From the FanPosts -Joel

Alex Smith's days in Kansas City appear to be numbered. The Quarterback of the Future is in place in Patrick Mahomes, and the financial incentives to release Smith make it near impossible to see him in red and yellow next year. Looking at Smith's contract the cost to move on from Smith is the exact same whether he is cut or traded at $3.6 million in dead money, saving $17 million.

What kind of return could the Chiefs expect next year for Smith?

First, lets look a little bit at last year's numbers.

Smith
3.1% TD (Percentage of throws resulting in a TD)
1.6% INT (Percentage of throws resulting in an INT)
7.2 Yards/Attempt

Mystery Quarterback
3.1% TD
1.0% INT
7.1 Yards/Attempt

On a per throw basis last season, Alex Smith was Cody Kessler. Both rushed for under 10 yards/game as well (Smith 8.9, Kessler 2.0). Without his legs, the outlook on Smith wasn't good. If Smith has another year like that, we can stop this article right now because the Chiefs will get nothing and Smith will be cut.

But Smith's time in KC has seen ebbs and flows. Even in rushing.

He's followed an above average season with a below average season his entire stint in Kansas City. If the trend continues Smith's is due for a rebound next year. It remains to be seen if last year just follows the trends or if father time is coming for the 33 years old Smith.

Smith's average line in Kansas City is 19 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 3,392 yards passing and 329 yards rushing. With a season line close to that, there will certainly be a market for Smith's services for a year. But what would that return be?

There's not a ton of recent historical data on mid-tier 34 year old quarterbacks being traded.

Sam Bradford (2017 1st round pick, 2018 4th round pick) and Smith (2013 and 2014 2nd round pick) are two similar tiered quarterbacks traded in the last five years. But both of those trades were for players in their late 20's with two cost-controlled seasons remaining.

If anyone trades for Smith, they will inherit $17 million for only one year. The team that could acquire Smith would have to have cap flexibility and a need to stabilize their situation for a year in order to contend. There would need to be a few teams in demand of Smith's services to warrant any trade at all. If there's no demand, just wait until the Chiefs cut him.

Jacksonville will have $27 million in cap space should the decline the option on Blake Bortles. They could be a candidate for drafting a quarterback early.

Washington or San Francisco could be looking for some QB help depending on where Kurt (Kirk) Cousins ends up. Both have around $50 million uncommitted for 2018. It's presumed either one of those teams will end up with Cousins next year. The loser of the Cousins sweepstakes (if you can call it that) also likely looks to draft a quarterback.

The New York Jets have $66 million unaccounted for in 2018. They are the odds on favorite to pick first in the draft and take whatever quarterback they choose. Smith would be a bridge quarterback for them at best.

Minnesota, Buffalo and Arizona could look to draft a quarterback next year, but wouldn't trade for Smith's services considering cap space and they fact they already have players of similar caliber established there or to re-sign. Any of those players entering the market also diminishes Smith's value in a trade.

Maybe if one or both Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger retire that can throw a wrench in things.

A lot could happen before the opportunity arises, but the outlook doesn't look great for the Chiefs to get a return of any kind for Smith. Maybe if one or both Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger retire that can throw a wrench in things. As it sits now, the candidates to trade for him even have a lot of ifs surrounding their potential need. All of this is even contingent on the kind of year Smith has.

With an average year from Smith, I think the Chiefs can net at best a 2018 5th round pick. That scenario doesn't seem likely. A more realistic return would be a conditional 2019 5th round pick that can escalate to a 4th based on performance. There's a pretty good chance they will get nothing in return and have to outright cut him.