, I've done my best to make reasonable inferences based on the information available to me.)

Sutton's Tendencies

To begin, I'm going to posit the 2015 defense as pretty close to the Sutton ideal. The Chiefs had their highest finish in FO's defensive weighted-DVOA (2d) and points allowed (3d) in Sutton's 5-year tenure. The roster boasted both quality and depth, and I can only dream wistfully about what might have been had Houston been fully healthy during the playoffs.

Position

Player

Age

Exp'c

GS

Snaps

DL

Dontari Poe

25

3

13

759

DL

Jaye Howard

27

3

14

752

DL

Allen Bailey

26

4

12

582

DL

Mike Devito

31

8

5

293

ILB

Derrick Johnson*

33

10

16

1062

ILB

Josh Mauga

28

5

14

462

ROLB

Tamba Hali*

32

9

14

838

LOLB

Justin Houston*

26

4

11

621

OLB

Dee Ford

24

1

5

480

LCB

Marcus Peters*

22

Rook

16

1037

RCB

Sean Smith

28

6

13

834

CB

Phillip Gaines

24

1

3

169

FS

Ron Parker

28

4

16

1057

SS

Eric Berry*+

27

5

15

1033

S

Husain Abdullah

30

7

1

434

S

Tyvon Branch

29

7

3

428

* - Pro-Bowl

+ - All-Pro

For what it's worth, the 5-year snap count average tracks pretty closely to this ideal. You can see my research results in this spreadsheet.

Here’s what I have observed in studying the "ideal team" and my other sources noted above:

  1. Sutton uses players at these positions on nearly 100 percent of the snaps: a) two down linemen, mostly in 1- or 3-tech alignments. I didn’t see a man lined up over center even half as often, which argues against the need for a pure NT; b) one ILB; c) two OLB; d) two CB; and e) two safeties, where at least one is positioned 15-20 yards off the line of scrimmage.
  2. Sutton uses a base defense (three DL, two ILB, two OLB, two CB, two S) on 29 percent of snaps.
  3. He uses five DBs (nickel) on about 40 percent of the snaps and six-plus DBs 29 percent of the time.
  4. He deploys three down linemen only about 40 percent of the time.
  5. Sutton prefers to use a four-man rotation on the defensive line and tends to lean heavily on his top player, especially when he’s named Dontari Poe.
  6. A second ILB plays anywhere from 35 percent to 45 percent of the snaps. Third and fourth options at ILB see the field only due to injury or when Sutton has a chance to rest starters.
  7. Sutton seems to prefer using safeties rather than CBs in dime and nickel packages, possibly because they offer more flexibility vs the pass and more size against the run.This was true even in 2017, when safety play was, um, slightly below the standard set in 2015.
  8. Readers might be surprised to learn that Ron Parker logged more snaps than Eric Berry, even in years when Berry was healthy. This is because he mostly played the free safety role and was more often than not aligned in a single-high position as the ball was snapped.

As a qualitative matter, I think we can describe the Chiefs defense as a hybrid 3-4, with an emphasis on positional flexibility and playing speed, which in turn is a combination of physical talent and football smarts and skills (and I believe Sutton tends to favor smarts and skills over raw athletic traits).

For the defensive line, this style does not require a true nose tackle, but it does need stout players with nimble feet. Down linemen in Sutton's scheme face double teams as often as not - if not throughout the play, then at least initially as part of a combo block on a running play. Sutton also tended to ask his linemen to move laterally at the snap. As an example, it was common for two DTs to line up at the 3-tech either side of center and then push inwards when the ball was snapped. The idea was to close off the A-gaps without having to actually position a lineman there. An example from the pass rush typically involved a DT crossing the face of a blocker in the hopes of opening up a hole for a blitzer or stunting lineman to move through.

