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Here we are for another installment of chiefStats — the place where I toss a few stats into the wind before the Chiefs’ upcoming game. I’m hopeful this article can work its way into many Chiefs fan’s pregame rituals.
Last week we talked about the 49ers having issues protecting Jimmy Garoppolo and it came to be a reality with the Chiefs accumulating four sacks over the course of the game.
Now our focus turns towards the Broncos, and below are five topics which may alter the outcome of the game:
1. No fly zone
The Broncos defense has been crumbling over the past two seasons. What was once known as the “No Fly Zone” is now offering discounted frequent flier miles.
Note, the numbers in the parentheses are ranks:
Broncos Pass Defense 2015-2018
| Year | Pass Y/A (rank) | QB Rating | Points Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pass Y/A (rank) | QB Rating | Points Allowed |
| 2015 | 6.2(1) | 78.8(4) | 18.5(4) |
| 2016 | 5.8(1) | 69.7(1) | 18.6(4) |
| 2017 | 6.9(14) | 91.9(20) | 23.9(22) |
| 2018 | 8.2(26) | 102.2(23) | 23.3(16) |
After the departure of Wade Phillips the Broncos defense has not been the same. So when Chris Harris Jr. says the following...
“Patrick Mahomes hasn’t seen a defense like us.”
...I don’t really buy into it.
Each quarterback the Broncos have faced in 2018 has had a passer rating over 90. That list of quarterbacks includes Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, and Joe Flacco.
Furthermore, Carr went off against the Broncos when compared to how he has played against other teams so far this season.
In 2018
— Gary McKenzie (@Super_G_Chiefs) September 27, 2018
Derek Carr's QB rating vs Denver = 114.6
Carr's rating vs everyone else = 73.2
So whatever it was the Broncos showed Carr, he must have really liked it. With the Broncos giving up big numbers to the likes of Flacco and Carr, I’m guessing Mahomes is going to like what the Broncos show him too.
2. A small streak
It’s only a five-game sample, but the Chiefs have had their way with the Broncos in their past five matchups:
In their past 5 matchups, the Chiefs are 5-0 against the Broncos while scoring 30 points per game.
— Gary McKenzie (@Super_G_Chiefs) September 28, 2018
If Andy Reid was able to scheme 30 points a game against the Broncos during this time frame with Alex Smith, then I’m pretty curious what Reid will be able to do with Patrick Mahomes slinging the ball all over the field.
We’re only two points into this article and all signs are pointing to the Chiefs putting a good chunk of points on the board.
3. Average to below average
Every week, while building these articles, I do research to see what strengths or weaknesses a team may have.
While looking at the Broncos, I noticed their stats were chock full of average to below average rankings. The following list are stats in which the Broncos are either average, or below average.
Broncos are average and boring
| Stat | Rank |
|---|---|
| Stat | Rank |
| Points Scored | 20 |
| Yards Gained | 12 |
| Turnovers Lost | 20 |
| First Downs | 16 |
| Passing Yards | 16 |
| Passing TDs | 22 |
| INT thrown | 27 |
| Passing NY/A | 15 |
| Drive Score% | 23 |
| Points Allowed | 16 |
| Yards Allowed | 13 |
| Turnovers Forced | 18 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 21 |
| Pass TDs Allowed | 14 |
| INT Forced | 16 |
| Defensive NY/A | 22 |
| Defensive Score% Allowed | 18 |
So what we’re getting here is a whole steaming pile of “unimpressiveness.”
The Broncos can talk and talk and talk all they want, but I see this team for what they currently are — average to below average.
4. Running game
Aha! We found something the Broncos are good at — the run game.
The Broncos are fifth in the NFL while averaging 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. I checked to see if the Broncos rushing yard numbers were due to poor competition, and that could be the case.
The Broncos have faced the Raiders (5.1 Y/A allowed - 28th), the Seahawks (5.1 Y/A allowed - 28th), and the Ravens (4.2 Y/A allowed - 16th) so far in 2018. Each of these teams, as you can see, has not done a great job stopping the run.
However, it’s important to note the Chiefs are allowing 5.2 yards per rush, and the Broncos may have success running against yet another bad run defense.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos have been allowing 3.3 yards per rushing attempt, which is good for second in the NFL.
When you look closer at the Broncos opponents, the Raiders are 26th in the NFL with 3.6 Y/A, the Seahawks are 30th in the NFL with 3.3 Y/A, and the Ravens are 31st in the NFL with 3.1 Y/A.
Long story short, the Broncos run defense may look good because they haven’t faced a quality rushing team yet. We’ll know more on Sunday, but I’m hopeful Kareem Hunt can pick up his numbers in Denver.
5. Miller vs Schwartz
This one will be brief, but there was a reason the Chiefs signed Mitchell Schwartz from Cleveland after seeing how he played against Von Miller.
In their last 3 matchups, Von Miller has zero sacks against the Chiefs. Mitchell Schwartz has done a great job keeping Miller at bay.
— Gary McKenzie (@Super_G_Chiefs) September 28, 2018
I always enjoy this “game within the game” when the Chiefs play the Broncos. Here’s to Schwartz having another solid outing against Miller, where Miller doesn’t receive a single sack.
That ends it for this week against the Broncos, what are your key stats/topics for the upcoming game?