I’m always trying to find as many Kansas City Chiefs-related nuggets as I can. One thing I’ve been fixated on trying to get more information on is the Alex Smith trade.
It’s been rumored the Cleveland Browns offered two second-round picks for Smith, so, for the purpose of this exercise, let’s assume that to be true.
The Browns own three second-round picks: 33 (their own), 35 (from Houston) an 64 (from Philadelphia).
So what does that tell us about what the Chiefs think of Kendall Fuller? Let’s do some math with the NFL draft trade value chart. While this isn’t a perfect chart, it is still useful. Most trades you see on draft day for picks usually fall closely in line with this chart.
Let’s assume the offer was 35 and 64. The point total for those two picks is 820 points on the trade value chart. That is also a little above the value of the 21st pick in the draft.
The Chiefs denied that trade, and chose to acquire pick No. 78 (200 points) and the two years remaining on the contract of Kendall Fuller. That leaves 620 points in trade value compared to the Browns offer.
The 30th pick in the NFL draft is valued at 620 points. That seems to indicate the Chiefs value Fuller as a late first-round pick.
It could be that the Chiefs wanted to do Smith a solid by getting him somewhere that he could get a long-term deal. It could be that they wanted him in the NFC as well. But the Chiefs had to have close to or above the valuation of Fuller I outlined.
The Browns’ offer didn’t blow them away so much that they had to make a business decision to not do any favors for Smith. The value they perceived they got from Washington kept a lucrative offer from Cleveland off the table.
The Chiefs did an excellent job getting out ahead of the market and getting significant value. They have cheap, controllable talent in Fuller and regained some of their draft capital lost in the Mahomes trade.
Looking back on the trade for Mahomes, the Chiefs got the 10th pick (1300 points) for the 27th pick (680 points) and the 91st pick (136 points) in last year’s draft and this year’s 22nd pick (780 points). They overspent by about 296 points to acquire Mahomes. They recouped 200 points with pick 78 and Fuller this year.
All the draft capital the Chiefs lost, they’ve recouped.
Brett Veach is doing an excellent job navigating through all the tough decisions this organization needs to make. I can’t wait to see what he does next.