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Week 5 True Power Rankings: Chiefs hold steady after factoring in numbers

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We back-check the pundit power rankings from Tuesday with our cruncher data to see where we are

Week 5 is here, and after figuring in the data from the number-crunchers we’ve been tracking, the Kansas City Chiefs are still in second place overall behind the Los Angeles Rams. But the Jacksonville Jaguars — the team the Chiefs face at Arrowhead on Sunday — are right behind them!

Here’s how the crunchers see the NFL this week:

Cruncher Power Rankings for Week 5

Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC Teams

Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE
1
(1)
Rams
4-0
3
(3)
1
(1)
2
(2)
1
(1)
2
(2)
Ravens
3-1
6
(11)
5
(5)
1
(1)
2
(2)
3
(2)
Chiefs
4-0
1
(2)
3
(3)
5
(7)
6
(7)
4
(9)
Jaguars
3-1
7
(9)
4
(6)
6
(23)
4
(6)
5
(14)
Bears
3-1
17
(22)
2
(10)
4
(22)
3
(10)
6
(4)
Panthers
2-1
8
(8)
8
(7)
7
(9)
7
(8)
7
(8)
Saints
3-1
5
(6)
11
(12)
9
(8)
8
(15)
8
(6)
Bengals
3-1
16
(17)
7
(4)
3
(3)
10
(9)
Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE
9
(25)
Patriots
2-2
3
(4)
15
(23)
10
(32)
9
(29)
10
(13)
Redskins
2-1
19
(21)
9
(9)
8
(18)
5
(3)
11
(4)
Eagles
2-2
2
(1)
17
(13)
17
(6)
14
(12)
12
(16)
Falcons
1-3
9
(7)
23
(27)
11
(14)
17
(19)
13
(26)
Packers
2-1-1
21
(24)
10
(22)
20
(27)
11
(23)
14
(19)
Titans
3-1
15
(18)
22
(24)
13
(20)
13
(16)
15
(15)
Chargers
2-2
13
(13)
12
(16)
21
(15)
19
(21)
16
(7)
Dolphins
3-1
18
(16)
6
(2)
23
(13)
20
(4)
Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE
16
(17)
Seahawks
2-2
11
(12)
30
(25)
14
(19)
12
(14)
18
(9)
Steelers
1-2-1
10
(5)
21
(17)
15
(5)
22
(17)
19
(18)
Colts
1-3
29
(27)
16
(18)
12
(12)
18
(18)
20
(11)
Jets
1-3
27
(26)
19
(7)
16
(11)
15
(5)
21
(19)
Broncos
2-2
25
(25)
14
(15)
18
(16)
24
(22)
22
(22)
Cowboys
2-2
14
(14)
24
(21)
24
(21)
23
(28)
23
(27)
Texans
1-3
31
(31)
13
(11)
22
(30)
21
(26)
24
(23)
Vikings
1-2-1
11
(10)
25
(19)
29
(31)
27
(25)
Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE
25
(24)
49ers
1-3
24
(23)
18
(14)
27
(26)
25
(24)
26
(21)
Browns
1-2-1
32
(32)
28
(26)
19
(10)
16
(13)
27
(28)
Raiders
1-3
26
(28)
20
(28)
26
(17)
29
(30)
28
(30)
Lions
1-3
19
(20)
27
(30)
30
(28)
26
(27)
29
(12)
Buccaneers
2-2
22
(15)
29
(20)
25
(4)
28
(11)
30
(29)
Giants
1-3
30
(30)
26
(29)
27
(25)
30
(20)
31
(31)
Bills
1-3
23
(19)
32
(32)
32
(24)
31
(31)
32
(32)
Cardinals
0-4
28
(28)
31
(31)
31
(29)
32
(32)
Numbers in parentheses are the previous week's ranking.
The left-hand column is the average of all rankings.
Other questions?
Read the True Power Rankings Methodology

The Chiefs are still looking good, with an average cruncher ranking of third, which is down one spot from last week.

Elo still likes the Chiefs — ranking them first — because the Chiefs are the last remaining undefeated team from last season’s top teams. The Rams — the other undefeated team — started the season from farther back in the pack, so by Elo’s reckoning, that’s only good for third right now.

