From the FanPosts -Joel
My whole existence as a Chiefs fan I've wanted to see them draft a quarterback in the first round of the NFL draft. To this point, that dream has not been realized. There is a glimmer of hope that this could finally be the year we see them pull the trigger on a young signal caller of our own. The infrastructure in place to support a QB to groom into a franchise player is here. I would argue the Chiefs have one of the best situations in the league to support and develop a quarterback. Here is a review of all four of the top guys, how they fit, and a good and bad play from each of them.
Games charted: Florida State, NC State and Stanford
There's been a lot of talk about the limited amount of tape there is on Mitch Trubisky. Only starting for one year at North Carolina, NFL personnel wish they had a larger sample size to pull from. What they do have shows a guy with enough upside to be a top 15 NFL QB. Arm strength is not a problem at all with Trubisky. He can make all the throws and often does it with accuracy. When he's going through his progressions and delivering the ball on time, he is the best in the class. Trubisky doesn't bail from pockets early, keeps his eyes down field and wants to win from the pocket. He has the mobility to create outside of structure, but I'm most impressed with him when he's throwing within in the pocket in rhythm.
The clip below might be my favorite throw of any of the games I've watched. The hashes are wider in college, so field throws are very impressive in the college game. Trubisky shows fearlessness (something that shows up often) to stand in the pocket and deliver a very impressive throw with accuracy to the wide side of the field. Trubisky knows he's going to get hit by the free rusher, but looks pass him to stay in rhythm and deliver an excellent throw.
Trubisky Good: Opposite hash throw with velocity. Sees past free rusher and delivers an accurate throw before being crushed. pic.twitter.com/nm7ZGoYWcx— Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson) February 23, 2017
This is not a common occurrence in the games I've charted of Trubisky, but this is an absolute no-no if you're going to be an NFL QB. Plays like this can cost you a game. In this clip, he loses sight of the safety, assumes he has a free breaking wheel route, and pays dearly. He typically sees the field pretty well, and is able to work through full field progressions, but minor hiccups like this can't happen at the next level.
Trubisky Bad: Completely loses sight of safety and makes a critical mistake. pic.twitter.com/tVBWrneO8G— Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson) February 23, 2017
How he fits in Kansas City: The field would open up more with Trubisky. Throws outside the numbers and in the intermediate would become more prominent. Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin would have more success on dig routes and deep out cuts. He has the vision and arm strength to generate big plays as well to the likes of Tyreek Hill. I anticipate Trubisky being gone before they have a chance (and a trade up would be too rich to get him), but he would fit great in Kansas City.
Games charted: Stanford, Miami and Texas
Kizer's best tape is probably from 2015. More so than this past season, Kizer displayed incredible downfield ability, with some wow throws for big plays for Notre Dame. That's not to say that Kizer wasn't impressive this year (I have him as my second ranked QB), but the expectations surrounding him heading into the 2016 season were not realized. You could very easily make an argument that the tumultuous situation in Notre Dame last year led to the perceived regression. Some of the baseline things you like are still there though in 2016 tape. Kizer works well in the pocket, with subtle adjustments to make accurate throws. He can make all the throws you need to as a high level quarterback. He has the ability to run the football and execute outside of the pocket. He isn't looking to bail early from the pocket and wants to make plays with his arm rather than his legs. He often displays the toughness to remain calm in the face of pressure. The problems magnify when he doesn't, as he will often sail passes and throw off of his back foot. He needs to clean up his decision making and mechanics when he does react to pressure. His accuracy dropped to under 60%, but was better the year before. Ball placement does show up at times with him though.
This is an impressive throw by Kizer. You make your money inside the 20's in the NFL, and this a prime example of a big time play in the red zone. Kizer displays excellent touch and velocity to throw the ball over the underneath defender and between the safeties. He diagnosed the coverage quickly, made the correct read and delivered a beautiful pass. A rare throw.
Kizer Good: You make your money in the RZ. Excellent up and down throw in a tight window. You don't see this often in college. pic.twitter.com/2cZfvbsVPY— Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson) February 23, 2017
Whether or not the corner intercepts this pass, it was a bad throw. If it weren't for the pick, Kizer leaves his receiver out to dry here. He stared down the receiver, tipping the safety to drive on the play. In doing that, he fails to see the corner and the throw gets undercut for an interception. I don't think this is a common occurrence with Kizer, but it is definitely something to clean up moving forward.
Kizer Bad: Whether or not the corner cuts this off or not, it was still a poor decision. Safety crushes him regardless. pic.twitter.com/1fSFP3CHkq— Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson) February 23, 2017
How he fits in Kansas City: Kizer's rookie year could like similar to what 2015 Alex Smith looked. Kizer could contribute to the run game similarly, and can execute a lot of the basic things asked of Alex Smith. He may miss some easier throws than Alex would, but the upside is obvious as a down field passer. Kizer has flashed excellent big play ability in the past. You could expect maybe a lower completion percentage than Alex early on, but the end result could easily be better.
