After the KC Chiefs beat the Patriots on Thursday night, my mind started to move to the Eagles game and I wondered: How do Andy Reid and the Chiefs do after a signature win? You know, a victory similar to what they just had.
What exactly is a signature win though? I talked with the Blogfather and he suggested beating a team that finished with 10-plus wins could be a good way to quantify what a signature win is or close to it (the other option was my subjective look at signature wins).
Using Joel’s suggestion I decided to find all of the Chiefs signature wins from 2013 onward and see how the Chiefs have played in their next game. The goal is to see if the Chiefs are susceptible to victory hangovers.
Before we get started I wanted to list three signature wins from my first list I excluded with our 10-plus win rule.
2015 Wild Card @ Texans - This is a signature win because it is a playoff win. I chose to exclude it because I did not want to include postseason games in the data. The Chiefs lost to the Patriots 20-27 in their next game which happened to be a Divisional round playoff game.
2016 Week 1 vs Chargers - This was the crazy comeback game where the Chiefs somehow won. I would consider this a signature win because of how incredible the comeback was but excluded this game from the list because the Chargers finished the year with less than 10 wins. In the Chiefs next game they lost to the Texans 12-19 in what was a pathetic offensive output by the Chiefs.
Below is a list of the signature wins Andy Reid and the Chiefs have accumulated since 2013. I have also included what happened in the next game the Chiefs played.
2013 Week 3 @ Eagles (10-6) - Remember the time the Chiefs defense held Chip Kelly’s unstoppable offense to 16 points? After this game the Chiefs played the Giants at Arrowhead and crushed them 31-7.
2014 Week 4 vs Patriots (12-4) - Remember how Brady and Belichick were done after this game? LOL. Following this game the Chiefs lost in San Francisco to the 49ers by a score of 22-17. The offense played poorly as they accumulated 265 yards of total offense in the game.
2014 Week 11 vs Seahawks (12-4) - This game against the Seahawks was a bruiser. The Chiefs played the 0-10 Raiders the following Thursday and lost. This Raiders game is probably one of the lowest moments in Andy Reid’s tenure in KC.
2015 Week 10 @ Broncos (12-4) - Every Chiefs fan should love this game. This is the game where the Chiefs defense made it apparent that Peyton Manning should probably retire. Following this game the Chiefs kicked ass in San Diego winning 33-3.
2016 Week 6 @ Raiders (12-4) - This game followed the bye week after the Chiefs were slaughtered by the Steelers. There were a lot of question marks before this game started, but the Chiefs handled business against the Raiders. After the Raiders game the Chiefs beat the Saints at Arrowhead, 27-21.
2016 Week 13 @ Falcons (11-5) - We talked about this game briefly above .... man, the Chiefs are going to miss Eric Berry. The following week the Chiefs beat the Raiders at home.
2016 Week 14 vs Raiders (12-4) - This was the second Chiefs win in a row that came against an opponent that finished the season with 10 or more wins. The next week the Chiefs played the Titans in zero degree weather and lost on a last second field goal by Ryan Succop.
So what can be said about all this?
The Chiefs are 4-3 (0.571 win percentage) in games following a signature win. If you include the honorable mention games they are 5-5. For reference, Andy Reid’s career win percentage in Kansas City is 0.677.
I won’t say the 4-3 record is anything to be concerned about at the moment. If one of the games is flipped the Chiefs would be 5-2, so I don’t think the sample size is large enough to give a definitive statement about how Reid and the Chiefs have played after a signature win.
With that said, the Chiefs certainly haven’t dominated in games after a signature win.
The Chiefs have lost two games to middling/bad teams after a signature win (see 2014 Raiders and 2016 Titans.) Given this information the Chiefs had better not be sleeping against the Eagles on Sunday.
If the Chiefs lose to the Eagles it may be fair to say the Chiefs are susceptible to a victory hangover. If the Chiefs win I’d feel comfortable in saying the Chiefs play is consistent regardless of what happened the prior week.