Inside linebackers and underneath safeties (i.e., safeties positioned within 12 yards of the LOS) are under a lot of pressure in the Sutton style because they need to diagnose plays quickly. When defending the run, they need to fill gaps and / or beat blockers to their spots to take away running lanes. Against the pass, they need to get into zone drops at the right depth and track receiver movement. They need to close quickly on passing targets to have a chance to break up a completion or limit yards after the catch. And they need to execute on all this while maintaining spatial integrity (coverage) with the rest of the defense. With the proliferation of read-option runs, RPOs, and the use of four and five receiver sets, the reads are becoming more numerous and complex, and the potential for confusion and muddied play is increasing. Derrick Johnson and Eric Berry excelled in these areas in years past, and this is a huge question mark for 2018. It's unclear whether the Chiefs have a replacement for Johnson (Update: They have since signed LB Anthony Hitchens), and it's unknown how well Berry will recover from last year's Achilles tendon injury.

Outside linebackers seal the edge versus the run and create the bulk of the QB pressure. Sutton just about always puts two OLBs on the field, and the only question is whether they're good enough. In 2017, they weren't, especially after Ford suffered his back injury.

Sutton's outside CBs typically play man, either in off-man or press coverage, and their primary responsibility is to avoid getting beaten deep. They also need to stick with underneath routes enough to hold completion rates down, say, to 62 percent or less in the 10-20 yard range (that sounds like a high number, but it's the NFL average for that depth in 2017). Slot corners typically play man coverage as well, though the role often blurred into a zone assignment, especially when facing bunch alignments by the opposing receivers.

Defensive holes and how to fill them

When I integrate this usage pattern with the players under contract for 2018, here's a what I think the snap distribution might look like:

Position Group

Projected 2018 Unit

Projected Snaps

Primary Alignments

DL1

Chris Jones

700

1-, 3-, 5-Tech

DL2

Allen Bailey

600

1-, 3-, 5-Tech

DL3

??

430

0-, 1-, 3-Tech

DL4

??

425

0-, 1-, 3-Tech

DL5

??

125

??

ILB1

??

855


ILB2

Reggie Ragland

450


ILB3

Ukeme Eligwe

125


ILB4

Terrance Smth

50


OLB1

Justin Houston

850

R-OLB

OLB2

Dee Ford

550

L-OLB

OLB3

Tanoh Kpassagnon

400

L-OLB

OLB4

??

200

??

CB1

Kendall Fuller

950

Slot, Outside Right

CB2

Steven Nelson

900

Outside Left, Slot

CB3

David Amerson

400

Outside Left

CB4

??

150


S1

Leon McQuay III

950

High Safety

S2

Eric Berry

900

Underneath, Slot, Big Nickel

S3

??

600

Underneath, Slot, Big Nickel

S4

Daniel Sorensen

130

Big Nickel

S5

??

100


I like this table because it lets us see how many holes there are on the roster and how big they are. The most obvious issue here is that KC has only two defensive linemen under contract for 2018. Jones is a stud entering his prime and won't be a free agent for two years. Bailey's deal is up after this year, and at 29 he is on the downslope of his career. The Chiefs really need an infusion of talent and depth here.

There are players available in free agency who can help, though they all carry some risk. Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson, Daquan Jones, Dontari Poe, and Bennie Logan are the higher priced options and possible day one signings (and I wouldn't be surprised to see Bailey gets cut if KC lands Richardson or Wilkerson). For my money, however, I'd retain Bailey, sign some lower-end free agents later in the process (e.g., Mike Pennel or Jay Bromley), make a run at a restricted free agent or two (Xavier Williams or Shelby Harris), and then draft the best tackle available in the third round.

The next big area of concern is at inside linebacker. I know that many fans hope Ragland will fill Johnson's three-down ILB role, but I have my doubts. To my eyes, he plays too slow. He looked awkward in his zone drops and hesitant against the run. I watched probably half of his snaps from last year and honestly didn't see that many impact plays. Maybe he'll start playing faster with experience, or maybe better line play will make his job easier. I just think it's far from a sure thing. Having said this, Ragland at ILB2 is a pretty good player, especially on a rookie deal.