Games charted: Oklahoma, West Virginia and Baylor
I have Mahomes as the third best quarterback in this draft. If he gets the right situation, he could easily be the best in this class, and one of the 5 best QB's in the league at some point in his career. The range of outcomes for him is bigger than anyone in the last several years. Mahomes flashes potentially elite skill sets, but is so unrefined that it makes it difficult to sift through. He has one of the five strongest arms on the planet, has great play making ability in and out of the pocket. There are also reports that he is a very cerebral player. Everyone sees Mahomes as a guy who can just make big throws, but he doesn't get credit for his ability to read a field and find plays in the intermediate as well.
The worries about Mahomes are real and understandable. He hasn't taken snaps from under center in his life, his footwork is all over the place, he trusts his arm too much at times and there aren't a ton of examples of him throwing with great anticipation. If he his given more structure and learns some basics, he could take off and become an excellent quarterback. I have compared him to Matthew Stafford mixed with Russell Wilson with less structure. He uses his arm strength to put balls in places most can't, and can do it well in and out of the pocket. The challenge will be to reign him in without taking away what makes him so good.
There are very few people in this world that can do what Mahomes does in this clip. He leaves the pocket, rolls to his left and generates enough torque to throw a ball 55 yards down the field for a touchdown. Special talent.
Mahomes Good: There are maybe three people on this planet that can do what he does. Rolls left and generates enough torque to throw a TD. pic.twitter.com/HMSuUgWcjN— Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson) February 23, 2017
I should call this "The Awful." This play shows all the things you need to coach out of Mahomes and fix for him to reach his potential. His drop and throwing platform set this play up to fail, but he also tried to improvise, get cute and rush a throw with a poor base. To make things worth, the backer reads the play the entire way. All things that need to cleaned up.
Mahomes Bad: A lot of bad here. Complete lack of mechanics, trusting arm too much and a bad decision. LB reads it the whole way. pic.twitter.com/IA0ZhinSHH— Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson) February 23, 2017
How he fits in Kansas City: Mahomes is committed to solving some of the base line things he has to do to become a solid NFL quarterback. He is working tirelessly to improve. I'm not counting this guy out as being able to do enough to play right away if he had to, although I think he would greatly benefit from sitting a year. If thrust into a position to play, Andy Reid would be a perfect fit for him. Mahomes could execute the screen game at a higher level than Alex Smith. His ability to get the ball out quickly, accurately and with velocity could actually improve this element. He also could create big plays down field with Tyreek Hill, and that threat should soften coverage enough to give Mahomes easier passing lanes. I would prefer he sit a year, but a Reid/Mahomes marriage could provide Chiefs fans what they so desperately want.
Games charted: Ohio State, Florida State and Louisville
Most perceived Watson as a top 5 pick heading into the year. So did I. He's performed his best on big stages and led Clemson to a National Title. There are a lot of intangibles about Deshaun Watson that get people excited and I don't blame. He's a high-character strong leader and a good football player. Watson is a poised passer, pretty dynamic runner and a tough minded football player. He displays good accuracy. While there are a lot of things to like, there are definitely things to be desired. He has good enough arm talent, but I wouldn't consider him strong armed. His throwing base is too wide, and because of that the trajectory of the throws leaves a lot of throws tipped at the line of scrimmage. His down field accuracy isn't great, but he is good in the short and intermediate.
Completion percentage isn't everything. Ball placement is. All completed passes aren't created equal. That's why the likes of Kirk Cousins and Ryan Fitzpatrick have been praised way more than they should at times in their career. What Watson does in this play is really nice, and a likely staple in what you should expect from his as an NFL QB. With the pocket condensing to his arm side, Watson stays poised, stays on top of the football and delivers a beautiful slant from a tight window. It was a near perfectly placed football allowing for a great run after the catch opportunity.
Watson Good: Excellent delivery in limited pocket space. Didn't panic, stayed on top of the football, great placement for big play. pic.twitter.com/VuXTHTSKNl— Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson) February 23, 2017
The first play of the National Semifinal against Ohio State is one Watson would like to have back. He attempts to throw a corner route from the far hash to his best receiver, Mike Williams. Watson showed great trust in his best offensive weapon all season, but he didn't give him a chance to make a play. Even if Williams falls down, this pass likely gets picked. Instead of putting the ball in a place only Williams has a chance to catch it, he throws short of the landmark and inside. Based on the position the corner had, this was also a poor decision. The play above is actually the very next throw he delivers.
Watson Bad: Likely picked whether or not receiver fell down. Ball placement was really poor. Underthrown and inside. pic.twitter.com/REg48YD7Yp— Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson) February 23, 2017
How he fits in Kansas City: I think the Chiefs have close to the 32 year old version of Deshaun Watson on their roster already. There are a lot of similarities to Alex Smith and Deshaun Watson. The use of their legs are similar, the concepts they thrive with are similar. If you go back and watch Alex Smith tape from his time at Utah, you'll see similarities. They both are better in the short passing game . However, I do believe Watson's ceiling is higher. While both are not great passing outside the numbers, Watson displays and possesses more potential there. He also seems more willing to push the ball down the field, a major issue with Smith's performance. If you could get similar production to last year for a small portion of the price tag on Alex Smith, there's value in that as well.
1. Mitch Trubisky
2. Deshone Kizer
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. Deshaun Watson
I would be happy to see any of them in Kansas City next year.