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I have predicted the Chiefs record the last 3 seasons. Here’s what will happen in 2017

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It’s time to predict the Kansas City Chiefs 2017 season record. I have predicted the Chiefs record for the past three seasons.

Don’t believe me? Here’s the proof:

Excuse me while I pat myself on the back (and while I ignore the luck factor).

It’s kind of fun going back in time and reading the comments and seeing everyone’s predictions over the years. The ONLY reason this prediction has worked is because Alex Smith and Andy Reid are so consistent. Really it’s absurd how consistent they are over the course of an entire season.

Methodology

We’re going to use the same methodology for predicting the Chiefs record as we have in the past few seasons. Essentially we’ll be taking Andy Reid’s record in Kansas City vs non-playoff and playoff teams and then use those numbers to predict the Chiefs record.

To start, I need to rank each team on the Chiefs schedule as a for sure playoff team, a possible playoff team, and a team that most likely won’t make the playoffs.

Chiefs 2017 Schedule

Opponent Playoff Team?
Opponent Playoff Team?
Patriots Yes
Eagles Maybe
Chargers Maybe
Redskins Maybe
Texans Maybe
Steelers Yes
Raiders Maybe
Broncos Maybe
Cowboys Maybe
Giants Maybe
Bills No
Jets No
Raiders Maybe
Chargers Maybe
Dolphins No
Broncos Maybe

This is a strange season for the Chiefs. There are a large number of teams on the schedule who can potentially make the playoffs. From this count we have:

  • Maybe: 11
  • No: 3
  • Yes: 2

There’s a problem with these though....

Fixing Some Numbers

The Maybe teams are a big problem, here’s why: The Chiefs play four NFC East teams all who are “Maybe.” There won’t be four NFC East teams in the playoffs. In fact I’d argue there could be at most two. To correct this I’ll alter the NFC East teams to include one Yes, one Maybe, and two No. This changes our totals to:

  • Maybe: 8
  • No: 5
  • Yes: 3

Moving on to the AFC teams, we have a problem with the AFC West. I would argue two teams from the AFC West are likely to make the playoffs given the AFC West being a strong division over the past two years. So I’ll change the three AFC West Maybe teams to one Yes, one Maybe, and one No.

This changes our overall totals to:

  • Maybe: 6
  • No: 6
  • Yes: 4

We’ll use these numbers going forward.

Andy Reid vs Playoff and Non-Playoff Teams

The next step is to look at how Andy Reid has performed vs playoff and non-playoff teams in Kansas City. Typically I take the numbers over the entirety of Reid’s career, but since he has a decent body of work in KC I feel comfortable using his numbers with the Chiefs only.

The Chiefs have consistently gotten better vs playoff teams during Andy Reid’s time in Kansas City. This leads us to the first natural question: Will the Chiefs continue to improve against playoff teams?

Going 0.600 against playoff teams last year was a huge accomplishment and I honestly doubt the Chiefs can continue at this clip. However, I do believe it’s fair to estimate that the Chiefs will go 0.500 against playoff teams in 2017.

I picked 0.500 because I don’t think 0.600 is quite feasible, and given some noise from the offseason the Chiefs may take a small step back against top competition.

Against non-playoff teams, Andy Reid has been a monster in Kansas City. The Chiefs have a record of 34-6 against non-playoff teams with Andy Reid as their head coach. That’s a win percentage of 0.850.

The Prediction....

For this prediction we have to do something with the Maybe teams from above. Since there are six Maybe teams and they are a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs we should split them in two. Now we have nine non-playoff teams and seven playoff teams in the Chiefs schedule this year.

Using the win percentages from previous years we can do a little math and come up with our prediction....

9 * (0.850) + 7 * (0.500) = 11.15

There you have it, the Chiefs will go 11-5 in 2017.

Go ahead and put your money down in Vegas. Just kidding, please don’t, I don’t want to be responsible for that (unless you win).