Where is the time going!?!?
It’s already Week 13, and the Chiefs are coming down the stretch to end their season. Last week was the bye, and before that the Chiefs faced the Rams in an epic showdown that won’t be forgotten any time soon.
Two weeks ago, we mentioned the Goff/McVay version of the Rams were 5-2 in games in which both teams scored more than 30 points, and the Mahomes/Reid combo were 1-1. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the Rams continued their prowess in shootouts as they move to 6-2, and the Chiefs moved to 1-2.
This is something the Chiefs will need to improve upon as the season continues.
There’s a lot of bad marks for the Raiders in the image above... we’ll actually touch on that first.
1. Bottom dwellers
As the graph above suggests, the Raiders are terrible this year. I took some time to make a list of just some of the things the Raiders rank in the bottom five statistically:
- Points Allowed
- Points Scored
- Defensive penalties
- Passing touchdowns
- Sacks allowed
- Rushing touchdowns
- Starting field position
- Offensive drive scoring percentage
- Yards per play allowed
- Offensive red zone scoring percentage
- Passing yards per attempt allowed
- Touchdown percentage allowed
- Passer rating allowed
- Sacks forced
- Sack percentage
- Yards per rushing attempt allowed
- Passing touchdowns allowed
- Rushing yards per game allowed
- Punt return touchdowns allowed
- Defensive third down percentage
- Defensive fourth down percentage
... and this isn’t even a complete list.
Long story short, the Raiders are having a boatload of troubles right now.
2. Sutton’s son
Adding to the Raiders’ troubles is the fact Bob Sutton has owned Derek Carr while being the defensive coordinator for the Chiefs.
Derek Carr is 2-6 with a 72.2 rating against Bob Sutton. The next two QBs close to that rating in 2018 are Rosen (68.9) and Darnold (68.3).— Gary McKenzie (@Super_G_Chiefs) December 1, 2018
If Sutton was owning the Raiders offense when their offense was decent... I wonder what will happen now the Raiders offense is putrid.
To expand on Sutton’s dominance of Carr further:
In 8 games against Sutton, Derek Carr has averaged the following:— Gary McKenzie (@Super_G_Chiefs) December 1, 2018
230 Y/G, 1.3 TD/G, 0.9 INT/G
Over a whole season, that would look like:
3,680 yards, 21 TD, 14 INT
.... that's some weak sauce right there.
To me, the biggest point of curiosity is the Raiders offense over the past several years with Carr at the helm hasn’t been exactly terrible save for his rookie season: (note Y/P = offensive yards/play)
- 2018 Y/P - 5.4 (22nd)
- 2017 Y/P - 5.4 (11th)
- 2016 Y/P - 5.7 (9th)
- 2015 Y/P - 5.3 (22nd)
- 2014 Y/P - 4.5 (32nd)
If Sutton was able to dominate Carr in 2017 and 2016, it really spells bad news for the Raiders offense which has declined significantly in 2018.
Offensively, the Chiefs are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL, while defensively, the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL in regard to allowing explosive plays:
Blue = good, orange = bad.
The Chiefs have the best marginal explosiveness passing game in the NFL, while the Raiders defense is the worst at allowing explosive passes.
For clarification on what marginal explosiveness in the passing game is, see the following:
The difference between a team’s explosiveness (as measured by IsoPPP which looks at the average equivalent point value of a team’s successful plays) on pass plays and the expected IsoPPP value of each play based on down, distance, and most importantly, yard line.
In layman’s terms, this just means when the Chiefs throw the ball, they exceed their line to gain in bigger chunks than any other NFL team.
In regard to the Raiders, it means they allow the biggest chunks past the line to gain.
Long story short, Mahomes is probably going to be dropping bombs on Sunday.
4. A ridiculous mismatch
Heading into this game, the Raiders have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The mismatch between Mahomes and the Raiders secondary is absolutely absurd:
I can’t remember seeing a game in recent memory where the quarterback led the league in many passing metrics, and the defense was the worst in the league in many passing metrics.
If I had to pick a single game to put money on in 2018, for Mahomes to break the single-game passing touchdown record, it would be this week’s game against the Raiders.
5. Chiefs pass rush and defensive improvement
One area I’ve been tracking the Chiefs this year is their improvement along the defensive side of the ball. However, after the Rams game the Chiefs defense took quite the hit:
This is something I’ve been tracking for the Chiefs as the season progresses.
Make no mistake, the Chiefs have a phenomenal offense, but in years past, given all the knowledge I’ve obtained regarding winning a Super Bowl — the Chiefs defense is going to need to improve if they want to have their best shot of going all the way.
This week against the Raiders is yet another opportunity to drop their points per game allowed and try and regain some of the progress they made before the Rams game.
In regard to sacks, the Chiefs have been destroying offensive lines throughout 2018, and the Raiders offensive line has been getting destroyed:
Derek Carr has been sacked the 4th most times in 2018 (35). Meanwhile the Chiefs defense has the 4th most sacks (36).— Gary McKenzie (@Super_G_Chiefs) December 1, 2018
In a game where the Chiefs are likely to run up the score, the Raiders will need to pass the ball frequently. It should be a long day in the pocket for Carr.
The stats leading up to this game are looking really rough for Derek Carr. Not only does Bob Sutton own him, but he’s also dealing with problems on the offensive line. It should be a very long day for Carr.
What are your key stats heading into the Chiefs/Rams game? Weigh in below.