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Week 7 True Power Rankings: Chiefs hold steady in second

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On Tuesday, the pundits thought the Chiefs took a step back this week, but the crunchers have a different opinion

This week, the Kansas City Chiefs losing to the New England Patriots on Sunday night moved the needle with the pundit rankings we examined on Tuesday — although not in a way we’d like — but the number-crunchers saw it differently. Thanks to a good showing with the crunchers, the Chiefs remain in second place overall behind the Los Angeles Rams.

Let’s start with how the number-crunchers see the NFL in Week 7:

Cruncher Power Rankings for Week 7

Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC Teams

Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE
1
(1)
Rams
6-0
3
(2)
2
(1)
2
(2)
2
(1)
2
(2)
Chiefs
5-1
1
(1)
1
(3)
3
(3)
5
(5)
3
(3)
Ravens
4-2
7
(8)
4
(6)
1
(1)
1
(2)
4
(7)
Saints
4-1
5
(4)
7
(4)
9
(13)
4
(11)
5
(4)
Bears
3-2
17
(17)
3
(2)
4
(4)
3
(3)
6
(10)
Chargers
4-2
9
(11)
5
(5)
7
(14)
7
(13)
7
(5)
Patriots
4-2
2
(3)
9
(9)
10
(9)
9
(6)
8
(8)
Steelers
3-2-1
6
(6)
10
(10)
6
(8)
12
(12)
Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE
9
(17)
Eagles
3-3
4
(5)
17
(21)
13
(26)
11
(18)
10
(14)
Seahawks
3-3
10
(14)
27
(29)
5
(9)
6
(14)
10
(9)
Bengals
4-2
15
(13)
12
(11)
8
(5)
13
(8)
10
(10)
Panthers
3-2
10
(7)
11
(11)
13
(15)
14
(10)
13
(20)
Cowboys
3-3
13
(16)
20
(23)
12
(22)
8
(21)
14
(12)
Jets
3-3
23
(24)
16
(17)
11
(7)
10
(9)
15
(15)
Dolphins
4-2
19
(21)
6
(6)
17
(16)
20
(24)
16
(6)
Jaguars
3-3
14
(10)
15
(8)
18
(6)
22
(7)
Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE
17
(19)
Vikings
3-2-1
8
(9)
21
(24)
23
(26)
18
(22)
17
(18)
Packers
3-2-1
21
(23)
14
(13)
20
(18)
15
(17)
19
(13)
Redskins
3-2
17
(22)
22
(22)
18
(12)
16
(4)
20
(26)
Falcons
2-4
12
(12)
24
(27)
26
(30)
21
(25)
21
(23)
Broncos
2-4
28
(27)
13
(16)
15
(19)
28
(29)
22
(23)
Lions
2-3
16
(17)
30
(31)
21
(23)
19
(20)
22
(21)
Texans
3-3
26
(29)
18
(15)
25
(21)
17
(19)
24
(27)
49ers
1-5
27
(26)
8
(14)
28
(29)
25
(27)
Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE
25
(23)
Colts
1-5
30
(30)
19
(18)
21
(20)
24
(23)
26
(28)
Buccaneers
2-3
22
(19)
26
(28)
23
(24)
26
(28)
27
(21)
Browns
2-3-1
32
(32)
28
(25)
16
(11)
23
(16)
27
(15)
Titans
3-3
20
(15)
25
(20)
27
(17)
27
(15)
29
(29)
Giants
1-5
31
(31)
23
(19)
31
(24)
29
(26)
30
(32)
Cardinals
1-5
25
(25)
31
(30)
29
(31)
31
(31)
31
(30)
Raiders
1-5
29
(28)
29
(26)
30
(28)
30
(30)
32
(31)
Bills
2-4
24
(20)
32
(32)
32
(32)
32
(32)
Numbers in parentheses are the previous week's ranking.
The left-hand column is the average of all rankings.
Other questions?
Read the True Power Rankings Methodology

While remaining in the second spot of the Cruncher rankings, the Chiefs made good inroads, and are behind the Rams by only a whisker.

