FanPost

The AFC Playoff Picture; 25 Games for 11 Potential Playoff Bound Teams

With three weeks to go in the 2018 NFL Regular Season there are currently 11 teams that have "a shot" at making the playoffs. I wanted, due to my own obscession, to look at the AFC teams that have any realisitic opportunity to make the Playoffs this year. I also want to make considerations of which Playoff schedule would be in the best interest for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Current AFC Standings (BOLD - Clinched Playoffs, ITALICIZED - Current Playoff Teams)

#1 - Kansas City Chiefs (AFC W) 11-2
#2 - New England Patriots (AFC E) 9-4
#3 - Houston Texans (AFC S) 9-4
#4 - Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC N) 7-5-1
#5 - Los Angeles Chargers (Wild Card) 10-3
#6 - Baltimore Ravens (Wild Card) 7-6
#7 - Indinapolis Colts (AFC S) 7-6
#8 - Miami Dolphins (AFC E) 7-6
#9 - Tennessee Titans (AFC S) 7-6
#10 - Denver Broncos (AFC W) 6-7
#11 - Cleveland Browns (AFC N) 5-7-1
#12 - Cincinatti Bengals (AFC N) 5-8
#13 - Buffalo Bills (AFC E) 4-9 *Eliminated from Playoff Contention*
#14 - Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC S) 4-9 *Eliminated from Playoff Contention*
#15 - New York Jets (AFC E) 4-9 *Eliminated from Playoff Contention*
#16 - Oakland Raiders (AFC W) 3-10 *Eliminated from Playoff Contention*

Current Playoff Probabilities for the 11 eligible teams (FiveThirtyEight Projections):

KC - Playoffs (100%), Win Division (90%), 1st Round Bye (90%), Win Super Bowl (21%)
New England - Playoffs (>99%), Win Division (>99%), 1st Round Bye (79%), Win Super Bowl (13%)
Houston - Playoffs (96%), Win Division (80%), 1st Round Bye (18%), Win Super Bowl (2%)
Pittsburgh - Playoffs (62%), Win Division (56%), 1st Round Bye (1%), Win Super Bowl (3%)
Los Angeles - Playoffs (>99%), Win Division (10%), 1st Round Bye (10%), Win Super Bowl (6%)
Baltimore - Playoffs (55%), Win Division (43%), 1st Round Bye (<1%), Win Super Bowl (2%)
Indinapolis - Playoffs (27%), Win Division (7%), 1st Round Bye (<1%), Win Super Bowl (<1%)
Miami - Playoffs (20%), Win Division (2%), 1st Round Bye (<1%), Win Super Bowl (<1%)
Tennessee - Playoffs (34%), Win Division (12%), 1st Round Bye (<1%), Win Super Bowl (<1%)
Denver - Playoffs (5%), Win Division (0%), 1st Round Bye (0%), Win Super Bowl (<1%%)
Cleveland - Playoffs (<1%), Win Division (<1%), 1st Round Bye (0%), Win Super Bowl (<1%)

How each team is most likely to make the 2018-2019 NFL Playoffs:

Kansas City Chiefs - We already know that the Chiefs are IN the playoffs, what we truely don't know yet is how. Based on the probabilities above we can see that the Chiefs have a 90% chance to win the division and get a 1st Round Bye. How do they do that, simple...they beat the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. The harder way to finish the Regular Season with the AFC West crown and that 1st Round Bye would be to win 2 of the remaining three games (if they were to lose against the Chargers). Remaining schedule: Chargers(W), @ Seahawks(W) & Raiders(W). Prediction: Chiefs win the AFC West and the 1st Round Bye via the #1 Seed.

Houston Texans - Not sure if you noticed but the Texans have been a quite good team this year, losing only to the Patriots, Giants (ewwww), Colts and the Titans to less than one score each. This could be a scary team in the playoffs, but they have to get some work done first. They are currently at 96% probability to make the playoffs with a 80% chance to win the AFC S. The thing to consider for the Texans regarding on where it will end is this though, other teams. The Texans could win out and do no better than the 3rd seed in the playoffs, but with a little help could reach up and get a 1st Round Bye and the 2nd seed. Remaining schedule: @ Jets(W), @ Eagles(W) & Jaguars(W). Prediction: Texans win the AFC South and the 1st Round Bye via the #2 Seed (Thanks to the Patriots losing to the Steelers this Sunday).

New England Patriots - Well, if not for the "Miricle in Miami" (thanks again Dolphins!) the Patriots would have already been IN the playoffs as of last week. Last weeks result goes inline with their current road reacord of 3-4. With >99% chances to win the AFC E, Sunday's loss to the Dolphins really just postponed a playoff birth for the Patirots. The path forward for the Patriots is fairly simply, win and their in but they need to keep winning to taek the #2 seed. The Texans and Steelers are the only other two teams that could take the #2 seed away from the Patriots (Chargers would only be able to take the Chiefs position, not replace the Patriots). Remaining schedule: @ Steelers(L), Bills(W) & Jets(W). Prediction: Patriots win the AFC East but fail to get the 1st Round Bye and end up with the #3 Seed.

