There’s usually a roughly 50 percent turnover rate from year to year in the NFL playoffs, which means an average of six teams not making it back to the playoffs. I took a look at last year’s playoff teams and took a stab at predicting how many won’t make it back. I have five of 12 not making it back.
The Patriots are the best bet by far. The Chiefs, Steelers and Raiders all look like pretty good bets to return. The Steelers have made it three years in a row while the Chiefs have made it three of the last four seasons. The Raiders are the newcomers but they still look really good.
The Texans are interesting because of a) the Tony Romo situation and b) their division kinda sucks. If the Colts can become a competent team, they should take down the Romo-less Texans. With Romo? It becomes a lot more interesting.
I wouldn’t bet on the Dolphins making it back. I could see the Broncos making it instead of one of the other two AFC West teams.
I’ll say two teams don’t make it back: Houston and Miami.
I’m not in love with any of these teams. Sure, the Cowboys were really good last year but that felt flukey. They’re still really young. That running game can carry them though. The Falcons are coming off the Super Bowl but they also made the playoffs just once in the last four years. The Seahawks and Packers are probably the strongest bets here but Seattle feels like they’re nearing the end of their dominant run.
The Giants and Lions are the vulnerable ones here.
I’ll say three teams don’t make it back in this group.