Elo still has the Chiefs first, with the Patriots right behind them. The Rams fell to third. That’s what happens with Elo — the Patriots moved up by beating a team Elo favored to win, while the Rams lost ground by narrowly defeating the Denver Broncos, a team Elo doesn’t like very much. In DVOA, the Chiefs moved up two spots — with the Chiefs now in the top spot — while the Rams dropped one position. Note that even after a loss, the Chiefs could move up; DVOA doesn’t care which team actually wins a game, but only about how the teams play in different situations. Finally, a loss by only three points kept the Chiefs steady in both PE and SRS.

With all that, the Rams held on to the top spot by only 0.25 ranking points.

The Dallas Cowboys had the biggest gain with the crunchers, moving up seven positions after their 40-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. SRS — and especially PE — liked that big point margin a lot, but Elo and DVOA were less impressed. The Atlanta Falcons posted the next-best average gain, moving up six spots. The Tennessee Titans and the Jaguars had the biggest average drops.

Now let’s look at the Week 7 True Power Rankings — the average of the Pundit Power Rankings from Tuesday and this week’s Cruncher Power Rankings.

True Power Rankings for Week 7

Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC Teams

Rank Team Pundits Crunchers
1
(1)
Rams
6-0
1
(1)
1
(1)
2
(2)
Chiefs
5-1
3
(2)
2
(2)
3
(4)
Saints
4-1
3
(3)
4
(7)
4
(3)
Patriots
4-2
2
(4)
7
(5)
5
(7)
Ravens
4-2
7
(11)
3
(3)
6
(11)
Chargers
4-2
5
(10)
6
(10)
7
(10)
Steelers
3-2-1
9
(13)
8
(8)
8
(12)
Eagles
3-3
8
(12)
9
(17)
Rank Team Pundits Crunchers
9
(6)
Bears
3-2
14
(8)
5
(4)
10
(8)
Bengals
4-2
10
(7)
10
(9)
11
(9)
Panthers
3-2
11
(5)
10
(10)
12
(13)
Vikings
3-2-1
6
(9)
17
(19)
13
(14)
Packers
3-2-1
11
(14)
17
(18)
14
(17)
Dolphins
4-2
15
(16)
15
(15)
15
(18)
Seahawks
3-3
18
(20)
10
(14)
16
(23)
Cowboys
3-3
17
(24)
13
(20)
Rank Team Pundits Crunchers
17
(5)
Jaguars
3-3
13
(6)
16
(6)
18
(15)
Redskins
3-2
16
(17)
19
(13)
19
(19)
Jets
3-3
23
(26)
14
(12)
20
(24)
Falcons
2-4
19
(22)
20
(26)
21
(21)
Texans
3-3
20
(20)
22
(21)
22
(22)
Lions
2-3
22
(19)
22
(23)
23
(16)
Titans
3-3
21
(15)
27
(15)
24
(26)
Broncos
2-4
26
(25)
21
(23)
Rank Team Pundits Crunchers
25
(20)
Browns
2-3-1
23
(18)
27
(21)
26
(25)
Buccaneers
2-3
25
(22)
26
(28)
27
(29)
49ers
1-5
30
(31)
24
(27)
28
(27)
Colts
1-5
27
(27)
25
(23)
29
(28)
Giants
1-5
29
(28)
29
(29)
30
(30)
Bills
2-4
28
(29)
32
(31)
31
(32)
Cardinals
1-5
31
(32)
30
(32)
32
(31)
Raiders
1-5
32
(30)
31
(30)
Numbers in parentheses are the previous week's ranking.
The left-hand column is the average of all rankings.
Other questions?
Read the True Power Rankings Methodology

As you can see, the Chiefs are still ranked second in the Week 7 True Power Rankings — still tops in the AFC, and further ahead of the Los Angeles Chargers than the pundits think by themselves.

Even after beating the Chiefs, the Patriots dropped a spot in the final rankings. The Baltimore Ravens moved up a couple of spots — the crunchers still love them, and the pundits continue to slowly catch on.

The Cowboys jumped furthest ahead, picking up seven positions in the final rankings. The Jaguars took a hard fall.

The pundits and the crunchers still strongly disagree about the Minnesota Vikings. The crunchers have the Vikings in the middle of the pack at 17th, but the pundits have them at sixth. The New York Jets remain in this conversation, too. The pundits moved the Jets up three spots, and the crunchers dropped them two places.