DVOA continues to be impressed with the overall play of the Chiefs so far — especially on offense. PE and SRS both give the Chiefs upticks in their rankings following their four-point victory over the Denver Broncos.

Now let’s average the Pundit Power Rankings from Tuesday with the Cruncher Power Rankings we just showed you.

True Power Rankings for Week 5

Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC Teams

Rank Team Pundits Crunchers
1
(1)
Rams
4-0
1
(1)
1
(1)
2
(2)
Chiefs
4-0
2
(2)
3
(2)
3
(6)
Jaguars
3-1
3
(4)
4
(9)
4
(8)
Ravens
3-1
7
(15)
2
(2)
5
(5)
Saints
3-1
4
(5)
7
(8)
6
(4)
Panthers
2-1
6
(6)
6
(4)
7
(17)
Patriots
2-2
5
(12)
9
(25)
8
(16)
Bears
3-1
11
(18)
5
(14)
Rank Team Pundits Crunchers
9
(9)
Bengals
3-1
8
(14)
8
(6)
10
(3)
Eagles
2-2
9
(3)
11
(4)
11
(18)
Packers
2-1-1
10
(10)
13
(26)
12
(13)
Redskins
2-1
15
(17)
10
(13)
13
(20)
Titans
3-1
12
(20)
14
(19)
14
(15)
Chargers
2-2
14
(16)
15
(15)
15
(12)
Falcons
1-3
18
(11)
12
(16)
16
(7)
Dolphins
3-1
16
(7)
16
(7)
Rank Team Pundits Crunchers
17
(10)
Steelers
1-2-1
17
(9)
18
(9)
18
(14)
Vikings
1-2-1
13
(8)
24
(23)
19
(22)
Seahawks
2-2
22
(21)
16
(17)
20
(19)
Broncos
2-2
19
(19)
21
(19)
21
(25)
Cowboys
2-2
20
(25)
22
(22)
22
(24)
Colts
1-3
25
(24)
19
(18)
23
(11)
Buccaneers
2-2
21
(13)
29
(12)
24
(29)
Texans
1-3
25
(30)
23
(27)
Rank Team Pundits Crunchers
25
(21)
Jets
1-3
29
(27)
20
(11)
26
(23)
Browns
1-2-1
24
(22)
26
(21)
27
(26)
Lions
1-3
23
(23)
28
(30)
28
(27)
49ers
1-3
28
(28)
25
(24)
29
(28)
Giants
1-3
27
(26)
30
(29)
30
(31)
Raiders
1-3
30
(31)
27
(28)
31
(30)
Bills
1-3
31
(29)
31
(31)
32
(32)
Cardinals
0-4
32
(32)
32
(32)
Numbers in parentheses are the previous week's ranking.
The left-hand column is the average of all rankings.
Other questions?
Read the True Power Rankings Methodology

As you can see, the Chiefs are still ranked second in the Week 5 True Power Rankings — tops in the AFC, and well ahead of their division rivals — which serves to confirm what we saw in Tuesday’s pundit power rankings.

Elsewhere, the crunchers continue to like the Baltimore Ravens more than the pundits do. They’re holding steady with DVOA, SRS and PE — and with their 3-1 record, they’re catching up in Elo. But although the pundits are taking notice — ranking them seventh on Tuesday — they’re not yet convinced.

In the crunchers’ estimation, the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots both rise by double digits this week, and the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers take a hard tumble. The pundits, however, didn’t see a big change with the Packers. Otherwise they agreed, giving boosts to the Patriots and downgrading the Dolphins and Steelers.

