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Chiefs win prediction for 2018 is a tricky one

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell projected the Vegas over / under numbers for each NFL team, including the Kansas City Chiefs. I’m going to be fascinated by the Chiefs win predictions this year because there’s a lot going on there with the possible switch of Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes.

Barnwell projects the Chiefs over / under at nine wins which feels a little high if Mahomes is starting and a little low if Alex is starting. So right in the middle.

The Chiefs have posted winning records in each of their five seasons with coach Andy Reid, which would make this nine-win line conservative if it weren’t for the likelihood of Alex Smith being traded. Kansas City will turn over its offense to Patrick Mahomes, which should be exciting -- and occasionally terrifying -- based on what we saw in Week 17. The defense might improve with the returns from injuries of Eric Berry and Dee Ford, but the Chiefs still have holes they’ll have to cover up and will likely move on from longtime contributors Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson for cap reasons.

Whether it’s Alex or Mahomes, the Chiefs still have Andy Reid so it’s unlikely they’re going to go 3-13 or anything like that. I imagine they’ll be in a similar position as this year fighting for their playoff lives in December.