Ready for your reality-check? Let’s take a look at the cruncher grades:

Cruncher Grades for Week 7

Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC Teams

Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE
Rams
6-0
B+
(B+)
B
(B)
B+
(A-)
A-
(A-)
B+
(B+)
Ravens
4-2
B+
(B)
B-
(C+)
B
(C+)
A-
(A-)
A-
(B+)
Chiefs
5-1
B
(B+)
B
(B+)
B+
(B+)
B
(B+)
C+
(B-)
Bears
3-2
B-
(B)
C
(C)
B
(B+)
B
(B)
B
(B+)
Saints
4-1
C+
(C+)
B-
(B)
C+
(C+)
C+
(C)
C+
(C+)
Chargers
4-2
C+
(C+)
C+
(C+)
B-
(C+)
C+
(C)
C+
(C)
Patriots
4-2
C+
(C+)
B
(B)
C+
(C+)
C+
(C+)
C+
(C+)
Steelers
3-2-1
C+
(C+)
B-
(C+)
C+
(C+)
B-
(C+)
C+
(C)
Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE
Eagles
3-3
C+
(C)
B
(B-)
C
(C)
C
(C-)
C+
(C)
Bengals
4-2
C+
(C+)
C
(C+)
C+
(C)
C+
(C+)
C+
(C+)
Seahawks
3-3
C+
(C)
C+
(C)
C-
(D+)
B-
(C+)
C+
(C)
Cowboys
3-3
C
(C-)
C+
(C)
C
(C-)
C
(C-)
C+
(C-)
Panthers
3-2
C
(C+)
C+
(C+)
C+
(C)
C
(C)
C
(C+)
Jets
3-3
C
(C)
C-
(C-)
C
(C)
C+
(C+)
C+
(C+)
Dolphins
4-2
C
(C)
C
(C-)
C+
(C+)
C
(C)
C-
(C-)
Vikings
3-2-1
C
(C-)
C+
(C+)
C-
(C-)
C-
(C-)
C
(C-)
Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE
Packers
3-2-1
C
(C)
C
(C-)
C
(C)
C-
(C-)
C
(C)
Jaguars
3-3
C
(C+)
C
(C+)
C
(C+)
C-
(C+)
C-
(C+)
Redskins
3-2
C
(C)
C
(C-)
C-
(C-)
C-
(C)
C
(B)
Falcons
2-4
C-
(C-)
C+
(C+)
C-
(C-)
C-
(D+)
C-
(C-)
Texans
3-3
C-
(C-)
C-
(D+)
C
(C)
C-
(C-)
C
(C)
Broncos
2-4
C-
(C-)
D+
(D+)
C
(C)
C
(C-)
C-
(D+)
49ers
1-5
C-
(C-)
D+
(D+)
C+
(C)
C-
(D+)
C-
(C-)
Lions
2-3
C-
(C-)
C
(C)
D
(D)
C-
(C-)
C
(C-)
Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE
Titans
3-3
C-
(C)
C
(C)
C-
(C)
C-
(C-)
C-
(C)
Buccaneers
2-3
C-
(C-)
C-
(C)
C-
(D+)
C-
(C-)
C-
(C-)
Colts
1-5
C-
(C-)
D
(D)
C
(C)
C-
(C-)
C-
(C-)
Browns
2-3-1
D+
(C-)
F+
(F+)
D+
(C-)
C
(C+)
C-
(C)
Giants
1-5
D+
(C-)
D
(D)
C-
(C)
D
(C-)
D+
(C-)
Cardinals
1-5
D
(D+)
C-
(C-)
D
(D)
D+
(D+)
D-
(D-)
Raiders
1-5
D
(D+)
D
(D+)
D
(C-)
D
(C-)
D
(D+)
Bills
2-4
D
(D)
C-
(C)
F+
(F+)
D
(D-)
D-
(F+)
Grades in parentheses are the previous week's grade.
Other questions?
Read the True Power Rankings Methodology

According to the crunchers, the Chiefs slipped slightly — but not significantly — and remain in the conversation about the NFL’s best teams.

We also see that despite their 3-2 record, the Chicago Bears might be a better team than they are being credited.

So it’s on to the Week 7 games, and we’ll see what happens. On Tuesday, we’ll start figuring it all out again.