Now let’s look at the grades for the week:

Cruncher Grades for Week 5

Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC Teams

Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE
Rams
4-0
B+
(B+)
B-
(B-)
A
(A-)
B+
(B)
A-
(A)
Ravens
3-1
B
(B-)
B-
(C+)
B-
(C+)
A
(B)
B+
(B+)
Chiefs
4-0
B-
(B-)
B+
(B+)
B-
(B+)
B-
(C+)
C+
(C+)
Bears
3-1
B-
(C)
C
(C-)
B
(C+)
B-
(C-)
B+
(C+)
Jaguars
3-1
B-
(C+)
C+
(C+)
B-
(C+)
C+
(C-)
B
(C+)
Bengals
3-1
C+
(C+)
C
(C)
C+
(B-)
B+
(B)
C+
(C+)
Panthers
2-1
C+
(C+)
C+
(C+)
C+
(C+)
C+
(C+)
C+
(C+)
Saints
3-1
C+
(C+)
B-
(B-)
C+
(C)
C
(C+)
C+
(C)
Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE
Patriots
2-2
C+
(C-)
B-
(B-)
C
(C-)
C
(D)
C+
(C-)
Redskins
2-1
C+
(C+)
C
(C)
C+
(C+)
C
(C)
B-
(B-)
Eagles
2-2
C+
(C+)
B
(B+)
C
(C)
C
(C+)
C
(C)
Falcons
1-3
C
(C)
C+
(C+)
C-
(C-)
C
(C+)
C
(C)
Packers
2-1-1
C
(C-)
C
(C-)
C+
(C-)
C
(D+)
C+
(C-)
Chargers
2-2
C
(C)
C+
(C)
C+
(C)
C
(C)
C
(C-)
Titans
3-1
C
(C)
C
(C)
C-
(C-)
C
(C-)
C
(C)
Steelers
1-2-1
C
(C+)
C+
(B-)
C
(C)
C
(C+)
C-
(C)
Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE
Dolphins
3-1
C
(C+)
C
(C)
C+
(B+)
C-
(C+)
C
(B-)
Seahawks
2-2
C
(C)
C+
(C)
D+
(C-)
C
(C)
C
(C)
Jets
1-3
C
(C+)
D+
(C-)
C
(C+)
C
(C+)
C
(C+)
Broncos
2-2
C
(C)
C-
(C-)
C
(C)
C
(C)
C-
(C-)
Colts
1-3
C
(C)
D+
(D+)
C
(C)
C
(C+)
C
(C)
Cowboys
2-2
C-
(C-)
C
(C)
C-
(C)
C-
(C-)
C-
(C-)
Vikings
1-2-1
C-
(C-)
C+
(C+)
C-
(C)
D+
(D)
C-
(C-)
Texans
1-3
C-
(C-)
D
(D-)
C
(C+)
C-
(D)
C-
(C-)
Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE
49ers
1-3
C-
(C-)
C-
(C-)
C
(C)
C-
(D+)
C-
(C-)
Raiders
1-3
C-
(C-)
D+
(D+)
C
(C-)
C-
(C)
C-
(D)
Buccaneers
2-2
C-
(C+)
C
(C)
D+
(C)
C-
(B-)
C-
(C+)
Lions
1-3
C-
(C-)
C
(C)
D+
(D+)
D+
(D+)
C-
(C-)
Browns
1-2-1
C-
(C-)
F
(F)
D+
(C-)
C
(C+)
C
(C)
Giants
1-3
D+
(C-)
D
(D+)
C-
(C-)
C-
(C-)
C-
(C-)
Bills
1-3
D-
(D+)
C-
(C)
F
(F+)
D-
(C-)
F+
(D)
Cardinals
0-4
D-
(D-)
D+
(D+)
D
(F+)
D-
(D)
F
(F)
Grades in parentheses are the previous week's grade.
Other questions?
Read the True Power Rankings Methodology

Now that we’re a quarter of the way through the season, we can give the crunchers a little more credit for what they say. And here we see that the both the Chiefs and Jaguars are facing their toughest test of the season this Sunday.

Both teams have faced four average (or below average) opponents thus far: the Chiefs have played the Chargers, Steelers, 49ers and Broncos, while the Jaguars have played the Giants (below average), Patriots, Titans and Jets. The only obvious difference is that the Chiefs have prevailed in all four of their games, while the Jaguars lost to the Titans. Still... it ought to be a barn-burner at Arrowhead on Sunday afternoon!

Enjoy the game, and starting on Tuesday, we’ll see how the result from that game — and those from all the Week 5 games — shakes things up.