If Ragland isn't the answer at ILB1, then that leaves four possibilities - free agency, the draft, trade acquisition, or roster development. I obviously don't know one way or the other, but I find it hard to believe any top tier LBs in their prime are available via trade. If Veach knows otherwise, then great, I hope he makes the deal. In the alternative, I do think the Chiefs should execute on the other three options all at the same time. Sign a Bradham or a Bowman or a Brown, draft the best LB available in the second round, and let Ragland, Ukeme Eligwe and Terrance Smith compete for snaps in training camp. This is such a crucial position in Sutton's scheme that it's hard to see the defense returning to elite status without an impact player.

At outside linebacker, I think Veach is banking on Houston, Ford, and Kpassagnon to comprise 90 percent of the rotation. Justin Houston had an outstanding season in 2017 while the rest of the roster under-performed. I'm assuming Houston will continue to play well, Dee Ford will deliver value on a limited snap count, and Tanoh Kpassagnon will continue to develop, perhaps even supplanting Ford on the right side. (In my dreams, Sutton also uses K-Pass as a 5-tech down lineman in some exotic pressure packages, which means it will most certainly NOT happen. But still. It could. Couldn't it?) There's always an option to sign a free agent - I like Trent Murphy - but it's a low-priority move.

I believe the Chiefs are closest to a complete roster at defensive back, which surprises me as much as anybody. At cornerback, Kendall Fuller promises to be an elite player, while Nelson has the experience and the track record to suggest he may become an above-average starter. Amerson could be the guy whose job is not to get beat deep on the right. I also think Veach will bring in competition at that spot, as there are several free agents out there who could fill this role at a "value" price. Prince Amukamara comes to mind, as does Ross Cockrell and perhaps Rashaan Melvin.

At safety, I'm assuming that Berry does indeed return to form for 2018. He's done it twice before, so why doubt him now? I also think Leon McQuay will secure the high safety role that Ron Parker vacated. This belief is based on comments from the coaching staff, 20 minutes of film on YouTube, and his play in Week 17 against the Broncos last year. It's thin evidence, but since I'm allowed one leap of faith per year (my post, my rules), I'm putting it on McQuay. To fill out the roster and insure against another Berry injury or McQuay's failure to seize his opportunity, KC should sign Eric Reid, who could be to 2018 what Tyvon Branch was to 2015 - the special sauce that brings the squad together. Oh, and if he keeps Sorensen on the bench, then so much the better.

Salary cap, draft picks and roster outlook

While the Chiefs have limited cap dollars for 2018 (about $20 million after setting dollars aside for draft picks and emergency signings), the team could have upwards of $80 million available in 2019. Moreover, Mitch Morse and Harrison Butker will probably be the only two priority free agents to resign in 2019, while Dee Ford has an outside shot at being a third. This means that Veach can easily structure this year's free agent contracts without damaging the team's cap outlook in future years.

Unfortunately, the team is pretty light on draft resources, largely because it lacks a first round pick (it was worth it for Mahomes!). Warren Sharp has a nice graphic out that shows the Chiefs have about 67 percent of the average amount of draft "capital" in the form of eight picks (54, 78, 86, 122, 124, 196, 233, and 243). The volume suggests some room for maneuvering during the draft or for using to trade for veteran players, but only by so much. I think Veach will do well to find one strong contributor for 2018 and maybe 2 more good development prospects from this draft.

In general, the limited cap space relative to the rest of the league, the dearth of draft capital, and the fact that Berry and Houston, two of KC's premier players, are at or nearing the end of their prime seasons are three reasons that I think Veach will be pushing uphill in his efforts to build the defensive into an elite unit. Average, on the other hand, is completely within reach. Given our hopes for Mahomes and the rest of the offense, average might be good enough to make the Chiefs a contender.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.