Baltiomre Ravens - Remember this team, this would be a scary team in the playoffs. The combination of a team running game alongside a stout defense will give teams problems in the playoffs. The Ravens, like the Texans will need a little help when deciding their fate and where they will likely make the playoffs but they can also do themselves a lot of help by winning out to finish the season. The Steelers and even the Browns are still in contention for the AFC N title so the Ravens have to keep pressing. Remaining Schedule: Buccaneers(W), @ Chargers(W), Browns(W). Prediction: Ravens win the AFC North with the #4 Seed.

Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins pulled off the "Miricle in Miami" to defeat the Patriots last week and it will likely be top 5 play of the year (if not the top). While keeping their divisional foe from clinching the AFC East last week the Dolphins kept their playoff hopes alive, and they will keep need to win out to get to the playoffs. This, to me, seems like a team that could simply be getting healthy/right at the right time but will have to monitor QB Ryan Tannehill's health. Remaning Schedule: @ Vikings(W), Jaguars(W) & @ Bills(W). Prediction: Miami win a Wild Card birth with the #5 Seed.

Los Angels Chargers - No epic breakdown, at least not a full one, this year for our friends the Chargers. While they hold the 2nd best AFC record at 10-3, they do have a fairly tough schedule to finish their year and are dealing with some injuries. With that said, a single will would likely secure the Chargers a playoff birth (>99% to make the playoffs now) and the AFC West isn't out of the question for them but they don't have much of a shot there with 10% probability. The Chargers are likely going to have to take a Wild Card positon for the upcoming playoffs, win or lose over the next three weeks. Remaining Schedule: @ Chiefs(L), Ravens(L), @ Broncos(L). Prediction: Chargers sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card team with the # 6 Seed.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Who says that Week 1 doesn't matter? I have the Steelers missing out on the playoffs and that tie in Week 1 to the Browns is the deciding factor. Simply put 10-6 teams win out over 9-6-1 teams. The Steelers are banged up and have a pretty hard schedule to end the season, which is why they won't be playing in January. Remaining Schedule: Patriots(W), @ Saints(L), Bengals(W).

Indinapolis Colts - The Colts really don't hold their own destiny in their hands from this point on. They need to win out but would need some losses by other teams to make the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Colts I don't think they even get an opportunity to root for other teams, I have them losing to the Cowboys this week which will likley end their playoff hopes. Remaining Schedule: Cowboys(L), Giants(W) & @ Titans(W)

Tennessee Titans - The Titans, like the Colts will need to win out and then also get some help to make the playoffs. I think that the Titans will keep their playoff hopes alive until Week 17 when they take a loss to the Colts. They would have also lost out on the playoffs during that Week with a Dolphins win. Remaining Schedule: @ Giants(W), Redskins(W) & Colts(L).

Denver Broncos - With very small playoff chances (5%), the Broncos really need help getting into the playoffs. Unfortuantely for them, it's too much to ask for and they are left out in the cold. I think the Broncos can packup the season after a loss this weekend to the Cleveland Browns. Remaining Schedule: Browns(L), @ Raiders(W) & Chargers(W).

Cleveland Browns - Who, who would have though that the Browns would still be alive come Week 15? Seriously, this team can still make the playoffs via a AFC North division championship...seriously. Like the other lower teams here, they need help and must win out to do it (<1% chances). I think that that Browns give it a shot next week when they beat the Broncos but a Ravens and Steelers win will eliminate the Browns this year (there's always next year though). Remaining Schedule: @ Broncos(W), Bengals(W) & @ Ravens(L).

Teams that I want the Chiefs to avoid in the playoffs, which might have an effect on my Playoff predictions below; Ravens & Chargers. The Ravens have the great running game and good defense to give KC problems (see last week) and the Chargers are just too familar with the Chiefs for me to want to see them a 3rd time (no matter tomorrow's outcome).

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:

#1 - Kansas City Chiefs
#2 - Houston Texans
#6 - Los Angeles Chargers vs #3 - New England Patriots *Patriots WINS 37-34*
#5 - Miami Dolphins vs #4 - Baltimore Ravens *Miami WINS 17-13*

#5 - Miami Dolphins vs #1 - Kansas City Chiefs *Kanas City WINS 37-24*

#3 - New England Patriots vs #2 - Houston Texans *Houston WINS 27-26*

#2 - Houston Texans vs #1 - Kansas City Chiefs *Kansas City WINS 42-32*

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.