Sometimes Google is my friend. I recently stumbled across a post on Reddit that discussed NFL first round QBs over the past 20 years.
The post looks at first round quarterbacks and whether or not they played in their rookie seasons. Over the past 20 years only two first round quarterbacks have not played a single snap in their rookie season: Jason Campbell and Carson Palmer.
Jason Campbell sat behind a 35 year old Mark Brunell and Carson Palmer sat behind a 31 year old Jon Kitna (ohhh the nostalgia!)
Using Pro Football Reference’s play index tool I was able to see there have been 53 quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the past 20 years. So that means less than four percent of first round quarterbacks over the past 20 years have not played a single snap in their rookie season.
If you’re a betting man, the safe money is on Mahomes seeing some snaps in 2017.
The Reddit post went further and explained that of the 53 quarterbacks drafted in the first round only nine of them never started a game during their rookie season: Philip Rivers, Jake Locker, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Brady Quinn, J.P. Losman, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, and Jason Campbell.
Over the past 20 years, roughly 17 percent of first round rookie quarterbacks have not started a single game.
Once again, the odds would suggest Mahomes is more likely to start a game in 2017 than not.
Disclaimer: A lot of those teams who started a rookie quarterback over the past 20 years did not have the same luxuries the Chiefs do with Alex Smith.
We all want Mahomes to sit a year and learn before he’s thrust into the NFL as a starter. No one wants Mahomes’ development stunted because he was pulled out of the smoker too soon.
A lot of people smarter than me believe Mahomes should not see the field until 2018, but history would suggest Mahomes is likely to take some snaps and possibly start a game for the Chiefs in 2017.
If Mahomes does start a game in 2017 it is most likely to take place under less than optimal circumstances, so be careful what you wish for....